Category Archives: Web Article Review

What did DOGE actually do?

This article is by David Walker, a former US Comptroller General.

Contrary to assertions by some, DOGE has not conducted audits. Rather, it has performed targeted and tactical transaction reviews of selected government information systems using artificial intelligence capabilities.

Its objective has been to identify possible fraud, waste, abuse and mismanagement in an effort to cut federal spending. Musk announced a goal to save $2 trillion, but this was later reduced to $1 trillion and then to $500 billion, which has still proven to be overly optimistic. DOGE now claims to have achieved about $160 billion in savings, but this number may be significantly overstated based on the evidence provided…

While DOGE has so far fallen far short of any of its financial goal, it has brought some important things to light. For example, it has uncovered a number of concrete examples of significant waste in the federal government, and it has re-exposed many of its operational problems, such as outdated information systems and inadequate internal controls. A vast majority of these operational problems were previously identified by the Government Accountability Office and various inspectors general.

So, they just tried to feed all the government’s data into an AI and identify some waste, fraud, and abuse. On the face of it, it doesn’t seem like such a terrible job to do that routinely, or just add it to the audit toolbox as this guy is suggesting. So why all the drama and general crazy?

It occurs to me though that the approach was shockingly ignorant in many ways. They seem to have assumed that nothing the government does has any benefits, only costs, and therefore any reduction in spending would be a savings. Government accounting in general does not distinguish between spending and investment, which has always been a problem. I could “save” money by not going to the dentist any more, for example, but I would pay for it many times over both in money and pain sometime in the not too distant future.

The Clinton-Gore administration executed a rational, effective, and somewhat brutal government efficiency campaign in the 1990s. You can hear about it on Planet Money: The Last Time We Shrank the Federal Workforce.

Rationally speaking, the government should step in to improve citizens’ lives where private markets are obviously not able to deliver, like on health care, child care, education, fundamental research, unemployment and disability insurance, and retirement. It should create a level playing field for businesses large and small, regulate anticompetitive practices, set minimum labor and environmental standards, maintain public safety, and provide for the common defense. It should use a portion of the value added by a healthy economy to do these things, which reinforce the healthy economy in a positive loop. I’m not a genius tech bro but these things are obvious to me.

make America great…maybe by lowering infant mortality to at least the average among developed countries?

Infant mortality is a grim subject. Our World in Data provides a grim but interesting look at the details of how this data is collected and standardized. (Now for context, infant mortality across developed countries is much less than 1%, which is a happy thing, and in the most successful countries – Japan and Scandinavia – it is close to 0.1%.) For example, doctors have to make a call on what constitutes a live birth, and it makes a difference how premature births are counted, since very premature babies have a low chance of survival. The U.S. counts all live births in its official numbers no matter how premature. Regardless of these details, infant mortality in the U.S. sticks out like a sore thumb on the chart for being about twice as high as the eyeball average (let’s call these numbers 0.5% and 0.25%). Shame.

Infants are defined as up to one month in age, and the article says the main factors driving mortality in babies this young have to do with the health of the mother. So we’re back to the U.S. not having a well-functioning health care system accessible to all, and lifestyle factors including obesity.

Here’s another article on increases in cancer diagnoses in Americans under 50. Part of the reason is more and sensitive screening at younger ages, so we may be catching more cancers that have always existed and treating them earlier. But part of it comes back to lifestyle. We tend to be afraid of chemicals, but again obesity is mentioned as a major factor. If we really wanted to get serious about making America healthy (again? when was the golden age of awesome health exactly?), seriously tacking obesity might be the single best place to start.

more Peter Turchin on Trump

Peter Turchin doesn’t really believe in grass-roots popular movements. Behind any apparent popular movement, he sees a “counter elite” competing for dominance over the current elite. In the present moment, this means the Trump movement vs. what I would call the center-right consensus of the last three decades or so.

