Category Archives: Peer Reviewed Article Review

maybe global warming isn’t causing as much drying as we thought?

I certainly have had the impression that both agriculture and natural ecosystems are becoming more water scarce due to global warming, and that this is going to be a big problem at some point. We hear that the Amazon (River basin) may be tipping into an arid ecosystem, which has implications for the entire global climate and food supply, for example. But this article in Water Resources Research suggests there may be some feedback loops being overlooked. If I can try to summarize in a couple sentences, the concern is that higher temperatures cause greater evaporation from soil and transpiration (evaporation of soil moisture through the pathway of plant roots and leaves), and this will lead to drying both in agricultural and natural ecosystems. But plants have mechanisms to resist this loss of moisture, specifically by closing stomata which are the openings in leaves through which transpiration takes place. The mechanism can offset some but not all of the increased drying effect.

The CO2 Balancing Act: Why Global Warming and Greening Don’t Dry Earth as Much as We Thought

While air warming and vegetation greening are widely assumed to intensify terrestrial drying through enhanced evapotranspiration, rising atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) may counteract this effect by inducing stomatal closure and reducing water depletion. However, the complex interplay between these factors has obscured their net impact on global terrestrial drying. Here, we develop a model that physically and effectively quantifies the relationships among evapotranspiration, [CO2], and climate and vegetation changes, which can explicitly reflect how CO2-mediated stomatal regulation interacts with climate and vegetation changes to modulate evapotranspiration. We find that, globally, the drying effects of warming and greening are largely offset by CO2-induced reductions in surface conductance (69.4% ± 16.9%) and associated meteorological feedbacks. This compensatory mechanism is overlooked in traditional drying indicators, that is, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) overestimates trends in drought-affected area (63.2% ± 10.1%), drought duration (58.7% ± 9.5%), and drought intensity (43.9% ± 7.7%) during 1982–2014 by ignoring CO2-vegetation-climate interactions, and similarly, potential evapotranspiration-based aridity index underestimates wetting trends by 66.1% ± 3.5%. Our results reveal a systematic bias in current global drying assessments, which exaggerate drying in aridifying regions while underestimating wetting trends elsewhere. These findings reinterpret the hydrological impacts of global change, demonstrating that [CO2] rise acts as a critical buffer against terrestrial drying. The study provides a mechanistic framework to reconcile observed greening with hydrological trends, offering transformative insights for ecohydrological modeling and water resource management in a high-[CO2] climate.

biodiversity decline

Out of many doom and gloom topics, biodiversity decline may be the gloomiest, or at least the gloomiest that the global political system and public by and large are not thinking about. With climate change, at least we all know something is going on even if we are bickering about it and not doing enough 50 years after we needed to start acting in a concerted way. Anyway, global insect decline is just beyond shocking. Here is just one article hot off the presses:

Long-term decline in montane insects under warming summers

Widespread declines in the abundance of insects portend ill-fated futures for their host ecosystems, all of which require their services to function. For many such reports, human activities have directly altered the land or water of these ecosystems, raising questions about how insects in less impacted environments are faring. I quantified the abundance of flying insects during 15 seasons spanning 2004–2024 on a relatively unscathed, subalpine meadow in Colorado, where weather data have been recorded for 38 years. I discovered that insect abundance declined an average of 6.6% annually, yielding a 72.4% decline over this 20-year period. According to model selection following information theoretic analysis of 59 combinations of weather-related factors, a seasonal increase in insect abundance changed to a seasonal decline as the previous summer’s temperatures increased. This resulted in a long-term decline associated with increasing summer temperatures, particularly daily lows, which have increased 0.8°C per decade. However, other factors, such as ecological succession and atmospheric elevation in nitrogen and carbon, are also plausible drivers. In a relatively pristine ecosystem, insects are declining precipitously, auguring poorly for this and other such ecosystems that depend on insects in food webs and for pollination, pest control, and nutrient cycling.

For a more general overview of the insect decline issue, I suggest this paper: Insect decline in the Anthropocene: Death by a thousand cuts.

There is some debate about which causes are more important than others, but like climate change, the causes are pretty much known (and one of them is climate change). Destruction of natural ecosystems to clear land for urban areas and agriculture is the biggest and most obvious. Massive use of pesticides and other agricultural chemicals. Heat and drought. The spread of invasive species.

The destruction of nature is just sad for everyone who values nature for its own sake. For those who don’t, it’s a little harder to come up with the elevator pitch for why this matters. Pollination has huge and obvious economic value, but maybe we can replace natural pollinators with domesticated bees for the most critical crops.

Beyond pollination, insects are the base of the food chain. Their disappearance is actually a symptom of loss of plant life, since many of them are herbivores and depend on plants. We should be able to help a little bit just by conserving or replanting some of the native trees and other plants we know they depend on in our urban areas and on farms. A guy I know wrote a paper about this.

