Here’s an interesting article that goes into the basics of forecasting sports win probabilities (the World Cup in this case) with machine learning. It doesn’t go into code, just concepts. Then it goes into all the different ways you could modify the straight-up math, including taking into account various human opinions and the forecasts of casinos (which are probably running algorithms similar to this).

If I start to think maybe I could make money on something like this, I remind myself that much smarter and more experienced people are trying to make money on me thinking I can make money, and gambling has a small negative expected return. Better to stick to the stock market, where much smarter and more experienced people are trying to make money on me, but at least there is a small positive expected returns and pretty strict rules that are more or less fairly enforced.