Author Archives: rdmyers75@hotmail.com

the next financial crisis

There seems to be increasing concern among economists, journalists and politicians that another severe financial crisis could be looming in the next few years. Of course, the next recession, war or disaster is inevitable and to be expected at some point. The question is how resilient or panic-prone our financial system is when something inevitably happens.

Axios suggests that as advanced economies raise interest rates, they could force debt-laden emerging markets into situations where they can’t afford interest payments. Turkey is of particular concern, and owes large amounts of money to European countries. A trade war is also a concern.

Nouriel Roubini gives ten reasons why a severe financial crisis may be coming, starting with interest rates being too low to give countries any chance to react to a crisis by lowering them (which is probably why they are trying to gradually raise them in the first place.) He also mentions poor (or no) U.S. policies towards trade, immigration, and infrastructure, and high-speed trading algorithms.

Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard, argues that U.S. policy is unnecessarily pro-cyclical in in terms of expanded government spending, lowered taxes, reduced capital requirements for banks, and political criticism of the Federal Reserve.

Let’s hope a consensus among the experts is actually a contrarian indicator.

virtual reality and philosophy

That’s right, this article is about virtual reality and philosophy.

Why Is Virtual Reality Interesting for Philosophers?

This article explores promising points of contact between philosophy and the expanding field of virtual reality research. Aiming at an interdisciplinary audience, it proposes a series of new research targets by presenting a range of concrete examples characterized by high theoretical relevance and heuristic fecundity. Among these examples are conscious experience itself, “Bayesian” and social VR, amnestic re-embodiment, merging human-controlled avatars and virtual agents, virtual ego-dissolution, controlling the reality/virtuality continuum, the confluence of VR and artificial intelligence (AI) as well as of VR and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), VR-based social hallucinations and the emergence of a virtual Lebenswelt, religious faith and practical phenomenology. Hopefully, these examples can serve as first proposals for intensified future interaction and mark out some potential new directions for research.

The main thing I got from this article is that it is really…long. It starts with a glossary of terms you need to learn before you read the rest of the paper, then gets longer from there.

rating news

I have an idea that maybe others have already thought of, but I haven’t seen it proposed (or implemented) in exactly the form i am thinking of. With all the newfound concern over “fake news”, misinformation, and disinformation, alongside good-old-fashioned government and corporate propaganda (which to its consternation is having some trouble competing with the former), I don’t see why news stories couldn’t be rated or certified as reliable by independent third parties. That is, you could pull up a news story from any of a number of outlets and see that it has the stamp of approval of a particular organization, say the Associated Press or the United Nations. Sites like Politifact and Snopes sort of do this now, but they aren’t rating individual stories. Any organization could create its own rating system, but at least people could choose a rating system they trusted and then either filter their search results or simply have the ratings they are interested in displayed, perhaps in a browser plug-in. It wouldn’t be perfect because it would give people way of filtering so they only hear what they want to hear, but at least we would be doing this explicitly rather than having hidden, amoral, profit-seeking algorithms decide behind the scenes what we see or don’t see.

James Bond

Part of my summer bucket list was to read one of the old Ian Fleming James Bond books. In the end, I read them all. They are not long and not hard to read. Here are 10 things that surprised me about the literary James Bond.

Warning: This post contains minor spoilers, in case you were thinking of wading into Ian Fleming yourself. Parents, be warned it also contains the P word. PUSSY! There, I said it and it’s out of my system. Actually, I just heard an NPR announcer say it today (talking about the Russian band Pussy Riot) and it made me laugh out loud.

