Well, I suppose I have to write a Brexit post. The main argument seems to be that the combined UK-EU economy, with free trade and movement of people and money, was larger than either the UK or EU will be separately, and that is going to hurt both while also emboldening Russia. It seems to me that they could just negotiate some treaties to keep most of that in place, at least free movement of trade and capital if not people, but it sounds like politics may get in the way of that because some in the EU will think if they do that, it will embolden others to leave. But there is at least an argument that it could strengthen the EU in the long term.
In the immediate future, the EU will face a serious dilemma. If it allows Great Britain to withdraw from common structures only to a limited extent, it would signal to all Euroskeptics that they can do as they please. But if EU leaders impose high costs on the UK – namely, by restricting its access to the single market – Europe could end up cutting off its nose to spite its face.
The tragedy of today’s situation is that the EU could still save itself and come to its senses. It could compensate for the losses caused by Brexit by transforming the current crisis into an opportunity for true integration – something that up until now had been blocked by the UK. Such an exercise in renewal would demand that EU institutions be granted real authority to create common fiscal, defense, and energy policies, while at the same time pursuing democratization (along the lines of “one citizen, one vote”).
Under this scenario, Europe could finally emerge as a strong actor in international affairs. It could be the world’s third-largest country, with English, ironically, as its administrative language – the United States of Europe. But, sadly, the political will to achieve such an outcome is unlikely to emerge – if it ever does – until conditions in Europe become considerably worse than they are now.