Category Archives: Year in Review

2023 in Review

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Warning: This post is not 100% family friendly and profanity free. 2023 was just not that kind of year!

I’ll start with a personal note. After 24+ years of engineering consulting practice, I have decided to leave the world of full-time professional employment and go back to school for a bit. This is some combination of mid-life crisis and post-Covid working parent burnout. I spent a lot of time thinking about it, ran all the financial numbers, and decided I can swing it for a year or so without major implications for my eventual retirement 15-ish years down the line. So, gentle reader, you too can do this sort of thing if you want to. Just be patient, plan, prepare, do the math, and be rational about it.

The Year’s Posts

Stories I picked as “most frightening or depressing”:

  • JANUARY: How about a roundup of awful things, like the corrupt illegitimate U.S. Supreme Court, ongoing grisly wars, the CIA killed JFK after all (?), nuclear proliferation, ethnic cleansing, mass incarceration, Guantanamo Bay, and all talk no walk on climate change? And let’s hope there is a special circle of hell waiting for propaganda artists who worked for Exxon.
  • FEBRUARY: Pfizer says they are not doing gain of function research on potential extinction viruses. But they totally could if they wanted to. And this at a time when the “lab leak hypothesis” is peeking out from the headlines again. I also became concerned about bird flu, then managed to convince myself that maybe it is not a huge risk at the moment, but definitely a significant risk over time.
  • MARCH: The Covid-19 “lab leak hypothesis” is still out there. Is this even news? I’m not sure. But what is frightening to me is that deadly natural and engineered pathogens are being worked with in labs, and they almost inevitably will escape or be released intentionally to threaten us all at some point. It’s like nuclear proliferation, accidents, and terrorism – we have had a lot of near misses and a lot of luck over the last 70 years or so. Can we afford the same with biological threats (not to mention nuclear threats) – I think no. Are we doing enough as a civilization to mitigate this civilization-ending threat? I think almost certainly, obviously not. What are we doing? What are we thinking?
  • APRIL: Chemicals, they’re everywhere! And there were 20,000 accidents with them in 2022 that caused injuries, accidents, or death. Some are useful, some are risky, and some are both. We could do a better job handling and transporting them, we could get rid of the truly useless and dangerous ones, and we could work harder on finding substitutes for the useful but dangerous ones. And we could get rid of a corrupt political system where chemical companies pay the cost of running for office and then reward candidates who say and do what they are told.
  • MAY: There are more “nuclear capable states” than I thought.
  • JUNE: Most frightening and/or depressing story: Before 2007, Americans bought around 7 million guns per year. By 2016, it was around 17 million. In 2020, it was 23 million. Those are the facts and figures. Now for my opinion: no matter how responsible the vast majority of gun owners are, you are going to have a lot more suicides, homicides, and fatal accidents with so many guns around. And sure enough, firearms are now the leading cause of death in children according to CDC. That makes me sick to think about.
  • JULY: Citizens United. Seriously, this might be the moment the United States of America jumped the shark. I’ve argued in the past or Bush v. Gore. But what blindingly obvious characteristic do these two things have in common? THE CORRUPT ILLEGITIMATE UNITED STATES SUPREME COURT!!!
  • AUGUST: Immigration pressure and anti-immigration politics are already a problem in the U.S. and Europe, and climate change is going to make it worse. The 2023 WEF Global Risks Report agrees that “large scale involuntary migration” is going to be up there as an issue. We should not be angry at immigrants, we should be angry at Exxon and the rest of the energy industry, which made an intentional choice not only to directly cause all this but to prevent governments from even understanding the problem let alone doing anything to solve it. We should be very, very angry! Are there any talented politicians out there who know how to stoke anger and channel it for positive change, or is it just the evil genocidal impulses you know how to stoke?
  • SEPTEMBER: “the accumulation of physical and knowledge capital to substitute natural resources cannot guarantee green growth“. Green growth, in my own words, is the state where technological innovation allows increased human activity without a corresponding increase in environmental impact. In other words, this article concludes that technological innovation may not be able to save us. This would be bad, because this is a happy story where our civilization has a “soft landing” rather than a major course correction or a major disaster. There are some signs that human population growth may turn the corner (i.e., go from slowing down to actually decreasing in absolute numbers) relatively soon. Based on this, I speculated that “by focusing on per-capita wealth and income as a metric, rather than total national wealth and income, we can try to come up with ways to improve the quality of human lives rather than just increasing total money spent, activity, and environmental impact ceaselessly. What would this mean for “markets”? I’m not sure, but if we can accelerate productivity growth, and spread the gains fairly among the shrinking pool of humans, I don’t see why it has to be so bad.”
  • OCTOBER: Israel-Palestine. From the long-term grind of the failure to make peace and respect human rights, to the acute horror causing so much human suffering and death at this moment, to the specter of an Israeli and/or U.S. attack on Iran. It’s frightening and depressing – but of course it is not my feelings that matter here, but all the people who are suffering and going to suffer horribly because of this. The most positive thing I can think of to say is that when the dust settles, possibly years from now, maybe cooler heads will prevail on all sides. Honorable mention for most frightening story is the 2024 U.S. Presidential election starting to get more real – I am sure I and everyone else will have more to say about this in the coming (exactly one year as I write this on November 5, 2023) year!
  • NOVEMBER: An economic model that underlies a lot of climate policy may be too conservative. I don’t think this matters much because the world is doing too little, too late even according to the conservative model. Meanwhile, the ice shelves holding back Greenland are in worse shape than previously thought.
  • DECEMBER: Migration pressure and right wing politics create a toxic feedback loop practically everywhere in the world.

