Category Archives: Month in Review

February 2015 in Review

This blog got 173 hits in February! Pretty cool, considering I really just meant it as a place to collect my own scattered thoughts and refer back to them later. If 173 out of the 6 billion people out there like it, I am flattered. Okay, I understand there may have been a few repeat visitors. Also, judging from the most popular posts, there is one thing I mention occasionally that people really like: robots!

Negative trends and predictions:

Fresh Air had an interview with Elizabeth Kolbert, author of The Sixth Extinction. The idea here is that what humans are doing to other species is equivalent in scope to events that have killed off most life on Earth in the past.
The drought in the western U.S. continues to grind on.
There are some depressing new books out there about all the bad things that could happen to the world, from nuclear terrorism to pandemics. Also a “financial black hole”, a “major breakdown of the Internet”, “the underpopulation bomb”, the “death of death”, and more!
Government fragmentation explains at least part of suburban sprawl and urban decline in U.S. states, with Pennsylvania among the worst.

Positive trends and predictions:

Libraries are starting to go high-tech using warehouse robot technology.
I had a rambling post on technologies to watch: carbon fiber, the internet of things, self-driving cars and trucks, biotechnology for everything from carbon sequestration to cancer treatment to agriculture, and of course more automation, robots, and artificial intelligence. And yes, Clark W. Griswold’s cereal varnish is a real thing!
U.S. utility solar capacity is slowly ramping up.
A new study suggests a sudden, catastrophic climate tipping point may not be too likely.
Robots can independently develop new drugs.
According to Google, self-driving taxis are only 2-5 years away.
Complex ecosystems can be designed.
Compost toilets may save the world…if we can get over the ick factor and the sawdust problem.
There are lots of cheap new options for the aspiring high-tech handymen (and women and children) among us. Even better news, we may have reached the point where if you build a robot with your kid in the basement, and he then tells other kids about it, he might not get beat up on the playground.
New York City has some good examples of green stormwater infrastructure integrated in sidewalk and street design.

One thing that strikes me is that we keep hearing about biotechnology, but we haven’t seen big, obvious impacts in most of our daily lives yet. I suspect biotechnology is like computers and robots in the 70s, 80s, and 90s – slow but steady progress was being made in the background, the pressure was building, and then the wave suddenly broke onto the commercial and public consciousness. I suspect biotechnology is the next big wave that is going to break.

January 2015 in Review

I’m dropping my “Hope for the Future Index” this year. If anyone out there is particularly attached to it, you can let me know.

Negative trends and predictions:

According to Mikhail Gorbachev, “Today’s key global problems – terrorism and extremism, poverty and inequality, climate change, migration, and epidemics – are worsening daily.”
Exxon predicts the rate of greenhouse gas emissions will stop growing…by 2030…at a level that will still cause atmospheric concentrations to continue rising. They try to present this as good news, but it is clearly a pathway to collapse if you think about it just a little bit.
Johan Rockstrom and company have updated their 2009 planetary boundaries work. The news is not getting any better. 4 of the 9 boundaries are not in the “safe operating space”: climate change, loss of biosphere integrity, land-system change, altered biogeochemical cycles (phosphorus and nitrogen).
By several measures, 2014 was the hottest year on record.
The Doomsday Clock has moved from 5 minutes to 3 minutes from midnight due to “climate change and efforts to modernize nuclear weapons stockpiles”.

Positive trends and predictions:

Taxi medallions have been called the “best investment in America”, but now ride-sharing services may destroy them. I put this in the positive column because I think the new services are better and this is a good example of creative destruction.
Remote controlled, robot-assisted surgery is here.
The ongoing tumble in oil prices was of course a big story throughout the month. We won’t really be able to say until we look back years from now whether this was just a short-term fluctuation or the reversal of the decades-long trend toward higher energy prices. My guess is the former.
It is starting to seem politically possible for the U.S. to strengthen regulation of risk-taking by huge financial firms.
Robots can learn to perform physical tasks by watching videos.
Howard T. Odum was a genius who invented a “system language” that, if widely understood and applied, might give humanity the tools to solve its problems. Unfortunately, so far it is not widely understood or applied.
There may be a realistic chance for a de-escalation of the Middle East nuclear arms race.

December 2014 in Review

At the end of November, my Hope for the Future Index stood at -2. I’ll give December posts a score from -3 to +3 based on how negative or positive they are.