Insects, in their function as herbivores, are also critical in transferring energy, biomass (i.e. carbon), and nutrients up the food chain to everything from birds to amphibians to fish. So their loss is a direct cause of the loss of a lot of these other animals. But in terms of the food supply, we can probably produce chickens and pigs and cows without them I suppose. So it’s a little hard to tell that “conservative” uncle at the Thanksgiving table that there is some imminent tipping point where the bugs dwindle to a certain level and then we all starve to death. (“Conservative” is in quotes because a true conservative would be interested in, well, conserving things not destroying them.)

unifying “Green Area Factor” and “No Net Loss of Biodiversity” measures

Here in the US, implementing these types of policies seems mostly like a political pipedream at the moment. I could imagine a really smart developer doing this as a marketing scheme, maybe. maybe. But this is a great article that gives us a window into some things that are being tried in Europe (although, I also hear voices in Europe speaking longingly of the perceived lack of regulation in the US). I don’t know – our regulations may be equally strong or stronger in some areas like hydrology and water quality (which is missing from the framework discussed here btw) wetland and floodplain protection, and endangered species (although these are under constant political threat). Ideally in my view, species would not have to get endangered first before we will do anything for them.

More than the sum of its parts – Integrating the use of green area factor tool and biodiversity offsetting for no net loss urban planning

As part of the actions to fight biodiversity loss, the European Union is working on a restoration regulation demanding the principle of no net loss (NNL) state of biodiversity of urban green space. Applying this principle in urban planning may raise conflicts between biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services provision. Furthermore, integrating the NNL of biodiversity principle into urban planning cannot be isolated from existing planning tools or processes. Here we present a novel approach where the green area factor tool and biodiversity offsetting are integrated to achieve NNL of biodiversity in urban planning, while maintaining the necessary ecosystem services and avoiding the negative, unintended tradeoffs that may occur if only one of these tools is used in the planning process. We provide a model which combines the two approaches to create a holistic method to understand and govern both biodiversity and ecosystem services of urban greenery. The model is intended to be used as part of urban planning processes.

roots = more infiltration

The presence of growing plant roots and organic matter will increase the rate water can move into the soil. We all know this from elementary school, right? Right? Well, some adult professionals are unfamiliar or skeptical. I won’t call out any of my fellow civil engineers by name.

The Effect of Herbaceous and Shrub Combination with Different Root Configurations on Soil Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity

Information on the effects of differences in root and soil properties on Saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) is crucial for estimating rainfall infiltration and evaluating sustainable ecological development. This study selected typical grass shrub composite plots widely distributed in hilly and gully areas of the Loess Plateau: Caragana korshinskii, Caragana korshinskii and Agropyron cristatum (fibrous root), and Caragana korshinskii and Artemisia gmelinii (taproot). Samples were collected at different distances from the base of the shrub (0 cm, 50 cm), with a sampling depth of 0–30 cm. The constant head method is used to measure the Ks. The Ks decreased with increasing soil depth. Due to the influence of shrub growth, there was significant spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of Ks at different positions from the base of the shrub. Compared to the sample location situated 50 cm from the base of the shrub, it was observed that in a single shrub plot, the Ks at the base were higher, while in a grass shrub composite plot, the Ks at the base were lower. Root length density, >0.25 mm aggregates, and organic matter were the main driving factors affecting Ks. The empirical equation established by using principal component analysis to reduce the dimensions of these three factors and calculate the comprehensive score was more accurate than the empirical equation established by previous researchers, who considered only root or soil properties. Root length density and organic matter had significant indirect effects on Ks, reaching 52.87% and 78.19% of the direct effects, respectively. Overall, the composite plot of taproot herbaceous and shrub (Caragana korshinskii and Artemisia gmelinii) had the highest Ks, which was 82.98 cm·d−1. The ability of taproot herbaceous plants to improve Ks was higher than that of fibrous root herbaceous plants. The research results have certain significance in revealing the influence mechanism of the grass shrub composite on Ks.

Ozempic vs. drug and alcohol abuse

This journal article suggests GLP-1 drugs (Ozempic) are effective in reducing opioid and alcohol abuse.

The association between glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide and/or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist prescriptions and substance-related outcomes in patients with opioid and alcohol use disorders: A real-world data analysis

Prescriptions of glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide and/or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists appear to be associated with lower rates of opioid overdose and alcohol intoxication in patients with opioid use disorder and alcohol use disorder. The protective effects are consistent across various subgroups, including patients with comorbid type 2 diabetes and obesity.

3-30-300

The idea is you can see 3 trees from your window, your neighborhood has 30% tree canopy cover, and you are within 300 m of a half-hectare park.