Stories I picked as “most hopeful”:

  • JANUARY: Bill Gates says a gene therapy-based cure for HIV could be 10-15 years away.
  • FEBRUARY:  Jimmy Carter is still alive as I write this. The vision for peace he laid out in his 2002 Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech is well worth a read today. “To suggest that war can prevent war is a base play on words and a despicable form of warmongering. The objective of any who sincerely believe in peace clearly must be to exhaust every honorable recourse in the effort to save the peace. The world has had ample evidence that war begets only conditions that beget further war.”
  • MARCH: Just stop your motor vehicle and let elephants cross the road when and where they want to. Seriously, don’t mess with elephants.
  • APRIL: There has been some progress on phages, viruses intentionally designed to kill antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Also, anti-aging pills may be around the corner.
  • MAY: The U.S. Congress is ponying up $31 billion to give Houston a chance at a future. Many more coastal cities will need to be protected from sea level rise and intensifying storms. Now we will see if the U.S. can do coastal protection right (just ask the Dutch or Danish, no need to reinvent anything), and how many of the coastal cities it will get to before it is too late.
  • JUNE: It makes a lot of sense to tax land based on its potential developed value, whether it has been developed to that level or not. This discourages land speculation, vacant and abandoned property in cities while raising revenue that can offset other taxes.
  • JULY: There is a tiny glimmer of hope that Americans might actually value more walkable communities. And this is also a tiny glimmer of hope for the stability of our global climate, driver/bicyclist/pedestrian injuries and deaths, and the gruesome toll of obesity and diabetes. But it is only a glimmer.
  • AUGUST: Peak natural gas demand could happen by 2030, with the shift being to nuclear and renewables.
  • SEPTEMBER: Autonomous vehicles kill and maim far, far fewer human beings than vehicles driven by humans. I consider this a happy story no matter how matter how much the media hypes each accident autonomous vehicles are involved in while ignoring the tens of thousands of Americans and millions of human beings snuffed out each year by human drivers. I think at some point, insurance companies will start to agree with me and hike premiums on human drivers through the roof. Autonomous parking also has a huge potential to free up space in our urban areas.
  • OCTOBER: Flesh eating bacteria is becoming slightly more common, but seriously you are not that likely to get it. And this really was the most positive statement I could come up with this month!
  • NOVEMBER: Small modular nuclear reactors have been permitted for the first time in the United States, although it looks like the specific project that was permitted will not go through. Meanwhile construction of new nuclear weapons is accelerating (sorry, not hopeful, but I couldn’t help pointing out the contrast…)
  • DECEMBER: I mused about ways to create an early warning system that things in the world or a given country are about to go seriously wrong: “an analysis of government budgets, financial markets, and some demographic/migration data to see where various governments’ priorities lie relative to what their priorities probably should be to successfully address long-term challenges, and their likely ability to bounce back from various types and magnitudes of shock. You could probably develop some kind of risk index at the national and global levels based on this.” Not all that hopeful, you say? Well, I say it fits the mood as we end a sour year.

