Author Archives: rdmyers75@hotmail.com

October 2018 in Review

Most frightening stories:

  • The Trump administration has slashed funding to help the U.S. prepare for the next pandemic.
  • I read more gloomy expert opinions on the stability and resilience of the global financial system.
  • A new depressing IPCC report came out. Basically, implementing the Paris agreement is too little, too late, and we are not even implementing it. There is at least some movement towards a carbon tax in the U.S. – a hopeful development, except that oil companies are in favor of it which makes it suspicious. There is a carbon tax initiative on the ballot in Washington State this November that the oil companies appear to be terrified of, so comparing the two could be instructive, and the industry strategy may be to get a weaker law at the federal level as protection against a patchwork of tough laws at the state and local levels.

Most hopeful stories:

  • There is no evidence that kids in U.S. private schools do any better than kids in U.S. public schools, once you control for family income. (Okay – I admit I put this in the hopeful column because I have kids in public school.)
  • Regenerative agriculture is an idea to sequester carbon by restoring soil and  protecting biodiversity on a global scale.
  • Applying nitrogen fixing bacteria to plants that do not naturally have them may be a viable way to reduce nitrogen fertilizer use and water pollution.

Most interesting stories, that were not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps were a mixture of both:

  • New tech roundup: Artificial spider silk is an alternative to carbon fiber. Certain types of science, like drug and DNA experiments, can be largely automated. A “quantum internet” could mean essentially unbreakable encryption.
  • Modern monetary theory suggests governments might be able to print (okay, “create”) and spend a lot more money without serious repercussions. What I find odd about these discussions is they focus almost entirely on inflation and currency exchange values, while barely acknowledging that money has some relationship actual physical constraints. To me, it has always seemed that one function of the financial system is to start flashing warning lights and make us face the realities of how much we can do before we are all actually starving and freezing in the dark. It could be that we are in the midst of a long, slow slide in our ability to improve our physical quality of life, but instead of that manifesting itself as a long slow slide, it comes as a series of random shocks where one gets a little harder to recover from.
  • I read some interesting ideas on fair and unfair inequality. Conservative politicians encourage people not to make a distinction between alleviating poverty and the idea of making everybody equal. These are not the same thing at all because living just above the poverty line is no picnic and is not the same thing as being average. There is a strong moral case to be made that nobody “deserves” to live in poverty even if they have made some mistakes. And simply “creating jobs” in high-poverty areas sounds like a nice conservative alternative to handouts, except that there isn’t much evidence that it works.

fish wars?

Is it possible that part of the military confrontation over the South China Sea, among other places, is about access to fish? Yes, according to ABC (Australian Broadcast Corporation).

Through his research, Mr Bergenas has identified parallels between oil and fish resources.

“There is a concentrated supply. The Middle East has nearly half the world’s supply of recoverable crude,” says Mr Bergenas.

“Similarly, the central Pacific has 60 per cent of the world’s tuna which is a highly pursued commodity.”

Fishing boats are also sometimes being intentionally used as bait (no pun intended). If a Chinese fishing vessel gets attacked by, say, the Indonesian coast guard (I’m just making this up), China may then send in the navy to respond. In a way, it’s a similar strategy to settlers on the American frontier or the West Bank.

new technology that can screen multiple passengers 25 feet away

Here’s some more information on new airport screening tech (LA Times).

The screening device, which is about the size of an old-fashioned PC computer tower and weighs about 50 pounds, reads the outline of people to reveal firearms and explosives hidden under their clothes.

Unlike the TSA’s existing full-body scanners that bounce millimeter waves off of passengers to spot objects hidden under their clothes, Gramer said, the passive terahertz technology reads the energy emitted by a person, similar to thermal imaging used in night-vision goggles…

As a result, Thruvision boasts that its technology can screen up to 2,000 people an hour and detect a concealed device at a distance of up to 25 feet. Initially, the system can be used in addition to the existing full-body scanners already deployed at airports, but Gramer said the device can eventually replace parts of the TSA’s security screening system.

I think anyone will welcome a more convenient flying experience at this point, but it is somewhat sinister to think of this technology being installed in all sorts of public places, work places, police cars, etc.

robots taking over…Amazon warehouses

According to Quartz, Amazon hired 120,000 seasonal workers in 2016 and 2017 vs. only 100,000 this year. Since consumer spending is up at the moment, this may be a sign of increased automation at their warehouses.

Now, given my own experience with Amazon Fresh, if they can find a way for a robot to inspect a bag of lettuce and make sure it isn’t rotten, it will be a great advance for robot-kind.

the next recession

The next U.S. recession could be a rough one, according to Harvard economist Martin Feldstein. The argument is that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise short term interest but very gradually, not leaving itself a lot of room to lower them when a recession hits. At the same time, due to the pro-cyclical tax cuts, the government will not be able to increase deficit spending by a lot because it will not be able to afford the increased interest payments. And third, low unemployment seems to be causing inflation.

