Author Archives: rdmyers75@hotmail.com

could Marxism make a comeback?

Maybe, according to this Marxist professor writing on Truthout.org.

Within the broad Marxian tradition, some strands offer both analyses and policies that differ sharply from anything offered by either neoclassical or Keynesian economics. To take perhaps the clearest example, many Marxists focus on the undemocratic position of capitalists within enterprises (individual owners and corporate boards of directors). Their decisions on whether and how to invest net revenues determine the shape of the macroeconomy for all. A minority focused on enterprise profits as “the bottom line” makes decisions impacting the jobs, incomes, debts, etc. of a majority to which it is not democratically accountable. This minority’s expectations, desires and “animal spirits” (as Keynes put it) causes instability, in the Marxian view. The policy suggestion emerging from that view focuses on a program to “democratize the enterprise” as a solution to instability. Replacing hierarchical undemocratic capitalist enterprises with democratically organized worker cooperatives – where each enterprise member has one vote in deciding key matters, such as investment decisions – is a way forward that neither neoclassical nor Keynesian economists have yet allowed to be debated in public and academic forums. We will all be better off when the current narrowness of economics is opened up to include more basic proposals for change adequate to the depth and scope of capitalism’s current problems.

I’m not sure where I “stand”, except I’d like to see more empirical testing of economic theories and less ideology. Even if we figured out which of the major economics religions is actually “the right one”, we still couldn’t expect it to pick solutions for us. It could identify a range of reasonably economically efficient solutions to a problem (and reject a lot of clearly dumb ones), but we would still have to pick one to try moving ahead with that best represented our values. But maybe with all those dumb solutions tossed out and better information at our fingertips about the range of good solutions, our messy political system would have a better chance of making good choices.

more from Peter Singer

In the article I mentioned yesterday, Peter Singer also gives a brief review of some climate change-related legal and political events going on internationally.

In 1992, countries, including the US, China, India, and all European states (and a total of 189 by 2006) accepted responsibility for addressing climate change. Meeting at the “Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro, they agreed to stabilize greenhouse gases “at a low enough level to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system…”

Yet, with very few exceptions, governments have failed to take sufficient action to halt climate change, and most exacerbate the danger by continuing to support the use of fossil fuels. Hence activists in Belgium, Colombia, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Switzerland, and the Netherlands are seeking to use the courts to gain what they cannot obtain through political action.

The first climate litigation to win a positive decision was Urgenda Foundation v. The State of Netherlands, in which a Dutch court ruled, in 2015, that the government must ensure that the country’s emissions are cut by one quarter within five years. In response, the Dutch government did step up its actions to reduce emissions, but it also appealed the judgment.

This article was written in December, and the Dutch court system did apparently uphold the decision in an October ruling.

the trial of the century

Peter Singer is arguing for the importance of the lawsuit brought by children against the United States government for failing to address climate change.

The plaintiffs claim that their government’s active contribution to climate change has violated their constitutional rights to life, liberty, and property. When the government sought to prevent the case from being heard, the federal district court of Oregon issued a historic ruling that “the right to a climate system capable of sustaining human life is fundamental to a free and ordered society.”

When Juliana v. United States is appealed to the US Supreme Court, as seems inevitable, the question may no longer be whether the preservation of the plaintiffs’ constitutional rights requires “a climate system capable of sustaining human life”; it undeniably does. Instead, the Court will have to decide whether it is willing to heed the scientific evidence that the actions of the US government are indeed jeopardizing the survival of human life on our planet. If it is, even the most conservative justices will find it difficult to escape the conclusion that the government is in violation of the US Constitution.

Vertical Farms

I’m listening to Dixon Despommier’s 2010 book Vertical Farming. I was expecting an architect-y, design-y kind of book, but it turns out Despommier is an ecologist and his main message is ecological. He believes the current system of farming has been a disaster for the planet’s ecosystems and that it is also headed for a catastrophic collapse with current and increased demands for food. His argument is to bring most agriculture into high rises in urban areas where it can be very carefully controlled. This would also allow the re-wilding of most land currently devoted to agriculture worldwide.

He argues that this an economical choice when the value of ecosystem services is considered (although he simultaneously makes this argument and rails against the idea of monetizing ecosystems at all). I’m a little more than halfway through the book and I haven’t gotten to the part where he argues that the cost of using artificial light rather than taking advantage of free and abundant sunlight is offset by other costs. I assume he is going to get to that. I also wonder if he is going to address the idea that removing one limit (in this case, the amount of food that can be produced with the planet’s available land and sunlight) in the long term could allow us to continue growing the population until we hit another limit. These are a couple questions I am curious how we will address, but overall I am enjoying the book. He does briefly bring up the idea that this could be a step toward moving into space or colonizing other planets.

ecosystem restoration and carbon sequestration

Ecosystem and soil restoration could offset around a fifth of U.S. carbon emissions, according to this article in Science Advances.

