Charlie Stross has a vivid imagination. Take the genocidal American police state in the last three novels of his Merchant Princes series. I don’t want to ruin the plot for you – let’s just say that in the last three (written in 2017-2021) of the nine-novel series the U.S. is an authoritarian state run by a genocidal maniac and using advanced surveillance technology based on cell phone tracking and facial recognition. You have to commit to reading thousands of pages to get to this point, but I highly recommend it. But it’s just fiction, right?
Now here is Stross’s blog post from April 7, 2025.
The same face recognition and IMSI tracking tech that allowed the Biden administration’s Department of Justice to track down a few thousand January 6 rioters is now better-developed, and when the generative AI bubble collapses (as seems to be already happening) there is going to be a lot of surplus data center capacity that the emergent dictatorship can deploy for crunching on that data set to identify protesters. There won’t be many trials (except possibly a handful of show trials and executions as red meat for the base if they run true to form for a dictatorship): the rule of law in the United States is already being undermined as rapidly as happened in the Third Reich, and rather than overloading the prison system they’ll just dig mass graves. (If you’re really lucky the response will be more restrained—but those marchers won’t be getting any social security checks or medicare, will be blacklisted by employers with government contracts, harassed by the police,and so on.) …
One final note: on April 20th (entirely coincidentally, the anniversary of Adolf Hitler’s birth) a point Department of Defense and Homeland Security report is due to recommend whether the 1807 Insurrection Act can be invoked, allowing the use of the Army and National Guard to crack down on “insurrectionists”, whoever they may be—effectively a declaration of martial law…Upshot: I think I was wrong as little as a week ago. The USA may very well be moving into a pre-revolutionary crisis within the next month, with an authoritarian administration seizing emergency powers and preparing to execute an increasingly violent crackdown on the public.
If you are a US citizen or resident you should be very cautious about what you say in the comments on this blog entry.
Well, if he is right I don’t need to get myself in trouble on his blog, I am probably already in plenty of trouble right here on this one so why not dig the hole a bit deeper right now?
Imaginatively paranoid or prescient, time will tell. The technological tools of tyranny have been here since the Russian czar/Nazis/Stalin/Stasi/J. Edgar Hoover started using file cabinets at least, and probably back to the Inquisition or earlier. We are seeing the surveillance take a sinister turn though with the tracking and scoring of people in Xinjiang, Palestine, Libya, and Syria recently. Why would we think the New Management in the U.S. would not be tracking and scoring people? This is basically just marketing technology, and was probably invented here. You can build a statistical model of every American and give score them based on how many dollars you think they are likely to spend on whatever widget you are selling. Then you can target the top 20%, 50%, or 80% with ads. Or, you can use the same logic and the same technology and start dropping bombs on these individuals and their extended families. So the technology has existed, although it seems to be getting more sinister and more accessible all the time. It is our liberal democratic institutions that are supposed to prevent the tools from being used for tyranny.