Stories I picked as “most interesting, not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps a mixture of both”:

  • JANUARY: Genetically engineered beating pig hearts have been sown into dead human bodies. More than once.
  • FEBRUARY: It was slim pickings this month, but Jupiter affects the Sun’s orbit, just a little bit.
  • MARCH: Chickie Nobs have arrived!
  • APRIL: I had heard the story of the Google engineer who was fired for publicly releasing a conversation with LaMDA, a Google AI. But I hadn’t read the conversation. Well, here it is.
  • MAY: Peter Turchin’s new book proposes four indicators presaging political instability: “stagnating or declining real wages, a growing gap between rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, declining public trust, and exploding public debt“. I found myself puzzled by the “overproduction of young graduates” part, and actually had a brief email exchange with Peter Turchin himself, which I very much appreciated! Anyway, he said the problem is not education per se but “credentialism”. I have to think some more about this, but I suppose the idea is that education, like health, wealth, and almost everything else, is not equally distributed but is being horded by a particular class which is not contributing its fair share. These are my words, not Peter’s, and he might or might not agree with my characterization here.
  • JUNE: The U.S. may have alien spacecraft at Area 51 after all. Or, and this is purely my speculation, they might have discovered anti-gravity and want to throw everybody else off the scent.
  • JULY: We are all susceptible to the “end of history effect” in that we tend to assume our personalities will not change in the future, when in fact they almost certainly will. So one way to make decisions is to imagine how a few different possible future yous might look back on them.
  • AUGUST: There are a number of theories on why “western elites” have not been (perceived to be) effective in responding to crises in recent years and decades. Many have to do with institutional power dynamics, where the incentives of the individual to gain power within the institution do not align with the stated goals of the institution. Like for example, not killing everyone. The possible silver lining would be that better institutions could be designed where incentives aligned. I have an alternate, or possibly complementary, theory that there has been a decline in system thinking and moral thinking. Our leaders aren’t educated to see the systems and or think enough about whether their decisions are on the side of right or wrong.
  • SEPTEMBER: Venice has completed a major storm surge barrier project.
  • OCTOBER: The generally accepted story of the “green revolution“, that humanity saved itself from widespread famine in the face of population growth by learning to dump massive quantities of fossil fuel-derived fertilizer on farm fields, may not be fully true.
  • NOVEMBER: India somehow manages to maintain diplomatic relations with Palestine (which they recognize as a state along with 138 other UN members), Israel, and Iran at the same time.
  • DECEMBER: Did an AI named “Q Star” wake up and become super-intelligent this month?

And Now, My Brilliant Analytical Synthesis!

