One interesting thing in the IMF report I mentioned recently forecasting a significant productivity slowdown: the positive effects of AI on productivity and the negative effects of inefficient trade technology were shown offsetting each other. Meanwhile, Eric Posner is concerned that humans will have psychological difficulties leaving lives of leisure after the AI-driven productivity revolution, and after our political system correctly decides to redistribute the resulting wealth to everyone. I know, this could be a medium-term pain, long-term gain sort of thing. But how do we know the long term will come? And this kind of thinking clearly ignores the existential threats like climate change and biological weapons, unless you assume the AI productivity revolution will dispatch those threats without creating new ones.
According to the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, maybe. And not just since Covid, but the world has been slowing since the 2008 financial crisis. They say it’s due to demographics (aging population, shrinking work force), “misallocation of resources” (low capital investment?), “fragmentation” (moving away from free trade?) and slowing innovation as measured by total factor productivity. Well crap. So we should have been investing in education, infrastructure, research and development all this time? Instead we let big business capture the political system, stifle competition and innovation, and starve the public realm apparently. Which is not even in their best interests in the long run. Our society is gradually slipping, and each time there is a crisis we are not able to bounce back all the way to our previous trend. Now we are looking at a looming food crisis and the loss of our coastal urban centers all over the world. And we are stupid enough to get ourselves into wars on top of all this.
This article explains the U.S. policy of being intentionally vague about defending Taiwan. It is all about maximizing deterrence. Historically, the idea was both the deter China from any attack, but also to deter Taiwan from a declaration of independence that would be likely to provoke an attack. Going forward, this article suggests arming Taiwan to the teeth and encircling China by stationing U.S. forces in Japan, the Philippines and Australia.
I don’t know – not being a foreign policy expert but not wanting war or especially nuclear war, I might focus on convincing China that the U.S. is not a threat to them as long as they do not threaten Taiwan. And keep reducing our nuclear stockpile so they don’t feel like they have to keep growing theirs, and consider a no first strike policy.
Formalizing the U.S. alliance with other countries in the region sounds a bit NATO-like, and look how well that has been working for Europe.
A strain of flu infecting wild birds now seems to be pretty widespread in cows. The concern is not so much that cows will infect humans, but that this shows the virus can evolve and spread from birds to mammals, where it can evolve again. It doesn’t sound too dangerous in its current form given the vaccines available.
Most frightening and/or depressing story: Ralph Nader says the civilian carnage in Gaza is an order of magnitude worse than even the Gaza authorities say it is. Which is almost unthinkably horrible if true, and makes the Israeli public statements about collateral damage seem even less credible. However even handed you try to be in considering this war could be a proportionate response to the original gruesome attack, it is getting harder.
Most hopeful story: Yes, there are some fun native (North American) wildflowers you can grow from bulbs. Let’s give the environmental and geopolitical doom and gloom a rest for a moment and cultivate our gardens.
Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: I looked into Belarus, and now I am just a little bit less ignorant, which is nice.
Here’s where we stand as I write this on April 3, 2024. Sure, there are all sorts of reasons the polls might be wrong and it is a long time until election day…but I would rather be ahead in the polls and saying that than behind, wouldn’t you? Or even behind and getting less behind.
STATE
2020 RESULT
Most Recent Real Clear Politics Poll Average (as of 4/3/24)
Arizona
Biden +0.4%
Trump +5.2% (March 1: Trump +5.5)
Georgia
Biden +0.3%
Trump +4.5% (March 1: Trump +6.5)
Wisconsin
Biden +0.6%
Trump +0.6% (March 1: Trump +1.0%)
North Carolina
Trump +1.3%
Trump +4.6% (March 1: Trump +5.7%)
Pennsylvania
Biden +1.2%
Trump +0.6% (March 1: Biden +0.8%)
Michigan
Biden +2.8%
Trump +3.4% (March 1: Trump +3.6%)
Nevada
Biden +2.4%
Trump +3.2% (March 1: Trump +7.7%)
The electoral college vote, as it stands at the moment, would be 312 for Trump to 226 for Biden. (March 1: 293 for Trump to 245 for Biden)
So the verdict is…Biden behind but getting less behind in every swing state (6 out of 7) except Pennsylvania. The Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina moves are all more than 1% towards Biden. Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan are less than 1% towards Biden. The Pennsylvania move is less than 1% towards Trump, but because this flips the state from slight Biden to slight Trump, Trump now leads all swing states and the electoral college looks even worse for Biden than a month ago.