Negative trends and predictions (-12):

When you consider roads, streets, and parking, cars take up more space in cities than housing. (-2)
The latest on productivity and economic growth: Paul Krugman says there is risk of deflationary spirals in many countries, and the U.S. economy is nothing to right home about. (-1)
There are a few legitimate scientists out there warning of sudden, catastrophic climate change in the near future. (-1)
Automation (meaning robots and AI) is estimated to threaten 47% of all U.S. jobs. One area of active research into automation: weaponry. Only one negative point because there are also some positive implications. (-1)
Margaret Atwood’s Year of the Flood is a depressing but entertaining reminder that bio-apocalypse is possible. (-2)
Before the recent rains, the drought in California was estimated to be a once-in-1200-years event. Major droughts in major food growing regions are not good news, especially with depletion of groundwater, and loss of snowpack and glaciers also in the news. (-2)
William Lazonick argues provides evidence that the rise in the gospel of shareholder value correlated with the growth slowdown that started in the 1970s – his explanation is that before that, retained earnings were a cornerstone of R&D and innovation in the economy. Loss of a point because it’s good to hear a dissenting voice, but the economy is still run by disciples of the profits for now. (-1)
Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are warning that the U.S. financial system may still be dangerously unstable. (-2)

Positive trends and predictions (+6):

There are some new ideas out there for teaching computer programming, even to young children: Loco Robo, Scratch, and for-profit “programming boot camps”. (+1)
You can now get genetically customized probiotics for your vagina. (+1)
There are plenty of ideas and models out there for safe, walkable streets, some as simple as narrower lanes. But as I point out, the Dutch and Danish designs are pretty much perfect and should just be adopted everywhere. (+1)
I linked to a new video depicting Michael Graves’s idea for “linear cities“. These could be very sustainable ecological if they meant the rest of the landscape is left in a mostly natural condition. I am not as sure about social sustainability – done wrong, they could be like living in a mall or subway station. This was one of my all-time more popular posts. (+1)
There are new algorithms out there for aggregating and synthesizing large amounts of scientific literature. Maybe this can increase the returns to R&D and help boost innovation. (+1)
There will be several international conferences in 2015 with potential to make real progress on financial stability and sustainability. The phrase “deep decarbonization” has been uttered. (+1)
Some evidence suggests that the oceans have absorbed a lot of global warming over the past decade or so, preventing the more extreme range of land surface warming that had been predicted. This is a good short- to medium-term trend, but it may not continue in the long term. (+0)

change during December 2014: -12 + 6 = -6

Hope for the Future Index (end of December 2014): -2 -6 = -8

November 2014 in Review

At the end of October, my Hope for the Future Index stood at -2. I’ll give November posts a score from -3 to +3 based on how negative or positive they are.

Negative trends and predictions (-6):

There is mounting evidence that the world economy is slowing, financial corporations are still engaged in all sorts of dirty tricks, and overall investment may be dropping. Financial authorities are trying to respond through financial means, but the connections are not being made to the right kinds of investments in infrastructure, skills, and protection of natural capital that would set the stage for long-term sustainable growth in the future. (-2)
Public apathy over climate change in the U.S. may have been manufactured by a cynical, immoral corporate disinformation campaign over climate change taken right out of the tobacco companies’ playbook. It’s true that the tobacco companies ultimately were called to account, but not until millions of lives were lost. Will it be billions this time? (-2)
Glenn Beck has gone even further off his rocker, producing a video suggesting the U.N. is going to ration food and burn old people alive while playing vaguely middle eastern music. One negative point because some people out there might not laugh. (-1)
The new IPCC report predicts generally negative effects of climate change on crops and fisheries. The good news is it doesn’t seem to predict catastrophic collapse, but we need to remember that the food supply needs to grow substantially in the coming decades, not just hold steady, so any headwinds making that more difficult are potentially threatening. (-1)

Positive trends and predictions (+6):