Climate Change. Well really, I’m likely to just say things now I have said many times before. The climate change shit is really starting to hit the fan. Our largely coastal civilization and the food supply that sustains it is at risk. The shit we can obviously see hitting the fan right now is the result of emissions years if not decades ago, and we have continued to not only emit too much but to emit too much at an increasing rate since those emissions, and we continue to not only emit too much but to emit at an increasing rate today. This means that even if we stop emitting too much right now and going forward, the crisis will continue to get worse for some time before it eventually gets better. And we are not doing that, we are continuing to not only emit too much but we are doing it at an increasing rate. We are already seeing the beginnings of massive population movements fueling a downward spiral of nationalist and outright racist geopolitics, which makes it even harder to come together and address our critical planetary carrying capacity issue in a rational manner. We are not only seeing “the return of great power competition”, we are insanely patting ourselves on the back for aiding and abetting this, and piling nuclear proliferation on top of it. Is a soft landing possible in this situation? I am not going to tell you I think it is, or even if it is possible that our species and cowards that pass for our leadership have any hope of making it happen. I think about the best we can hope for is some kind of serious but manageable collapse or crisis that brings us to our senses and allows some real leaders to emerge. To throw out one idea, maybe we could come to a new era of arms reduction for the major nuclear powers, and halts to proliferation for all the emerging nuclear powers, in exchange for civilian nuclear power for everyone who wants it, all under a strict international control and inspection regime. This would begin to address two existential risks (nuclear war and climate change) at once. Or maybe, just maybe, we are on the verge of a massive acceleration of technological progress that could make problems easier to solve. Maybe, but new technology also comes with new risks, and we shouldn’t put all our eggs in this basket. Besides, the singularity is nearing but it still feels a decade or so away to me.

UFOs. Aside from all of that, maybe the weirdest single thing going on in the world right now is the UFOs. There seems to be no real controversy about them – they are out there. They are flying around and if not defying the laws of physics as we know them, defying any technology that is able to accommodate the laws of physics as we know them. And what this logically leads to is that somebody (or some intelligent entity) knows something about the laws of physics that the rest of us do not know. Einstein explained how gravity behaves, but he wasn’t able to fully explain what gravity is or certainly how or why it came to be the way it is. Einstein’s predictions have since been proven through incontrovertible evidence, and the predictions of quantum theory have also been incontrovertibly proven, but the two theories are still at odds and in need of unification despite the efforts of the most brilliant minds today. But…are the most brilliant minds today operating in the open, or are they behind closed doors at private defense contractors and subject to censorship on national security grounds? If there has been a major discovery, would it see the light of day or would it be suppressed? I have no information here, I am just saying this is a narrative that would fit the evidence, and I don’t see other plausible narratives that fit the evidence. Why would aliens be playing with relatively easily discoverable toys in our atmosphere, while in the meantime we have discovered no radio signal evidence, no evidence of their existence in our telescopes? Those things would be very hard if not impossible to cover up, so I think we would know. The Fermi Paradox persists.

Artificial Intelligence. I tend to think the AI hype is ahead of the reality. Nonetheless, the reality is coming. It will probably seize control without our noticing after the hype has passed. Is it possible we could look back in a decade and identify 2023 as the year it woke up? There were a couple queer (in the original dictionary sense – I just couldn’t think of a better word) stories in 2023. One was a Google engineer getting fired after publicly declaring his belief that a Google AI had become conscious. The other was the “ethics board” of a major corporation firing its CEO in relation to a rumored artificial general intelligence breakthrough. Only time will tell what really happened in these cases (if it is ever made public), but one thing we can say is that technological progress does not usually go backwards.

Synthetic Biology. It’s pretty clear we are now in an age of synthetic biology breakthroughs that was hyped over the last few decades, and the media and publics of the world are predictably yawning and ignoring. But we are hearing about vaccines and cures on the horizon for diseases that have long plagued us, genetically engineered organs, synthetic meat, engineered viruses to fight antibiotic-resistant bacteria, and anti-aging pills among other things. And then there is the specter of lab accidents and biological weapons, which might be the single most scary thing in the world today out of all the terrifying things I have mentioned in this post.

2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Ugh, I’m still not ready to think about it, but it is going to happen whether I am ready to think about it or not. I’ll get around to thinking and writing about it soon, I’m sure.

Happy 2024!