Have we gone from “it’s the economy, stupid” to “it’s the rate of change in the rate of change in the price of groceries, compared to the rate of change of the rate of change in the price of groceries two years ago, stupid”? Maybe it’s that simple. Sure, there is plenty going on in the world in terms of war and peace and the collapsing biosphere that supports all life. But we are Americans, and we don’t base our votes on these things. At least not enough of us, enough of the time to make a difference compared to the damn price of groceries. All things being equal, I would wager on this trend continuing over the next seven months. Of course, all things will probably not be equal – a significant recession that throws a significant number of voters out of work would be the worst possible thing for Biden. Because it doesn’t matter so much how much the damn groceries cost if you have no money at all. On the other hand, most other crises might tend to give Biden a chance to show some leadership, which at least some voters might like. And of course, Biden and/or Trump could drop dead at any time. I am not predicting any of these things, just defining a range of things that could happen.
“Free trade” seems to have gone out of fashion at the moment. But this article in The Conversation makes the point that easing trade restrictions with countries sending large numbers of migrants to the U.S. could help. And not just at the margins – the study this article says that reducing restrictions on just textiles from just six countries could potentially reduce migration to the U.S. by two-thirds. This seems like a political win-win to me – there is something in it for the anti-immigration racists, the pro-cheap-labor big business interests, and the average Joes who just want cheap stuff. This worked brilliantly when we were trying to support our Cold War allies in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan back when they were developing countries. It worked when we were trying to rebuild Western Europe. It can work again.
I got through Peter Turchin’s book End Times. It is definitely an interesting book. To summarize, organized human societies tend to develop a “wealth pump” whereby the wealthy and powerful influence the rules of the game to appropriate an ever larger share of a society’s wealth and power for themselves, at the expense of ordinary people. “Ordinary people” is not just the median or what we think of as the “middle class”, it is the bottom 90% of the wealth and income distribution. He shows hard evidence that the policies enacted in the U.S. represent the preferences of the top 10%. Not only are the preferences of the median citizen under-represented, they have NO statistical bearing on what is actually enacted. This situation tends to eventually reach a point of instability unless intentional and effective steps are taken to “shut down the wealth pump”, which happens occasionally. Instability can sometimes look like outright collapse into chaos, but it can also look like fracturing or breakup of a society into smaller entities, as happened with the “fall” of the Roman empire.
What makes the book a little different than other “cyclical theories of history” is first that he backs it up with statistical evidence gathered from many societies over a long period of time. Second, it is not the “immiseration” of the common people that leads to instability, but actually the growth of the “elites” due to the wealth pump. At some point, there are more elites that want to be in power than available positions of power. They fight amongst themselves, and their rhetoric may allow them to gain a following among the masses, but their preferences and interests still represent the rich and powerful class of which they are a part, and switching from one elite faction to another will not shut down the wealth pump.
These works also got me interested in science fiction not just as a form of entertainment, which it certainly is, but as a way to further expand my imagination. Some science fiction is painful to read, but the best science fiction expands your imagination painlessly as you are being entertained, and Vinge was just a fantastic storyteller, maybe even the best ever. I love Rainbow’s End as much for being a great novel as for opening my eyes to what augmented reality could mean as it begins to take hold. A Fire Upon the Deep and A Deepness in the Sky are two of my absolute favorite books, and Children of the Sky is also wonderful for everyone who loves A Fire Upon the Deep. Rest in peace, Vernor Vinge.
I thought the State of the Union went okay for Biden. No doubt, a medically appropriate dose of a 100% legal methamphetamine prescribed by a doctor could help a person get through something like that.
Oh, but the Onion captures the spirit put out by the other party’s senile candidate so well…