It would not be surprising if the rate on ten-year Treasury bonds rises to 5% or more over the next few years. With an inflation rate of 3%, the real yield will be back to a normal historic level of over 2%.

This normalization of the ten-year interest rate could cause the P/E ratio to return to its historical benchmark. A decline of that magnitude, from its current level of 40% above the historic average, would cause household wealth to shrink by about $8 trillion. The historic relationship between household wealth and consumer spending implies that the annual level of household consumption would decline by about 1.5% of GDP. That fall in household demand, and the induced decline in business investment, would push the US economy into recession.

If you have an enormous nest egg, a 2% real return on bonds doesn’t sound all that terrible. For the rest of us relying on stocks to help us build that nest egg (those of us lucky enough to have a little extra income to save, that is), this doesn’t seem like good news.

new hope in the fight against AIDS

From Bloomberg: New drugs mean not only that AIDS can be effectively managed in people that already have it, but that the risk of transmission can now be very low in people taking the drugs. Some drugs even have a strong protective effect for people who have not been exposed but are considered at risk of exposure. According to this article, eradication of the disease now seems possible for the first time.

applying the latest data science to intimate acts

WARNING: I never promised this would be a 100% family friendly blog. Nevertheless, it’s been awhile since I checked in on the latest sex robots. Well, this is a blog about the fabulous science fiction future, and we all need to face up to the fact that sex robots are likely to be a part of that.

Anyway, I offer this paper first of all because it’s funny, and second of all because even if it turns out to be a joke, the technology to analyze videos of thousands of hours of sexual acts, analyze them using the latest data science techniques, and program the results into a robot almost certainly all exist. Yesterday’s “phone sex” will almost certainly evolve into tomorrow’s virtual brothel. I think it is more or less harmless although it means the way real human beings interact with each other will continue to evolve. But that has been going on for a long time and there is no reason to think it should stop now.

 

Swedes getting chippy

According to NPR, people in Sweden are voluntarily inserting microchips into their fingers and using them for identification and payment.

The chips are designed to speed up users’ daily routines and make their lives more convenient — accessing their homes, offices and gyms is as easy as swiping their hands against digital readers.

They also can be used to store emergency contact details, social media profiles or e-tickets for events and rail journeys within Sweden…

Around the size of a grain of rice, the chips typically are inserted into the skin just above each user’s thumb, using a syringe similar to that used for giving vaccinations. The procedure costs about $180.

There are also some interesting statistics on the declining use of cash in Sweden. The article says that in Stockholm only 1 in 4 people uses cash once a week (or more) and only 15 percent of retail transactions involve cash (and this was already down to less than half as of 2010).

“organic” eating may lower cancer risk after all

I haven’t always been on the “organic” band wagon 100%. For one thing, the name is stupid. Chugging a glass of diesel fuel would be about as organic as you could get, in terms of the definition of the word I learned in high school chemistry. I am strongly in favor of sustainable farming practices that build soil, protect biodiversity, and prevent groundwater and surface water pollution. But in terms of health benefits, I have never felt the benefits were all that proven, and to some extent the industry is just based on scare tactics. I also wonder if the billions of humans on the planet can be fed without resorting to fossil fuel-derived fertilizer, and I still think that is dubious. But here is one large study in JAMA that did find significant evidence of a link between organic food (as labeled at the grocery store) and reduced cancer risk.

Association of Frequency of Organic Food Consumption With Cancer Risk: Findings From the NutriNet-Santé Prospective Cohort Study

Main Outcomes and Measures This study estimated the risk of cancer in association with the organic food score (modeled as quartiles) using Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for potential cancer risk factors.

Results Among 68 946 participants (78.0% female; mean [SD] age at baseline, 44.2 [14.5] years), 1340 first incident cancer cases were identified during follow-up, with the most prevalent being 459 breast cancers, 180 prostate cancers, 135 skin cancers, 99 colorectal cancers, 47 non-Hodgkin lymphomas, and 15 other lymphomas. High organic food scores were inversely associated with the overall risk of cancer (hazard ratio for quartile 4 vs quartile 1, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.63-0.88; P for trend = .001; absolute risk reduction, 0.6%; hazard ratio for a 5-point increase, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.88-0.96).

Conclusions and Relevance A higher frequency of organic food consumption was associated with a reduced risk of cancer. Although the study findings need to be confirmed, promoting organic food consumption in the general population could be a promising preventive strategy against cancer.

I researched the risk measures a little. The hazard risk ratio of 0.75 means that people eating mostly organic food (scoring in the top 25% of however they are measuring that) are 25% less likely than people eating the least organic food. That seems significant. From a quick skim, it appears they did try to control for differences in lifestyle (i.e., similar nutrition and exercise levels) and family history of cancer when coming to their conclusions.