Limiting climate warming to <2°C requires increased mitigation efforts, including land stewardship, whose potential in the United States is poorly understood. We quantified the potential of natural climate solutions (NCS)—21 conservation, restoration, and improved land management interventions on natural and agricultural lands—to increase carbon storage and avoid greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. We found a maximum potential of 1.2 (0.9 to 1.6) Pg CO2e year−1, the equivalent of 21% of current net annual emissions of the United States. At current carbon market prices (USD 10 per Mg CO2e), 299 Tg CO2e year−1 could be achieved. NCS would also provide air and water filtration, flood control, soil health, wildlife habitat, and climate resilience benefits.

countering misinformation

Back in 2012, Columbia Journalism Review gave some tips for how the media can try to counter misinformation. It’s hard and nothing is foolproof, but there are some best practices. People tend to believe things they hear repeated, things that meet their preconceived notions, and statements from people and organizations they trust. One best practice is to state the truth in a positive way rather than as the negation of a false statement. Another is to not quote partisan or ideological sources when refuting the false statement. Another is using graphics where possible to give context to numbers.

microdosing

There are people taking small doses of LSD and other psychedelics every day for their possible/suspected health benefits, and there may actually be some science behind this.

Microdosing psychedelics – the regular consumption of small amounts of psychedelic substances such as LSD or psilocybin – is a growing trend in popular culture. Recent studies on full-dose psychedelic psychotherapy reveal promising benefits for mental well-being, especially for depression and end-of-life anxiety. While full-dose therapies include perception-distorting properties, microdosing may provide complementary clinical benefits using lower-risk, non-hallucinogenic doses. No experimental study has evaluated psychedelic microdosing, however; this pre-registered study is the first to investigate microdosing psychedelics and mental health. Recruited from online forums, current and former microdosers scored lower on measures of dysfunctional attitudes and negative emotionality and higher on wisdom, open-mindedness, and creativity when compared to non microdosing controls. These findings provide promising initial evidence that warrants controlled experimental research to directly test safety and clinical efficacy. As microdoses are easier to administer than full-doses, this new paradigm has the exciting potential to shape future psychedelic research.

Oumuamua

I tracked down the Harvard astrophysics paper that suggests this object could be an alien spacecraft or probe. They never say that it is one, only that its behavior would be consistent with one. Sadly, it seems like we missed the boat and it is too late to train our telescopes or send probes of our own in time to get a good look at the thing, so the best we can do is be on the lookout for others like it in the future.

October 2018 in Review

Most frightening stories:

  • The Trump administration has slashed funding to help the U.S. prepare for the next pandemic.
  • I read more gloomy expert opinions on the stability and resilience of the global financial system.
  • A new depressing IPCC report came out. Basically, implementing the Paris agreement is too little, too late, and we are not even implementing it. There is at least some movement towards a carbon tax in the U.S. – a hopeful development, except that oil companies are in favor of it which makes it suspicious. There is a carbon tax initiative on the ballot in Washington State this November that the oil companies appear to be terrified of, so comparing the two could be instructive, and the industry strategy may be to get a weaker law at the federal level as protection against a patchwork of tough laws at the state and local levels.

Most hopeful stories:

  • There is no evidence that kids in U.S. private schools do any better than kids in U.S. public schools, once you control for family income. (Okay – I admit I put this in the hopeful column because I have kids in public school.)
  • Regenerative agriculture is an idea to sequester carbon by restoring soil and  protecting biodiversity on a global scale.
  • Applying nitrogen fixing bacteria to plants that do not naturally have them may be a viable way to reduce nitrogen fertilizer use and water pollution.

Most interesting stories, that were not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps were a mixture of both:

  • New tech roundup: Artificial spider silk is an alternative to carbon fiber. Certain types of science, like drug and DNA experiments, can be largely automated. A “quantum internet” could mean essentially unbreakable encryption.
  • Modern monetary theory suggests governments might be able to print (okay, “create”) and spend a lot more money without serious repercussions. What I find odd about these discussions is they focus almost entirely on inflation and currency exchange values, while barely acknowledging that money has some relationship actual physical constraints. To me, it has always seemed that one function of the financial system is to start flashing warning lights and make us face the realities of how much we can do before we are all actually starving and freezing in the dark. It could be that we are in the midst of a long, slow slide in our ability to improve our physical quality of life, but instead of that manifesting itself as a long slow slide, it comes as a series of random shocks where one gets a little harder to recover from.
  • I read some interesting ideas on fair and unfair inequality. Conservative politicians encourage people not to make a distinction between alleviating poverty and the idea of making everybody equal. These are not the same thing at all because living just above the poverty line is no picnic and is not the same thing as being average. There is a strong moral case to be made that nobody “deserves” to live in poverty even if they have made some mistakes. And simply “creating jobs” in high-poverty areas sounds like a nice conservative alternative to handouts, except that there isn’t much evidence that it works.

fish wars?

Is it possible that part of the military confrontation over the South China Sea, among other places, is about access to fish? Yes, according to ABC (Australian Broadcast Corporation).

Through his research, Mr Bergenas has identified parallels between oil and fish resources.

“There is a concentrated supply. The Middle East has nearly half the world’s supply of recoverable crude,” says Mr Bergenas.

“Similarly, the central Pacific has 60 per cent of the world’s tuna which is a highly pursued commodity.”

Fishing boats are also sometimes being intentionally used as bait (no pun intended). If a Chinese fishing vessel gets attacked by, say, the Indonesian coast guard (I’m just making this up), China may then send in the navy to respond. In a way, it’s a similar strategy to settlers on the American frontier or the West Bank.