A lot is known about how to grow healthy trees in the most urbanized environments. But only a few cities really take advantage of this readily available knowledge. (+0)
As manufacturing becomes increasingly high-tech, automation vs. employment is emerging as a big theme for the future. The balance may swing back and forth over time, but in the long term I think automation has to win. New wealth will be created, but the question is how broadly it will be shared. The question is not just an economic one – it depends on the kind of social and political systems people will live under in various places. This might be why the field of economics was originally called “political economy”. So I’m putting this in the positive column but giving it no points because the jury is out. (+0)
Google is working on nanobots that can swim around in your blood and give an early diagnosis of cancer and other diseases. (+1)
Economic slowing is probably the main reason why oil prices are way down. Increased supply capacity from the U.S. also probably plays a role, although there are dissenting voices how long that is going to last. I find it hard to say whether cheaper oil is good or bad. I tend to think it is just meaningless noise on the longer time scale, but you won’t hear me complain if it brings down the price of transportation and groceries for a year or two. (+0)
Millennials aren’t buying cars in large numbers. I don’t believe for a second that this means they are less materialistic than past generations, but I think a shift in consumption from cars to almost anything else is a net gain for sustainability. (+2)
I discovered the FRAGSTATS package for comprehensive spatial analysis of ecosystems and habitats. This gives us quantitative tools to design green webs that work well for both people and wildlife. Bringing land back into our economic framework in an explicit way might also help. (+1)
“Perennial polyculture” gardens may be able to provide food year round on small urban footprints in temperate climates. (+1)
A vision for smart, sustainable infrastructure involves walkable communities, closing water and material loops, and using energy wisely. Pretty much the same points I made in my book, which I don’t actively promote on this site;) (+1)

Hope for the Future Index (end of October 2014): -2

change during November 2014: -6 + 6 = 0

Hope for the Future Index (end of November 2014): -2 + 0 = -2

October 2014 in Review

At the end of September, my Hope for the Future Index stood at +1. As I did last month, I’ll sort selected posts that talk about positive trends and ideas vs. negative trends, predictions, and risks. Just for fun, I’ll keep a score card and pretend my posts are some kind of indicator of whether things are getting better or worse. I’ll give posts a score from -3 to +3 based on how negative or positive they are.

Negative trends and predictions (-11):

The Wall Street Journal prints an op-ed by a climate change skeptic. Wait, I thought there was a pure consensus among serious scientists about climate change. Or is it just serious climatologists, with a few lone dissenting physicists like this guy? Either way, there is an overwhelming near-consensus and by printing this the WSJ gives the idea that there is still a significant debate, thereby reducing the chances of action being taken. Meanwhile, the New York Times tells us where in the U.S. to move as the heat creeps up on us – Alaska, Seattle, and Detroit. Tidal flooding may also become a bigger problem in coastal cities. (-1)
Economists and economic journalists are buzzing about a worldwide slowdown and an even more severe financial crisis that may be on the horizon. Europe, and France in particular, seem to be getting into dangerous territory right now. (-2)
The new Living Planet Report says our ecological footprint has not ticked up from 1.5 planets since the last Living Planet Report. That is, no change given the rounding error of 0.1 planets. Before we get too happy, remember that a number over 1 is meant to measure the rate of decline. So these would be mean not that our situation has stabilized, but that the rate of decline has not accelerated. (-1)
Slavery is a good example of how amoral profit-seeking private enterprise can lead to evil consequences. (-3)
The drought in California and the U.S. desert southwest continues to get worse. Ours is not the first civilization to be impacted by drought in the U.S. desert southwest, and hopefully we will deal with it better than last time. (-1)
The U.S. medical system may not be prepared for Ebola, and if not it would be even less well prepared for something even more serious. (-1)
The American entrepreneurial spirit may have slowed down over the last generation. If this is true, it would be yet one more drag on the innovation pickup the world needs. (-1)
Energy prices are down. I’m not smart enough to tell you definitively if this is good or bad. If it reflected a breakthrough in renewable energy technology and cost-effectiveness, or low energy, sustainable food production, it would be great news. I hope renewable energy is starting to have an effect. But the bulk of the effect, most likely, reflects upward pressure on supply from hydraulic fracturing, and downward pressure on demand from economic slowing in Asia and Europe. High energy and food prices over the past decade quite likely have a hand in the economic slowing. Economic slowing can lower the world’s ecological footprint a bit, but it can also slow down innovation and, of course, lead to unemployment, hunger, unrest and conflict. (-0)
Echoes of the Cold War are rearing their ugly head, with Sweden out searching for Russian submarines in its territorial waters. (-1)

Positive trends and predictions (+8):