The initial state of shock is now transforming into a more active phase, judging by a surge of recent mainstream media editorials and statements by various establishment figures who call for “mobilization,” “mass protest,” “national civic uprising,” and “revolution” (in my terms, counter-revolution). In a recent post on Racket News, Are We in a “Soft” Civil War?, Matt Taibbi provides an impressive sample of such calls to action. (In my view, we’ve been in a soft, that is, relatively non-violent, civil war since 2016. Now it is a revolution.) …

He then goes through the different ways the revolution could proceed: (1) assassination, (2) impeachment, (3) “sectional secession” – the example given is California refusing to follow federal orders, Trump sending in troops, and the governor mobilizing national guard, (4) a “color revolution” – the example given is CIA operatives Trump has fired organizing an apparent grass-roots movement, (5) military coup, (6) “the inertial scenario” which basically means Democrats trying to resist through traditional legislative and election politics, (7) “suppression by external Great Powers”, and (8) restoration by an internal faction (King Obama! okay, that is my example). He says #6 looks most likely but is not likely to be successful.

One can imagine combinations of these. If shadowy forces are plotting under #4, an apparent grass-roots movement can be combined with a not entirely free and fair election (hello, Ukraine and many other countries where the CIA has mucked about). You can imagine a not entirely free and fair election where the military steps in supposedly on the side of the constitution and announces resumption of the normal constitutional process in a year or two, which may or may not happen (hello, Thailand and many other countries).

Turchin says #7 is unlikely, but I wonder. No country is going to mount a full frontal military assault on the United States, I don’t think. But our federal government is deeply dysfunctional and incompetent, and while we may be able to bump along during relatively normal times we will not be able to respond competently to an unexpected emergency. If I were a competent enemy of the United States, I would mount a cyberattack or terrorist attack of some sort, cover my tracks, and frame some obvious public enemy (like Iran or China) for the crime. With an incompetent response, it might not take much to trigger a meltdown of systems like the financial system, power grid, food distribution system, etc. Even without a malign actor out there, it is doubtful our country could handle something like a major earthquake.

To be clear, I am hoping against hope that my country can muddle through the next 3-4 years without a major crisis it can’t handle.

how to cut a mango

I need a break from doom and gloom, so why not how to cut a mango? This is a useful life skill, and not one this typical white bread mainstream American learned growing up. I also like that she is showing the Asian mangos (which I see marketed as “champagne” mangos) rather than the Mexican ones we more typically see in the US. These can be prohibitively expensive in your typical chain grocery store, if you see them at all. My guess is they don’t ship as well and they just aren’t as pretty to look at on the outside. The place to look for them is an Asian grocery if your city has one. Look for a big box that at first glance might contain rotten potatoes, and you will be on the right track.

By the way, I looked it up and the plural of mango is…either mangos or mangoes. Mangoes is a bit more popular, but both are acceptable.

And lastly a travel tip. If you ever find yourself traveling in a tropical country and want to make small talk, don’t bother about the weather. It’s hot. Everybody knows it’s hot, it’s always hot and it’s always going to be hot. But people generally love to talk about tropical fruit, so it’s a good ice breaker. And nobody ever got disappeared by the local gestapo for talking about fruit, that I know of. Well, bananas and coconuts, maybe…

the US “R&D ecosystem”

This article from “chinatalk.media” (which I know nothing about) explains how the US R&D pipeline has always been a partnership between universities, the private sector (including, in some cases, closely regulated monopolies like Bell Labs), and the government. It has been the envy of the world and emulated by others, including by China. Basically, the federal government funds basic research through universities that there is not a clear market for yet. In some cases, it creates a market through its procurement ability which incentivizes the private sector to take the risk of taking nascent scientific breakthroughs from the universities and bring them to market.

To better understand today’s landscape, we need to trace our steps back about 70 years and examine how the American research ecosystem was conceptualized. The original model positioned universities to conduct curiosity-driven research funded by the federal government, while American industry focused on transforming that research into applications.

There were certain industrial monopolies created by the government that also conducted basic research, which Alex can address more comprehensively. However, the overwhelming majority of basic research happened in academia — universities created as land-grant institutions or those existing before the war. This system served us remarkably well, as basic research developments from the 1950s, 60s, and 70s bore fruit 10, 20, 30, or 40 years later. The nature of basic research doesn’t necessarily have an immediate application, but applications may emerge years down the line.

Agencies like the National Institutes of Health fund more applied research on medicines and can point to tangible outcomes — specific drugs developed with NIH funding. The NSF, conversely, funds basic research that may not demonstrate tangible benefits for decades, as happened with neural networks.