Project Syndicate 2024 Look-Ahead

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There is nothing extremely surprising here, but here are a few things their commentators mention:

  • Things in Africa seem to be going in the wrong direction recently, for those who prefer peace and democracy, with a variety of military takeovers and regional conflicts in many parts of the continent. In North Africa, things are just kind of politically and economically stagnant.
  • The crypto-currency hype bubble seems to have burst for the time being.
  • The Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza conflicts just grind on, with horrendous human consequences. It doesn’t seem crazy to think that we could hope for some sort of negotiations to start over the course of the next entire year. What will these lead towards – a demilitarized zone, semi-autonomous federalist regions of some sort, promises by NATO to table any expansion talk for a decade or so? These all seem rational to me. Biden could try to get this done before the U.S. elections. I like to think that at the situation in Gaza can’t be worse a year from now than it is this New Year’s Eve (as I write this), because it is about as awful as anything can get. It also occurs to me that this may be a particularly awful war in terms in civilian suffering, but it is also a very public and well-reported war partly because there were so many international and media organizations present in Gaza to begin with. I suspect all wars are horrible for civilians, and we just happen to be seeing more of this one up close and personal than we usually see. For example, there is a horrible conflict in Myanmar that we don’t hear much about in the U.S. media. And I think I already mentioned ugly conflicts in Africa. So let’s stop pretending there is any such thing as humanitarian war and start getting serious about peace and human rights in 2024.
  • Some people think there will be a U.S.-China military throwdown over Taiwan in 2024. I sincerely hope not, and I my sense is that China is a bit too rational and long-term thinking to let this happen. The U.S.? I’m not so sure. I will expect lots of heated rhetoric, maybe some dirty election/spy tricks, and maybe some limited naval conflict which hopefully won’t turn into a world war which clearly is in nobody’s interest. Everybody will try to show that they have the biggest, hairiest balls in the room during the U.S. election season. Or could some charismatic leader emerge with a compelling peace message? I am not this hopeful.
  • The U.S. election season is going to be simply looney tunes. I don’t know what else to say. Well, I will probably think of plenty to say when I get a chance to start thinking it through. There are also elections happening in other parts of the world, of course.
  • Hopefully the U.S. and world economy will continue to bump along, with inflation gradually subsiding and no major recessions. Inequality will continue to increase most likely.
  • The artificial intelligence hype bubble will continue to inflate in 2024. It will burst of course, but if I had to wager I would wager on this being the year it happens. A hype bubble bursting does not mean the technology will cease to progress, of course.
  • Serious action on climate change will be overshadowed by all the wars and geopolitical dirty tricks going on in the world today. And the crisis will continue to build. It’s about the security of our food supply and the continued existence of our coastal cities, idiots. Leaders, where are you?

Michael Boskin on 2023

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Is Michael Boskin an important person to listen to? I don’t know, but I appreciate a variety of people posting about what they think were the important events of 2023. Michael Boskin is “Professor of Economics at Stanford University and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He was Chairman of George H.W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1989 to 1993”. Anyway, he mentions…

the US economy’s “soft landing,” the war of attrition in Ukraine, Hamas’s terrorist attack and its fallout, explosive advances in AI, and the loss of two great American public servants.

Project Syndicate

The two public servants were Henry Kissinger…

Kissinger’s “balance-of-power” realpolitik certainly had its detractors, especially owing to civilian causalities in Cambodia, Vietnam, and East Timor. But history will mark him (along with Shultz) among America’s greatest diplomats – together with Dean Acheson, George Kennan, and George Marshall, who helped President Harry Truman establish the post-World War II economic and security commons.

Okay – I might note that the civilian casualties were numbered in the MILLIONS. And Truman presided over those fire and nuclear bombings of major European and Japanese cities.

and Sandra Day O’Connor…

O’Connor, the first female justice, was pragmatic, conservative, humble, charming, and tough, but never mean. Had she been a liberal Democrat, more statues and public infrastructure would bear her name. As the swing vote on the Court for decades, she often rejected absolutist positions on hot-button issues such as abortion and affirmative action and fashioned compromises that a large majority of Americans could accept.

I’ll admit to being fairly ignorant of Sandra Day O’Connor’s career. One thing I think we can certainly say is that the reputation and legitimacy of the court has declined since her day. I would take “pragmatic, conservative, humble, charming, and tough” over “corrupt as the day is long” like some of the yahoos we have on there now, and for the foreseeable future.