Maybe green consumer behavior can be scaled up through clever advertising. (+1)
Mosquitoes are being purposely infected with a naturally occurring bacteria, then released to control Dengue fever. (+1)
Automation (i.e. increasing computer control of nearly everything) is really taking hold of our economy and society, with potentially positive consequences for overall productivity and wealth, but potentially negative consequences for employment and distribution of wealth, depending on how it is handled. (+0)
There really are a lot of good examples and a lot of knowledge out there on how to have a lot of healthy trees in cities. This is known technology. Now cities in North America and the developing world just need to catch up and adopt the technology. (+1)
The old economy, for example dirty old fossil fueled electric utilities and sleazy taxi companies, are fighting the new, such as solar road materials and ride sharing. As they realize the technological and economic tide is turning against them, they are fighting in legislatures and courts for special laws that are unfair in their favor. They might win some battles and retard progress for a while, but I don’t see how they can win the long-term war. (+1)
LED light bulbs are now the overwhelming best household lighting choice, even in terms of purchase price. (+1)
Developing countries today are achieving much better health outcomes than developing countries of the past did at similar income levels. (+1)
People are waking up to fact that computer-controlled cars may free up large amounts of space in cities for new uses. (+2)
New technology for freezing human eggs may give women more flexibility on how and when to start a family, but muddle the historical meaning of biological relationships and generations. (+0)

Hope for the Future Index (September 2014): +1

October 2014 change: -11 + 8 = -3

Hope for the Future Index (October 2014): +1 – 3 = -2

September 2014 in Review

At the end of August, my Hope for the Future Index stood at +1. As I did last month, I’ll sort selected posts that talk about positive trends and ideas vs. negative trends, predictions, and risks. Just for fun, I’ll keep a score card and pretend my posts are some kind of indicator of whether things are getting better or worse. I’ll give posts a score from -3 to +3 based on how negative or positive they are.

Negative trends and predictions (-8):

The drought in California’s Central Valley and on the Great Plains continues to get worse. (-1)
There are signs that Europe may be in a long-term economic depression. The term “new normal” is being batted around to describe a possible long term slowdown in growth affecting the entire world. (-2)
Governments and corporations are starting to use armed drones in crowd control. (-1)
In a new simulation of a society with increasing resource scarcity and technological innovation, increasing resource scarcity wins. (-1)
Meat and dairy consumption can’t continue rising at their current rate forever. (-1)
Herman Daly reminds us that the most common measure of economic growth does not distinguish between costs and benefits. Benjamin Friedman, in arguing that there is a moral imperative for economic growth, also used a more socially inclusive definition of growth than the most common one in use today. (-1)
The Ebola outbreak continues to get worse and worse, although people are arguing that this is not the type of plague that could threaten civilization itself. (-1)

Positive trends and predictions (+8):

Some countries have more sustainable policies than others, and the world could become more sustainable if we all copy the best examples. But even then, the world would probably not be sustainable enough. (+0)
People have come up with some novel ideas for backyard wildlife habitat. (+1)
Big companies are figuring out how to set up units that innovate more like startups. (+1)
Walkable cities with green infrastructure may help boost creativity and problem solving. There is plenty of evidence that walkability might be the single most important key to more sustainable cities. (+1)
There have actually been small advances in telepathy. Too soon to say if this will be used for good or evil. (+0)
There is a new generation of robot vacuum cleaners. Anything that can free humanity from the drudgery of house work has to be a good thing – almost any other use of our time has to be more productive, creative, or at least more fun. (+1)
There is some buzz about sustainable consumption. I just don’t know – the whole concept of “consumption” as an end in itself seems unsustainable to me. (+0)
There is also continuing buzz about “green growth” and “de-growth”, but in my opinion very little evidence that these ideas are catching on. (+0)
We were reminded that green infrastructure is more than just stormwater management. It’s a beautiful vision to link stormwater management, urban trees and parks, corridors and rural reserves together. But we need more people to share the vision and make it happen. (+1)
Another way to make cities a lot more sustainable is to have the price of parking actually reflect its total economic, social, and environmental cost, including the opportunity cost of the oceans of land that are just wasted. (+1)
Worldwide child mortality has dropped almost by half just since 1990. (+2)

Hope for the Future Index (August 2014): +1

August 2014 change: -8 + 8 = 0

Hope for the Future Index (September 2014): +1

August 2014 in Review

At the end of July, my Hope for the Future Index stood at -2. Let’s see if things got any better in August. As I did last month, I’ll sort selected posts that talk about positive trends and ideas vs. negative trends, predictions, and risks. Just for fun, I’ll keep a score card and pretend my posts are some kind of indicator of whether things are getting better or worse. I’ll give posts a score from -3 to +3 based on how negative or positive they are.