Parks Please! Implementing the 3–30-300 green space rule in developing countries − The case of Surakarta, Indonesia

Interest in the 3–30–300 green space rule has recently emerged in urban forest scholarship, but its applicability in developing country contexts, especially in intermediate cities, remains largely unexplored. This study assesses the feasibility of the rule’s three components—visibility of three trees from every building, achieving 30 % neighborhood canopy cover, and ensuring 300-meter walking access to 0.5-hectare parks—using geospatial analysis. We employ a combination of remote sensing data, local administrative records, and open-source global datasets to evaluate tree canopy cover, greenspace distribution, and accessibility under different scenarios. Our case study focuses on Surakarta, an intermediate city recognized as Indonesia’s most livable city. Results show that only 29 % of buildings meet the visibility requirement, 2 % are in neighborhoods with 30 % canopy cover, and 25 % are within 300 m of a greenspace. However, accessibility could increase to 79 % if all greenspaces were fenceless and high quality. Our findings highlight disparities in urban greening, as smaller residential buildings tend to have lower scores than larger office buildings. These results underscore the role of park governance in shaping access to green spaces and the persistent challenges of achieving the 3–30–300 targets. We propose place-based recommendations tailored for each urban commune and advocate for the adoption of the 3–30–300 rule as a target for national and local development planning to enhance urban green space accessibility and equity. This framework has the potential to be used in participatory planning processes for consensus-based siting of green infrastructure and nature-based solutions in cities in developing countries.

My city (Philadelphia, USA) has set the 30% canopy goal in the past and failed to implement it. Not only failed, but failed to maintain the inadequate tree canopy we already have. Part of the reason is dysfunctional and uncoordinated government agencies, and part of the problem is the “sidewalks are private property” farce.

11 square miles of moss

11 square miles covered with moss since 1986 just doesn’t sound all that dramatic to me, but apparently for Antarctica this is a big deal and not a good sign. Apparently it has been happening for awhile in (originally sarcastically named?) Greenland, and it is not as big of a surprise there, but it is still not a good sign.

those f-ed up spreadsheets

I’ve seen a lot of fucked up spreadsheets in my time. In fact, you could probably say most spreadsheets contain errors, and this article confirms it. Nonetheless, quality control procedures that apply to other types of software (and spreadsheets are a very useful kind of software because they are very powerful and have an easy learning curve, which is also their downfall) can and should be adapted to spreadsheets. One of the most important ones (which really applies to any program or project) is to begin the quality control process in the planning and concept development phase.

Spreadsheet quality assurance: a literature review

Spreadsheets are very common for information processing to support decision making by both professional developers and non-technical end users. Moreover, business intelligence and artificial intelligence are increasingly popular in the industry nowadays, where spreadsheets have been used as, or integrated into, intelligent or expert systems in various application domains. However, it has been repeatedly reported that faults often exist in operational spreadsheets, which could severely compromise the quality of conclusions and decisions based on the spreadsheets. With a view to systematically examining this problem via survey of existing work, we have conducted a comprehensive literature review on the quality issues and related techniques of spreadsheets over a 35.5-year period (from January 1987 to June 2022) for target journals and a 10.5-year period (from January 2012 to June 2022) for target conferences. Among other findings, two major ones are: (a) Spreadsheet quality is best addressed throughout the whole spreadsheet life cycle, rather than just focusing on a few specific stages of the life cycle. (b) Relatively more studies focus on spreadsheet testing and debugging (related to fault detection and removal) when compared with spreadsheet specification, modeling, and design (related to development). As prevention is better than cure, more research should be performed on the early stages of the spreadsheet life cycle. Enlightened by our comprehensive review, we have identified the major research gaps as well as highlighted key research directions for future work in the area.

Greenland ice shelves

The floating ice shelves holding back the rest of the ice on Greenland are in worse shape than previously thought, according to this article. The article says the ice in this area is enough to raise global sea level by about 2 m. From a quick skim, I didn’t get a sense of how long the authors think that might take to happen, other than “long term”.

more evidence for rapid intensification

Anecdotally, we have seen an increase in rapid intensification of hurricanes in recent years. A “new study” (which the journalist does not name or link to, a pet peeve of mine) confirms this using data.

The study looked at 830 Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1971. It found that in the last 20 years, 8.1% of the time storms powered from a Category 1 minor storm to a major hurricane in just 24 hours. That happened only 3.2% of the time from 1971 to 1990, according to a study in the journal Scientific Reports. Category 1 hurricanes top out at 95 mph (153 kph) and a hurricane has to have at least 111 mph (178 kph) winds to become major.

When storms rapidly intensify, especially as they near land, it makes it difficult for people in the storm’s path to decide on what they should do — evacuate or hunker down. It also makes it harder for meteorologists to predict how bad it will be and for emergency managers to prepare, Garner and other scientists said.

Associated Press

Insurance companies take note of these things, and recall that the National Flood Insurance Program does not cover wind damage. If you live near the coast, this could be catastrophic for you. I predict the government will have to start picking up more and more of the tab for storms and other natural disasters over time, and this will gradually make us all a little poorer as we can’t afford to have other nice things, even if we don’t live near the coast.