We kind of knew this would happen. IVF has been around and is getting more common, although it’s still expensive. We’re told DNA sequencing means people using IVF can select embryos to reduce the probability of genetic diseases. So far so good. Basic research exists tying genes to traits other than susceptibility to disease, like intelligence and eye color. So it was inevitable that companies would arise offering to let people select embryos tied to these traits, right? And that has now happened. Here is a long rundown of where the state of this industry stands.

The biggest concern, which I share, is that rich people will be able to afford this and nobody else will, so rich people will have even more advantages and the gap between rich and poor will grow. But I do like this quote from the article:

One might object that at least they’re in good company: other products which help rich kids get healthier/smarter/taller/prettier than poor kids include private tutors, gyms, hair salons, health insurance, clothing, books, and food.

Next the article presents the argument that rich people adopting a technology early helps to move it along the path to economies of scale and eventually a cost everyone can afford. This makes a certain amount of sense. But it would make even more sense for governments that care about their people to be the early adopters.

Also, it would be crazy for any forward-thinking government not to cover this; it could save hundreds of thousands of dollars in future health care expenses. In countries with public health care, this comes directly out of the government treasury; even in the US, it’s covered by Medicare after age 65. The government should be begging people to select embryos.

The most persistent cost barrier is likely to be in vitro fertilization itself, a necessary precursor. In the US, 2-3% of babies are born through IVF. For those kids, this is a no-brainer – even if the cost never comes down, the cheaper products are only a fraction of total IVF expense. What about the other 98%? If those parents feel like they have to get embryo selection (and therefore IVF) to keep up, this could be a significant burden. IVF isn’t fun – it requires pumping a woman full of mind-altering hormones for weeks, extracting eggs in a minor surgery, and then implanting embryos in another minor surgery, all with a decent chance that some step will fail and you’ll have to do it all again. It also costs $15,000 in the US (less in poorer countries), and unlike the genetics, the cost has barely gone down in the past twenty-five years.

Israel is cited as a country that is offering universal free IVF to its citizens. And here in the U.S., policies that have favorable long-term benefit-cost ratios just implement themselves, right?

All this is without any form of genetic engineering, remember. You are just selecting within the variation in naturally-occurring embryos. One can imagine accelerating this even more if generations of embryos can be spliced and diced by AIs and robots in a short amount of time. And even more if the actual genes are manipulated. (Ethical issues TBD, but if it can be done, someone somewhere will do it eventually.)

Incidentally, Brave New World is supposed to enter the public domain in the U.S. in 2028. But here is a copy you can buy for only $6000!