What madman claiming to love our country would try to break this? He would have to be either extremely ignorant or a traitor to our country.

more on India-Pakistan water sharing

I will refrain from commenting on fast-moving current events in the India-Pakistan conflict. But here is a bit more on the water situation bubbling (sorry) under the surface (sorry again).

From an opinion piece by Brahma Chellany (“Professor Emeritus of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including Water: Asia’s New Battleground (Georgetown University Press, 2011), for which he won the 2012 Asia Society Bernard Schwartz Book Award.”)

“But this time, Modi has offered a calibrated and impactful response, pausing the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), the world’s most-generous water-sharing pact, which grants downstream Pakistan access to over 80% of the Indus Basin waters. Brokered in 1960 by the World Bank, the IWT has long been hailed as a model of cross-border cooperation – one that China has not emulated. (Though its 1951 annexation of the water-rich Tibetan Plateau gave it control over the headwaters of Asia’s major rivers, China has refused to enter into a water-sharing treaty with any of its 18 downstream neighbors.)” …

Last year, when India formally sought to update the IWT – to account for unanticipated factors like climate change, groundwater depletion, and population growth – Pakistan refused to negotiate. [Note this is clearly an opinion and not an objective discussion, I am sharing as an example of how someone sympathizing with the Indian side might view the issue.]

Now a discussion of some science from indianexpress.com (which I have no past experience or inside information about, but it passes my surface credibility instincts):

Kulkarni said studies carried out by him and his colleagues have shown that the glaciers feeding the Ravi, Sutlej and Beas rivers, located at a lower altitude, are retreating at a faster rate in comparison to the glaciers in Pakistan, located at high altitudes in the Karakoram range. As a result, the amount of glacial meltwater is projected to be much higher than the previous decades till the middle of the century, which would be followed by a significant reduction in water availability, he said.

“The glaciers located on the eastern side are located at a relatively lower altitude, and they are losing mass at a higher rate, thus retreating faster. As you go higher, in the Karakoram mountain ranges, glaciers are not losing mass, they are relatively stable. In the scientific community, it is called the Karakoram anomaly,” said Kulkarni, a scientist at the Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru…

Under the IWT, signed in September 1960, all waters of the Indus basin’s eastern rivers — Satluj, Beas and Ravi — are available to India for unrestricted use. Pakistan has rights over the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — and being upstream of its neighbour, it can only use waters of these rivers for non-consumptive use, such as to produce hydropower, navigation, flood protection and control, and fishing.

So the glaciers in the headwaters controlled by India have more flow currently because the glaciers there are melting faster, but there is less water stored there than in the headwaters controlled by Pakistan, and that would mean less flow in the future. Somewhat counter-intuitive. It also never occurred to me that China’s occupation of Tibet could be at least partly about controlling Himalayan headwaters. It’s hard to believe any of these countries and their politicians are making policy decisions based on long-term scientific forecasting and thinking. But maybe they are actually more rational and scientifically oriented than at least our current cohort of irrational and scientifically illiterate U.S. politicians.

from the somewhat fun, scientifically illiterate movie 2012, in which the Himalayas are flooded by more water than exists on Earth

Pakistan Nuclear Policy

An interesting snippet on Pakistan’s nuclear policy (from indianpunchline.com, which I have no prior experience with):

Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine allows for first strike if the nation’s survival is deemed to be under thereat. Three thresholds have been spelt out: denial of water flow into Pakistan (under the Indus Waters Treaty); any naval blockade; and foreign occupation of Pakistani territory. 

India has unilaterally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty. I have however seen articles arguing that they do not have the technical ability to deny water flow on a significant scale. Still, even if this is all just talk at the moment, it is a step down a dangerous path for the region and the world.

Being fairly ignorant of geography, I had to review how much coastline Pakistan actually has. And it does in fact have a substantial coastline on the Arabian Sea/Indian Ocean, with a Karachi as a major coastal city.

My Keys to Happiness in the Moment

I’ve been thinking about this, whether there is any recipe for my personal happiness in the moment. Happiness in the moment is something different from overall life satisfaction, maybe a topic for another day. Anyway, here is what I have come up with.