Bill Gates on 2023

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Bill Gates’s year-end retrospective is kind of rambling but here are a few points I pulled out:

  1. Lots more vaccines were administered to children in developing countries using new technologies and new delivery methods. This has made a big difference in child mortality, and that is always a happy thing. He doesn’t really go into details on the new technologies, but I am imagining things like nasal sprays rather than needles, and vaccines that don’t require refrigeration or not as much. And sometimes we just figure out how to make familiar things but make them much cheaper, and this can make a huge difference. Which would illustrate that important technologies don’t have to seem extremely complicated and high-tech to have a big impact.
  2. On the AI front, he says it will accelerate drug development, including solutions for antibiotic resistance. I don’t doubt this, although I suspect the hype has gotten a bit ahead of the rollout. So I would look for this over the next half-decade or so rather than expecting it to burst on the scene in 2024. Bill actually predicts “18–24 months away from significant levels of AI use by the general population”.
  3. He talks about AI tutors for students. I don’t want to be a Luddite, but I am concerned this will just mean less teachers per student, which will be bad.
  4. Maybe AI can just get our medical records under control. This would be nice. Transparent, common protocols for how medical records should be formatted, stored, and shared could also do this though. I can someday hope robots will constantly clean up and organize my messy house as I just throw my things everywhere, or I could organize my house (which would take a big effort once) and keep it that way (which would take small, disciplined daily efforts).
  5. Gut microbiome-based medicine. Sounds good, I guess. Then again, whenever we try to replace nutritious whole foods with highly manufactured alternatives (vitamin pills, baby formula) we tend to decide later that we should have stuck with the whole foods.
  6. “a major shift toward overall acceptance of nuclear” power. Well, it’s been pretty obvious to me for a long time that this had to happen, but maybe the world is catching up. Nuclear could certainly have been the bridge fuel to renewables if we had fully adopted it decades ago. The question now is whether, given its incredibly long time frames to get up and running and the fact that any technology is obsolete by the time it is up and running, and the current pace of renewables, it still makes sense. I definitely think we should put some eggs in this basket though.
  7. He mentions the fusion breakthrough at Lawrence Livermore about a year ago. It’s been a year and we haven’t heard much more – is the time to refine and rollout that technology going to be measured in years, decades, or never?
  8. He talks about the need for more investment in electric grids and transmission lines. Yes, this is unsexy but really needs to happen. Will it?

2023: a year of war?

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Richard Haas says 2023 was characterized by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and also by the world starting to wake up to the climate change threat (but falling far short on its response.) His bright spots are that the U.S.-China relationship did not devolve into a hot war, and Japan and South Korea are getting along a bit better. To me, it is unforgivable that world leaders are leading us towards war when we have such dire challenges staring us in the face including food security, loss of major coastal cities, nuclear proliferation, and pandemic threats both natural and manmade. Climate change is also fueling a vicious cycle of migration, anti-migration political movements, and geopolitical instability, which in turn makes it even harder to focus on solving problems together.

stuff I’ve read in 2023

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This is just a grab bag. I’ve read two reasonably entertaining novels set in near futures where climate change is ravaging the world. Neal Stephenson’s Termination Shock was the more entertaining of the two. Stephenson is a good storyteller and his books are easy to read. But obviously, read Snow Crash first if you never have.

I’m about half way through Ministry of the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson. Like all Robinson’s books I have read so far, this one is less entertaining but he does a good job of world building. I feel like he is trying too hard to educate me though – sometimes if I want to be educated I will go read a non-fiction book, and if I want to be entertained I will turn to fiction. Books that lie somewhere in between can be irritating.