  1. He does order at least one vodka martini shaken not stirred, but his favorite drink by far is bourbon. He drinks enormous quantities of the stuff. He never orders less than a double and sometimes he orders it by the tumbler or just downs it straight from the bottle. In at least one case he mixes it with coffee and takes it with him on a mission that involves climbing trees, firearms and hand-to-hand combat. He definitely drinks in part to unwind after, and sometimes during, a hard day of spying. He occasionally drinks beer or wine, but you get the idea that is just to stay hydrated between bourbons. He also drinks enormous quantities of coffee and states emphatically many times in multiple books how much he despises tea.
  2. He also smokes enormous amounts of cigarettes all day every day.
  3. Somehow, despite this lifestyle he stays in excellent physical condition. Once, it catches up to him a bit and he is ordered to detox in a health clinic for a couple weeks, which is all it takes to restore him to perfect health. This is all somewhat amusing until you learn that Ian Fleming drank and smoked heavily, leading to several heart attacks that ultimately killed him in his 50s. So viewed through that lense, it reads a little like a fantasy of someone who is not in good health but imagines an alter-ego who is. Imagine if Clark Kent downed a bottle of scotch every day, knowing that it couldn’t hurt him. Well, Ian Fleming was no Superman but James Bond sort of was.
  4. He seems most relaxed and engaged in life when he is in dangerous, risky situations that would be extremely stressful for a normal person. When he has a period of relative safety and office work, he gets depressed. This reminds me of possibly the only more famous fictional British character, Sherlock Holmes. He was similar in that he would get bored and depressed when he had a lull in between cases. Like Bond, he turned to substance abuse (cocaine in his case) to get through these periods, and like Bond, he seemed to suffer no lasting ill effects. Both also fake their deaths after defeating an arch-enemy and later resurface. Ian Fleming and Conan Doyle’s character Watson were war veterans (World War II and Afghanistan, respectively), and would have seen some serious shit in their time, which I imagine might have taken more of a toll than it took on their fictional supermen. I’m sure Fleming would have read and been influenced by Conan Doyle.
  5. Pussy Galore was a woman who preferred the company of other women, until she met James Bond… James Bond seems to have a complicated, yet simple, view of lesbians. If they are young and attractive (to men), they are okay and if they are not, they tend to be evil, especially if they prey on young women who are attractive to men.
  6. Speaking of the P word, Octopussy is an actual octopus, showing up briefly in a short story found in Fleming’s notes after his death. James Bond is mostly fearless but he has a weird phobia about octopuses, seeming to believe that they are among the most deadly sea creatures. I’ve done a little research and other than the poisonous ones in Australia, there is almost no evidence of octopuses posing any serious threat to humans, and certainly not killing them.
  7. James Bond is not a particular fan of gay men, short people, Japanese people and people with disabilities. He seems to like black people, gypsies, and Americans overall although he occasionally spouts various slurs and generalizations about them. He is not bothered when one close friend recalls raping someone. In one instance he himself is guilty of something bordering on date rape, although the woman involved does not seem concerned about it afterward. He generally treats women and people in general with respect when he encounters them one on one, however.
  8. One Bond story is a first person account of a young woman’s coming of age, including some sexual exploits, some of which involve James Bond. Perhaps Ian Fleming was bored and wanted to experiment a bit with that one.
  9. He doesn’t always get the girl. Well, usually he gets the girl, but typically only one per novel, and occasionally zero, or there is just a sense of mounting sexual tension which might lead to something offscreen.
  10. The novels are not as violent as the movies. James Bond states several times that he does not kill in cold blood. He generally kills in self defense or occasionally in revenge, and feels some regret about it. The women he sleeps with are not killed constantly like they are in the movies. The villain pretty much always dies, but not always in a violent one-on-one showdown like in the movies. Sometimes it is in a more anti-climactic way. One thing is exactly like the movies – the villains do tend to leave James Bond in “an easily escapable situation involving an overly elaborate and exotic death,” as Dr. Evil put it in Austin Powers. They do sometimes explain why they do this – basically some mixture of sadism, ego, and over-confidence. It’s not quite convincing, but hey, these stories are fantasies in the end.

It was fun reading these books and I’m not sure why I didn’t do it sooner. Rest in peace, Ian Fleming, and long live your indestructible fictional alter ego.

the body count from Fukushima

This article has some stats on casualties from the tsunami and nuclear meltdown in Japan following the 2011 tsunami. I don’t want to trivialize the tragic loss of life here, just highlight some stats that were surprising to me.