Negative trends and predictions (-8):

The Ebola outbreak is very sad and scary. Some people are calling this a “dress rehearsal” for the “big one” that could actually threaten humanity more widely. (-1)
New research on patents suggests that they have mixed effects, at best, in spurring innovation – they are effective in some industries (like drugs, chemicals, mechanical technology) but actually an impediment to innovation in others (like computers, electronics, medical technology). The former are examples of technologies with very clear “recipes” which can easily be copied, it seems to me, while the latter are complex and knowing how others have made them doesn’t necessarily mean you can make them easily. Another hypothesis would be that the computer industry just moves a lot faster, so knowing how somebody made something yesterday doesn’t help you compete with them, because they have already moved on to the next thing today. But if that is the case, should we be trying to speed up the slow industries rather than giving some players protections that slow or deter their potential competitors? (-0)
The drought in the western United States is looking worse and worse. Is it the “new normal”, or is it just a really bad drought, as happens from time to time? Unfortunately we can only answer this question in retrospect, but it seems prudent to take action as though it were the new normal. Even if it turns out just to be a bad drought, it is clear that snow packs we used to rely on are melting and that we have mined groundwater unsustainably in many places. These are things that urgently need new management strategies – lack of rain is just adding insult to injury. On a slightly positive note, agricultural has adapted to change in the past and may be able to adapt again. (-1)
In 1986 Ronald Reagan laid out a bold vision for complete elimination of nuclear weapons…which was interpreted by everyone else as a sign of him losing his mind. (-3)
A few people are questioning the gospel of shareholder value as the only thing a company, its management and employees have any business caring about. Milton Friedman, if not exactly spinning in his grave, might have rolled over just an inch or two. But most people and companies still take it as…well…gospel. Noam Chomsky can explain pretty well why this is likely to lead our civilization to ruin – because the long-term “externalities” not being considered, which are costs to everyone for the next several generations, are much larger than the short-term financial profits being made by a few shareholders today. (-2)
Cars – the more I think about it, the more I am coming to believe they are the root of all evil in our society, and they have to go. But a positive way of saying that is that we could really solve an enormous number of thorny, intertwined problems if we come up with better, cleaner, faster, cheaper, safer ways to get around, which really shouldn’t be hard! (-1)

Positive trends and predictions (+11):

I discovered NetLogo, which is a programming language supposedly even children can learn and use to do dynamic simulations. Educational tools like this are critical if we want to build a new generation of system thinkers with any chance to solve our problems. (+3)
There is new research on corridors and connectivity for wildlife habitat. This is important because we are not going to have many huge, interrupted reserves in the future and we need the connected patches and smaller reserves that remain, interspersed with the human-dominated landscape, to be as ecologically functional as possible. And it turns out that the human-dominated landscape itself does not have to be an ecological dead zone, but can actually be preferred by some wildlife such as some kinds of birds and bees (+1)
David Cameron has announced a bold plan to make chemotherapy “a thing of the past” through accelerated genetic research. (+1)
Elon Musk is trying to put sustainable colonies on Mars longer term as a hedge against human extinction, build cheap batteries for cheap electric cars and houses, build cheap solar panels to charge the batteries, and protect us against killer artificial intelligence. (+1)
Vermont is adopting the Genuine Progress Indicator, a GDP alternative that adjusts for natural capital depletion. The World Economic Forum also has a nifty GDP alternative index. (+1)
Grid parity for solar energy appears to be here, seriously for real this time. Economic mayhem for the business-as-usual fossil fueled utilities is likely to follow. (+3)
Speaking of economic mayhem, cap and trade is going on in California! And looks like it is going to add to the cost of gas…ten cents or so. Just a reminder that consumers can either pay that, or choose to adjust their lifestyle ever so slightly to include ten cents less driving. (+1)
A couple more fabulous science fiction technologies, which can be used for good or evil or none of the above, are here: virtual reality and remote control moths. (+0)

Hope for the Future Index (July 2014): -2

August 2014 change: -8 + 11 = +3

Hope for the Future Index (August 2014): +1

Wow, we’re in positive territory people!

July 2014 in Review

I’m going to do a “month in review” post where I sort selected posts that talk about positive trends and ideas vs. negative trends, predictions, and risks. Just for fun, I’ll keep a score card and pretend my posts are some kind of indicator of whether things are getting better or worse. I’ll give posts a score from -3 to +3 based on how negative or positive they are.