Tag Archives: crime

America’s shoplifting panic

Recently I purchased a small bottle of dishwashing liquid for less than $2 at a Walgreens in Center City Philadelphia, and I had to call a clerk to unlock it a Plexiglass case and get it for me. I also notice that shelves are oddly empty in many stores, and I have certainly seen and heard the stories about shoplifting and “flash mobs”.

As always, I like journalism that provides some data to back up storytelling and anecdotal evidence. So kudos to CNN here:

Shoplifting reports in 24 major cities where police have consistently published years of data — including New York City, Los Angeles, Dallas and San Francisco — were 16% higher during the first half of 2023 compared to 2019, according to the Council on Criminal Justice analysis.

However, excluding New York City, the number of incidents among the remaining cities was 7% lower.

CNN

The article also provides some interesting context on past “shoplifting panics”, including one in London when women first ventured into public in significant numbers. People believed they were stealing for the thrill of it. I would speculate that it may have been more a question of whether they had access to cash or what their husbands may have thought about them spending said cash. Then there was a hippie shoplifting panic in the 1960s. And now we have a “breakdown of law and order in cities” narrative fueling the current one.

The article also talks about the enormous pressure on brick and mortar retailers to compete with online sales. I suspect this narrative provides them some convenient leverage in negotiating with landlords, insurers, and local politicians. I also wonder if shoplifting has always gone on but modern surveillance technology means insurance companies are more easily aware to quantify it, and it is just more prevalent than they thought.

more Philly stats

Brookings has a report on crime in Philadelphia, New York, Chicago, and Seattle. Homicides are up sharply in all these cities, but the overall crime picture is more nuanced. The actual stats show that while homicide is way up, other violent crimes are up only slightly. Central business districts are generally pretty safe, with violent crime and property crime mostly happening in residential neighborhoods. Nonetheless, office workers have an impression that central business districts are less safe than before the pandemic. I share that perception. This article points out that my perception may have more to do with the visible disorder of homelessness, drug use, and just general filth on the streets and on public transit. I witness all of this daily in Philadelphia. At the same time I know that these things are for the most part not a physical threat to my person. And I always try to remind myself that the person annoying me by experiencing homelessness or drug addiction on the streets of my city is having a much worse day than I am. Brookings has a solution salad at the end of their article – politicians, please do these things.

more on Philadelphia crime

The Philadelphia District Attorney has come under pressure for a drop in violent crime convictions. I generally support efforts to reduce arrests and trials for non-violent crimes, although a lot more tickets need to be written for speeding and reckless driving in the city – not doing this is killing people, both drivers and pedestrians, at alarming rates, and I don’t know how you can call this “non-violent”.

Nonetheless, the statistics on violent crime convictions do look somewhat bad, and the downward trend started before the 2020 pandemic so you can’t blame it on that alone. I like the data transparency that the District Attorney’s office provides. This, along with police data, could allow journalists to provide a lot more context on individual cases and short-term statistics than they do. I think they could do this without giving up the blood-soaked entertainment value that seems to be necessary to pay the bills in our messed up society.

Shot Spotter

Shot Spotter is a set of microphones installed on telephone poles around a city that is supposed to allow police to respond rapidly to gun shots. It actually came to mind when I read recently about people in violence-impacted Philadelphia neighborhoods asking the police for more cameras. This article is about Chicago, and is generally critical of the technology on racial justice grounds. It sounds like the system there is perceived as yet another way for the police to harass people. That sounds bad, but I can imagine this being one more piece of evidence useful for prosecuting a violent crime after the fact. I can imagine a combination of video, audio, and eyewitness testimony being pretty persuasive.

more police cameras

Since I was recently musing about police cameras, here is an article about San Francisco police using footage from cameras on autonomous vehicles.

While the companies themselves, such as Alphabet’s Waymo and General Motors’ Cruise, tout the potential transportation benefits their services may one day offer, they don’t publicize another use case, one that is far less hypothetical: Mobile surveillance cameras for police departments.

“Autonomous vehicles are recording their surroundings continuously and have the potential to help with investigative leads,” says a San Francisco Police department training document obtained by Motherboard via a public records request. “Investigations has already done this several times.”

Vice

My first reaction was why is a camera on an autonomous vehicle more sinister than one on any other vehicle. But I guess the point here is that all autonomous vehicles collect camera footage, so it is a large potential data source for the police to tap. I am not sure I have a big problem with this. A Go Pro camera is kind of expensive, and I don’t have one. When a driver threatened to kill me recently when I was riding my bike 100% legally on a one-lane city street, I tried to pull out my phone and get some footage but it wasn’t very good. I wouldn’t mind at all if someone else had recorded evidence of that crime. There is not much point in my bothering to report it to police when it would just be a claim not backed by any evidence. But especially if the guy continues to harass me (which has already happened once) it would be good to have a record. I don’t think the guy is actually dangerous though, he is just an ignorant asshole at least when he is behind the wheel.

more on Philadelphia crime

Pew has a nice “state of the city” report, including interesting crime statistics over multiple decades. One thing that is clear is that homicide and overall crime do not move in tandem, although the media tends to use the terms interchangeably. While homicide is way up, and homicide is the most horrible crime because, well, people don’t come back from being dead, “major crime” and “violent crime” are still low by historical standards, and this has happened as the jail population has decreased significantly.