  • deaths from cancer linked to radiation: 1, a worker responding to the disaster on the Fukushima site as it was occurring
  • suicides: 1 (mentioned in this article)
  • radiation-related illnesses not resulting in death: 4
  • deaths while being evacuated from hospitals near the disaster: 40
  • deaths caused by the tsunami: 18,000
  • people displaces from their homes by the disaster: 160,000

Overall you have to say it is great that people did not die in large numbers from radiation poisoning or cancer. People probably contracted cancer from smoking and not wearing enough sunscreen in greater numbers during the disaster. But if you want a gloomy way to look at it, at least for me a nuclear meltdown is now a less scary thing and a “thinkable” event, and that might not be good.

the old sucking the blood of the young?

There is grisly research where a young mouse is sown together with an old mouse and their blood vessels are connected. This seems to benefit the old mouse. And no, I haven’t watched “human centipede” and I have no desire to, although I did find the South Park parody of it moderately funny.

Beyond the stupidity of human centipede, you can imagine a mad dictator or Bond villain somewhere forcing people to be blood donors against their will. A more benign version would have biotech firms trying to synthesize whatever it is that makes young blood good, or possibly using stem cells to make a young version of a person’s blood. What if a version of me could be created that was just a bag of meat with no nervous system, and pumped out blood that kept me alive? That seems creepy but not necessarily unethical. Add a brain and keep that person sedated or otherwise detained against their will, and that would clearly be unethical (not to mention basically the plot of The Island.)

smart drugs

This BBC article talks about how some people are using amphetamines like Adderall and Ritalin to stay focused and motivated in high pressure jobs. It clearly works, at least for short periods of time. It is not clear whether it can work longer term, because people may either need a significant recovery period to recover from use of the drugs, during which they are less focused and motivated than normal, or else they may become addicted to the drugs. But the article also points out that the new drugs are not qualitatively different from using coffee to stay focused and productive – it is just a matter of differences in degree and chemistry, and coffee has proven to be safe and even beneficial to most people.

half the world’s power from the Sahara

There’s a big idea to provide half the world’s energy from solar panels in the Sahara desert, using the actual desert sand as a raw material to manufacture the panels. An interesting article in Science says that wind and solar farms on such a large scale could actually change the local weather drastically by altering wind and surface temperatures, ultimately increasing rainfall and allowing more vegetation in the desert.

In this study, we used a climate model with dynamic vegetation to show that large-scale installations of wind and solar farms covering the Sahara lead to a local temperature increase and more than a twofold precipitation increase, especially in the Sahel, through increased surface friction and reduced albedo. The resulting increase in vegetation further enhances precipitation, creating a positive albedo–precipitation–vegetation feedback that contributes ~80% of the precipitation increase for wind farms. This local enhancement is scale dependent and is particular to the Sahara, with small impacts in other deserts.

Could this work on Mars? I guess not, because you don’t have the water vapor in the atmosphere to begin with. Unless you get that alien ice breaker thing from Total Recall (the 1990 version, again, I don’t recognize the 2012 version’s right to exist) – why do I keep coming back to this movie?

Ford signals self-driving car’s “intent”

Ford is trying a set of blinking lights to help pedestrians understand whether a self-driving car is likely to stop or run them over. Somewhat interesting, but really I think the legal responsibility needs to be on the car’s owner/programmer and not the pedestrian. If this saves a few lives by preventing a few otherwise unavoidable crashes it is a good thing. If it creates an excuse to blame the victim, it is a bad thing. In recent U.S. history at least, the situation between driver and pedestrian has almost always been the latter.

A back-and-forth white light means the car is yielding. When the car is about to go, the white light quickly blinks. Ford said it’s trying to find a way to communicate that doesn’t use text.

Once cars are machine-driven, any pedestrian-driver communication gets a lot harder. So how does a woman walking or a kid biking check in with a car to know it’s safe to cross the street?