I’ve enjoyed two mystery/action series this year. The Jack Reacher series is great escape fiction about your basic middle aged white male hero type who is good with guns and fighting, and fighting with guns. I hate violence in real life but it is hard to write entertaining stories with zero violence, so there. I don’t think I ever want to see the movie because I enjoy the book character too much. I’ve also been enjoying the Bernie Gunther series. This one is is bit dark and morally complex as it deals with a detective/policeman hero type who happens to be an involuntary reluctant Nazi. But seriously, it is good and recommended.

Speaking of dark and morally complex, I read a couple books by Octavia Butler – Kindred and Parable of the Sower. She subjects her characters to niceties like murder, rape, and slavery, and I guess you get to find out what they are made of when they respond to these situations. She is a good character developer and storyteller though and worth a read, as long as you are not already depressed going into it.

I read Dan Simmons’ Ilium and Olympos series, which is about Greek Gods, transhumans, Greek Gods who may be transhumans, robots, Shakespeare, Proust, and robots who like Shakespeare and Proust. This is pretty crazy stuff and you have to really like Dan Simmons to like it. I am liking but not loving it. I guess I would read the Hyperion series first, if you have not read any Dan Simmons.

Actually what prompted this post was a post by Charlie Stross (contains spoilers) about his Laundry Files and New Management Series. I gobbled up the new one that came out this year, Season of Skulls, because I gobble up all his stuff as soon as I can. It’s exciting to hear Charlie mention in this post that he has plans to wrap up the Laundry Files series with two more books “because his publisher insists”. (Could George R.R. Martin sign on with this particular publisher?) If you haven’t read any of these, I would go all the way back to the beginning of the Laundry Files, and enjoy!

most popular R books of 2023

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Here is something useful (to me, personally, and maybe too others), and thankfully not too pessimistic or morally fraught.

A Crash Course in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) using R – yes, please! We must end the tyranny of the monopolistic Environmental Systems “Research Institute”. Okay, they make some nice products, but just admit you are a rapacious for-profit corporation, please!

A ggplot2 Tutorial for Beautiful Plotting in R – Who doesn’t need to improve their data visualization and communication game?

sexiest people sorted by pronoun, 2023 edition

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The 2023 sexiest person of the year, somewhat obviously, is Taylor Swift, who is also the Time Person of the Year. I can’t argue with that too much, although I think it tells us something whether the person of the year comes from pop culture rather than than the serious worlds of, say, politics or science. At the moment, I think it tells us that we are burnt out on serious things and we want to stick our heads in the sand and ignore them.

Who would I pick, if I were going to pick someone from the serious world? That’s a tough one. I almost want to tip my hat to Jimmy Carter because we really need serious voices for peace in the world right now. But then again, Nobel Prize winners might not want to be greedy. I may have to keep thinking.

Meanwhile, it is mildly ironic that “People” magazine still names a sexiest “man”. I don’t really have a problem with this – People magazine doesn’t pretend to be about anything other than pop culture. And I still see men here and there every day despite the various endocrine disrupting compounds in our water and consumer products. This year’s sexist middle aged Caucasian actor I haven’t heard of is Patrick Dempsey. Congratulations, Patrick. I am sure you are awesome, it is just that I am not paying attention to your particular corner of pop culture. I note that you have a few gray hairs, so maybe my chances of being the sexiest man alive at some point in the future are not completely dead.

Project Censored Top 25

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You should buy Project Censored’s new book or otherwise support them if you can. And having said that, they appear to have posted their top 25 “most censored” stories of 2023 on RSS. Here are a few that caught my eye:

  • #22: Agricultural industry’s continued heavy use of antibiotics linked antibiotic resistance concerns in humans
  • #21: A lot of homeless people actually do some sort of paid work.
  • #19: One study estimated economic costs of gun violence in the U.S. at $557 billion per year. It may seem callous to “put a price on human life” this way, but hard nosed cost-benefit analysis can sometimes help justify better policy decisions, as it has for seat belts and air pollution controls, for example.
  • #16: Sixteen municipalities in Puerto Rico are suing fossil fuel giants under racketeering statutes for intentionally misleading the public about the causes of climate change. And #14: And it’s not just oil and gas companies – the electric industry was also very much in on the lies and cover ups that have altered our biosphere beyond the point of return over the past half century.
  • #15: In the U.S., data show black people are wrongfully convicted of murder about seven times more often than white people.
  • #5: The idea of buying carbon offsets to offset travel or other emissions-producing activities seems very attractive, but unfortunately, the objective evidence does not show them to be anywhere near as effective as advertised.