A couple other things I found interesting, though far from uplifting:

  • Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh all have higher homicide rates on a population basis. I think these stats are at the municipal level. New York and Los Angeles are notably absent from these lists – maybe they were not included as “peer cities”?
  • Drug overdose deaths in our city are at a historic high at around 1200 people per year. This has been going on since at least 2017 so we can’t just blame the pandemic. And this is more than double than horrific homicide total (which doesn’t make either one better, it makes both added together worse. And this article doesn’t cover suicide.)
  • Of the major cities presented, only Baltimore has a worse drug overdose toll than Philadelphia on a population basis though. It might be a bit misleading though because the statistics are for the county that includes the major city, and some counties are going to include (economically if not racially segregated) suburban areas while others do not.
  • The racial composition of Philadelphia (the municipality) has changed significantly over the last 30 years. In 1990, it was about half white, 40% black, 10% hispanic/Asian/other. In 2020, it is still about 40% black, but only 35% white and 25% hispanic/Asian/other. I do wonder though if changes in how people have reported being white, Hispanic, mixed race, or combinations of these over time have something to do with these changes.

Pew does a good job of reporting stats on a population-normalized basis, which the press does not do. I would like to see a bit more and a bit clearer reporting on metro areas vs. municipalities, and putting the latter in the context of the former. I don’t fund county-level data helpful at all when comparing across metropolitan and state lines. It would be particularly useful to understand how regional poverty is concentrated (or not) within the largest political jurisdiction of a metro area, and how that plays into these statistics. In other words, a metro area as a whole may not be poor or have low tax revenues compared to peer metro areas, but the central municipality where economic and cultural activity are concentrated (at least historically) may have its hands tied by a narrow tax base and high expenses (underfunded pensions for example) that make providing quality services to its poor and working classes difficult. Although this conundrum might have a fairly obvious logical solution of sharing resources across the metro area, it is politically intractable. I don’t have great solutions to offer other than my half-joking one of metro areas applying for statehood.

March 2022 in Review

The Ukraine war grinds on as I write on April 7, with the Russian military seemingly pulling back from some areas while slaughtering civilians (hostages?) farther east and south. I proffered some limited views on the situation and media coverage of the war during the month, but I won’t go into it below.

Most frightening and/or depressing story: What causes violence? It’s the (prohibition and war on) drugs, stupid. Or at least, partly/mostly, the drugs.

Most hopeful story: There are meaningful things individuals can do to slow climate change, even as governments and industries do too little too late. For example, eat plants, limit driving and flying, and just replace consumer goods as they wear out. I’m mostly on board except that I think we need peace and stability for the long term survival of both our civilization and planetary ecosystem, and we are going to need to travel and get to know one another to give that a chance.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: Ready.gov has posted helpful information on what to do in case of a nuclear explosion.

body cams

I just finished up my third Philadelphia jury experience. I’m not going to give any details of names or locations, but one thing that struck me was the role of technology. This trial featured:

  • Instagram
  • Someone (allegedly) impersonating a delivery person
  • Selfies, which ended up in court
  • A (temporarily) purloined cell phone
  • Police body cam videos

Now, about those police body cams. We started hearing about them in the context of police shootings of suspects, but after seeing them in court I realized that they change everything. First, there is a world of difference between hearing the testimony of a police office about what happened on the scene, and seeing and hearing (although the audio was not perfect) it for yourself. For one thing, police are not masters of public speaking. For another, the incident they are describing happened months or even years before, and was just a few short minutes during one busy day. They may have responded to hundreds or thousands of similar calls since then. The body cam footage will even help the police officers themselves remember what happened on the scene before they testify.

back to drugs and crime

Recently I said my thoughts on the relationship between violence and the drug economy were evolving. Well, here is a paper from Temple University showing evidence that a lot of violence is linked to the drug economy. They look at neighborhoods in Philadelphia that are similar across most variables other than drug activity, and show that the neighborhoods with more drug activity have more violence.

February 2022 in Review

The horrible war in Ukraine is obviously the most frightening and depressing thing going on as of early March 2022, both in terms of human suffering and the risk of nuclear war. But I prefer to avoid commenting too much on fast moving current events. I’ll just say that if the world can get past the acute crisis and maybe start talking seriously about arms control again, that could be a possible silver lining. But it seems like we are months or years away from that point. So I’ll pick something else below.

Most frightening and/or depressing story: Philadelphia police are making an arrest in less than 40% of murders in our city, not to mention other violent crimes. Convictions of those arrested are also down. Some of this could be Covid-era dysfunction. But there is a word for this: lawlessness.

Most hopeful story: “Green ammonia” offers some help on the energy and environmental front.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: I found a 1992 Saturday Night Live skit about the Olympics more entertaining than the actual Olympics. May Phil Hartman rest in peace. I checked on Dana Carvey and he is 66 and doing okay.