  1. Sleep. Enough sleep, and quality sleep. I’ve always had some trouble falling asleep and staying asleep, and I don’t have all the answers. Keeping a set routine most of the time, including weekends, helps. Winding down for an hour or so before bed helps (not always under my control with the life of a working parent). Podcasts and audio books can help for those nights when the mind just doesn’t want to settle down. A quiet, dark, cool bedroom and comfortable bed help (again, not always under my control, although I have taken to sleeping with earplugs at times.)
  2. Coffee. Surprising to see this at #2? For me it’s the only 100% reliable antidepressant out there. I often wake up feeling like the world is not such a nice place, and 30-60 minutes after I have my coffee, it feels like a much nicer place. More coffee is not better, of course. 1-2 cups, at about the same time each day, works for me.
  3. Exercise. Anything including stretching or a walk can provide a temporary mood pickup, but consistent exercise several days in a row really seems to improve my mood. It doesn’t have to be long – maybe 20-30 minutes – but it does have to involve some heart pumping, heavy breathing, sweat and/or sore muscles to maximize this effect for me. Part of the effect of exercise may be that it reinforces good sleep.
  4. Down time. I think the introvert/extrovert framework is a useful way to think here. For extroverts, spending time with friends and family may count as down time. For me, it does not. I love my friends and family, and I don’t want to live my life in solitary confinement, but for me some alone time is non-negotiable to feel my best. Reading, thinking, ideally some time in nature or at least outdoors. Ideally it would be at least an hour a day, a day a week, and a weekend each month. The latter two have been impossible in middle aged working professional family life, but I grab the alone hours and moments where I can. I know however that my mental health is never what it could be if I could slow down and have more time to myself. Perhaps if I live long enough to retire…but it’s sad to look forward to the later stages of your life. Such is the supposedly modern world we have created for ourselves.

That’s it! There are many other things that might help at the margins. Good nutrition certainly. Meditation. Power naps. I do not oppose the light recreational use of alcohol and possibly other substances, in particular to enhance that down time that is in such short supply. And of course professional help is out there and worth trying for many people. I’m sure I could come up with a long list here. But none help that much without nailing the top 4.

Finally, it helps me to think of high and low moods as being like the weather. High and low moods will come and go. Sometimes there is no obvious reason for them. You can’t predict them with certainty, and you can’t expect to control them all the time even if you do everything perfectly. Following the “Top 4” things above improves the odds considerably I think, but there will still be bad days and occasionally weeks. So on those emotional “rainy days”, it is okay to slow down a bit and just remind yourself that the bad weather will pass.

Roundabouts

Roundabouts are not really cutting edge, but they are new to many of us in the slow-on-the-uptake Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Here’s a video on what you are supposed to do.

Youtube

One thing drivers are NEVER supposed to do is pass a bicyclist in the lane, in a roundabout or anywhere else. I observe that most drivers and bicyclists are confused about this. Not only do bicyclists often hug the right edge of the lane, drivers tend to speed up as they pass them, which is going to be deadly if anything unexpected happens. Under our state law, cars have to give bikes 4 feet of space. Lanes are around 12 feet wide, so this means a car centered in the lane cannot physically pass a bike legally. Police do not enforce this rule, and signs stating it are very rare. We occasionally see the “BIKES MAY USE FULL LANE” sign, but a better sign, which I have seen in other states, adds “CHANGE LANES TO PASS”. Separated, protected lanes for low-momentum zero emissions vehicles with their own signals at intersections would be the superior, most modern way to go, of course.

heart attacks in young people linked to Covid-19 (era drug abuse)

At least one cardiologist thinks the documented increase in heart attacks among younger people since Covid is due not to Covid infection itself, but due to abuse of Adderall and Ritalin that picked up around that time. Sleazy online doctors are writing these prescriptions apparently. It’s sort of a hidden, slow motion version of the opioid/fentanyl epidemic because stimulants don’t cause your heart to just stop beating, they just raise the risk that it will explode over time. By the way, I’ve been listening to Donald Trump Jr.’s podcast occasionally because it is a good gauge of MAGA propaganda. The first sponsor he mentioned last time I tuned in was a sleazy online pharmacy.

This also reminds me of the book Blitzed: Drugs in Nazi Germany which is about massive methamphetamine abuse by German soldiers and civilians at the time.

As I write this I have been popping Sudafed for a couple days to try to keep a head cold from settling into my chest. It’s kind of a nice feeling. But I only bought 24 of them and when they are gone, they are gone.

Amazon

No, I’m not an Amazon associate. I’ve just noticed that posts with pictures and videos get more attention.