best “urban planning” books of 2023

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And the “best of” posts begin… I put urban planning in quotes because the field is broad and covers a lot of ground that may be of interest to engineers, natural and social scientists, economists, and many others. Here are a handful that caught my eye:

  • How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Fate of Every Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration and Everything In Between. Interesting to me because, in general, neither the United States nor my specific state or city seems able to get big things done. I think this is largely a failure of imagination and priorities, but I also listened to this Freakonomics podcast recently on how construction productivity in the U.S. has just gone nowhere over the last 50 years while productivity in other sectors has grown by leaps and bounds. They rule out lack of capital investment and excessive monopoly power. Some evidence seems to point toward regulation (whether health, safety, and environmental protections are “excessive” is in the eyes of the beholder, but this also includes misguided/outdated local land use policies like minimum lot sizes and parking requirements), citizen input/resistance (but in my city, legitimate public input takes place alongside some shady politician/developer horse trading and the two can be hard to distinguish, and of course, existing homeowners have a rational but unhelpful interest in resisting new construction and new residents, and this can also be tinged with racial bias). Nobody thinks better construction management and risk management would be a bad thing, and this is an area I think computers and automation (call it artificial intelligence if you want) might make a difference. Make a digital model of exactly what is supposed to be built where and when, then monitor the hell out of it during the construction process to try to anticipate and correct deviations from the plan before they occur. There is always interest in prefabrication and making construction look a lot more like manufacturing, which it superficially resembles except for taking place in the real world of weather, traffic, surprise underground conditions etc. And then (not really covered in the podcast) there is the high-tech stuff like drones, robots, and advances in materials science. Being in the engineering industry myself, I know it is fiercely competitive and yet relatively risk adverse and slow to adopt new technology.
  • Poverty, by America by Matthew Desmond. I’m not sure I want to be depressed enough to read this, but certainly an important topic. To solve poverty, you can give people money in the short term (which you have to take from other people/entities who have more than they need, although they won’t see it that way), and/or you have to give them education, skills, and job prospects in the longer term. That’s really the whole story – now go forth and prosper, everyone.
  • Paved Paradise: How Parking Explains the World by Henry Grabar. Well, before reading this everyone should read the classic The High Cost of Free Parking. But I have gotten jaded trying to change minds on this by providing accurate and rational information to the parking-entitled crowd, which is almost everyone.
  • Crossings: How Road Ecology is Shaping the Future of our Planet by Ben Goldfarb. “Road ecology” almost sounds like an oxymoron to me. Then again, it is really eye opening when you realize how much of the urban surface is made up of roads, streets, driveways, and parking lots. So if there really are ways to reduce the impact, it is worth thinking about.
  • Urban Jungle: The History and Future of Nature in the City and The End of Eden: Wild Nature in the Age of Climate Breakdown. Important topics, given that there is less and less land not altered by humans out there.
  • Smaller Cities in a Shrinking World: Learning to Thrive Without Growth. This covers population shrinkage in developed countries today, and possibility eventually in most countries. But developed countries will need to deal with increasing migration pressure in the medium term, so I am not sure how soon we will have the luxury of thinking about reducing our city sizes. Then again, maybe we should be letting some cities shrink while densifying others and making them as vibrant and human as possible.
  • The Great Displacement: Climate Change and the Next American Migration. Okay yes, densify and improve the cities in good places.
  • A City on Mars: Can We Settle Space, Should We Settle Space, and Have We Really Thought This Through? and The First City on Mars: An Urban Planner’s Guide to Settling the Red Planet. Fun to think about, because we need to have some imagination and practice thinking big even as we are solving all those tricky little problems close to home.