Apparently trying to answer this question is consuming a lot of bandwidth in the financial, tech, and even geopolitical arenas right now. Here is one answer from Larry Johnson, whose politics and past statements I do not necessarily endorse. Just to very briefly summarize his article: YES.

A few insights of my own:

• The AI “hype bubble” has almost certainly reached a commanding height, and will pop at some point. This will probably be felt in stock market index valuations, which are dominated by a handful of large tech companies at the moment. In my lifetime now covering half a century, we have seen this cycle first with the personal computer itself and then with the internet. In both cases, the expectation that these technologies would super-charge economic growth in a few years did not happen, and led to financial market declines. Both technologies have in fact transformed the economy drastically, it just took a few decades rather than years. Things do seem to be happening faster this time around, I admit.
• When it comes to stock market crashes, there is usually some precipitating event like the Asian financial crisis in 1997 or U.S. derivative bubble in 2007. The combination of technology bubble bursting and external financial shock seems to be particularly powerful. In fact, when I look back, I think I can argue the forward progress of the U.S. halted around that 1997 (financial crisis) to 2000 (Bush v. Gore) to 2001 to 2003 (9/11 attacks and Iraq invasion) period, and went into outright decline between the 2007 financial crisis and 2020 Covid crisis.
• Apparently some in Silicon Valley thought the artificial general intelligence singularity was so near when the LLMs first came out, and that US tech companies were so far ahead of international peers, that it justified huge short-term investments in order to gain a first mover advantage that would then be insurmountable. This particular bubble seems to be popping at the moment, with AGI clearly not here right now, and perhaps a loose, emerging consensus that LLMs are a useful technology but not a likely path to AGI. So companies may have over-invested in infrastructure that will hurt some of them badly in the short term, while possibly benefitting us all in the longer term (think about 19th century railroads for a fairly obvious analogy).

So there is somewhat of a race here – will we start to see significant economic benefits of these new technologies before some external shocker hits us? This is the luck of the draw. It seems luck has not been on our side for the last 25 years or so. Perhaps we’re due.