Category Archives: Web Article Review

planning theory

This article in the Journal of Planning Education and Research (free for the month of February only apparently) is a nice review of planning theory. It amazes me that the profession of planning seems to be so unsure of itself, and yet has so many important theories and tools to offer to other disciplines. There is a lot of planning going on outside the small field of academically trained urban and regional planning. I like to think of planning as similar to mathematics – it’s a profession for a few, but its theories and tools are used every day by professionals across many fields. Many of us can do moderately complex math by ourselves, and we know we can call on the mathematicians and statisticians for help with the really complex stuff. Similarly, a lot of professionals like engineers and economists are entrusted with the keys to the planning machine. But often, we do it badly because we are not well trained in the theory and tools of planning.

Almost all professionals – planners, engineers, and economists at a minimum – would benefit from better education in general systems theory – what the building blocks of systems are, how they interact with their boundaries, and how their behavior over time is driven by their structure and interaction with boundary conditions, and how they can be manipulated to achieve desired outcomes. Among the professions, engineers and economists probably have the best understanding of systems today, but we tend to define the system boundaries, and the range of desired outcomes that can be achieved, much too narrowly. That is one place planners can come in – facilitating the interaction between technocratic problem solving being done by engineers and economists with the larger socio-economic and environmental context.

What I call “technocratic problem solving” here is essentially what the planners call “rational-comprehensive” planning. In my view, it works very well for the elements of systems that we understand well (managing water resources, food production, and employment, for example). Where it has come under criticism (for example, the failed “urban renewal” programs in the U.S.), I believe the problem is not in the approach, but rather applying the approach to systems we do not understand well has given us a false sense of precision and a false confidence, which has led to failure. A hybrid approach that works very well, in my experience with water resource and environmental planning, is to apply the rational-comprehensive approach to the parts of the system we understand well, and then feed the results into a stakeholder or political process that can deal with the social aspects of the system we understand much less well. Planners can play the critical role in making this process reach a functional outcome. This is how I like to think of the planning profession – as the critical glue that can hold together a coalition of engineers, economists, bureaucrats, businesspeople, interest groups, and members of the public into a coherent whole that can set a direction for our society, then continue to guide it with incremental course adjustments as we go forward.

Google: self-driving taxis 2-5 years out

Is widespread commercialization of self-driving cars decades out? No, 2-5 years according to Google!

Google has made no secret of its ambitions to revolutionize transportation with autonomous vehicles. Chief Executive Officer Larry Page is said to be personally fascinated by the challenge of making cities operate more efficiently. The company recently said the driverless car technology in development within its Google X research lab is from two to five years from being ready for widespread use. At the Detroit auto show last month, Chris Urmson, the Google executive in charge of the project, articulated one possible scenario in which autonomous vehicles are patrolling neighborhoods to pick up and drop off passengers. “We’re thinking a lot about how in the long-term, this might become useful in people’s lives, and there are a lot of ways we can imagine this going,” Urmson said in a conference call with reporters on Jan. 14. “One is in the direction of the shared vehicle. The technology would be such that you can call up the vehicle and tell it where to go and then have it take you there…”

Travis Kalanick, Uber’s CEO, has publicly discussed what he sees as the inevitability of autonomous taxis, saying they could offer cheaper rides and a true alternative to vehicle ownership. “The Uber experience is expensive because it’s not just the car but the other dude in the car,” he said at a technology conference in 2014, referring to the expense of paying human drivers. “When there’s no other dude in the car, the cost [of taking an Uber] gets cheaper than owning a vehicle.”

One group of players you never hear mentioned in these articles…the Detroit car companies. Remember, they would have gone extinct in the 2007-8 financial crisis if the government hadn’t bailed them out. Are they completely missing out on the autonomous vehicle and ride-sharing trends now, instead picturing the millennials and their children living in the exurbs with two cars in every garage? If so, they may be headed for short-term extinction. I’m also waiting to hear more about autonomous trucks and buses – they have to be coming.

the “new Pliocene”

New evidence from fossil cores supports the idea that more greenhouse gases means warmer temperatures in a more or less linear way.

During the Pliocene, the Earth’s temperature was often several degrees higher than in pre-industrial times, while atmospheric CO2 levels were around 350-450 parts per million (ppm), similar to the levels reached in the past few years (400 ppm).

By studying the relationship between CO2 levels and climate change during a warm period in the Earth’s history, the scientists have been able to estimate how the climate will respond to increasing levels of CO2, a parameter known as climate sensitivity.

The findings suggest that climate sensitivity was similar in a warmer world to other times – allaying concerns that warming could produce positive feedbacks that would accelerate warming above that expected from modelling studies.

I wouldn’t call this great news, but it does suggest we will have a chance to adjust to gradual change, rather than being blind-sided by some sudden catastrophic change.

Robert Reich on the sharing economy

Robert Reich is not a big fan of the sharing economy.

The euphemism is the “share” economy. A more accurate term would be the “share-the-scraps” economy.

New software technologies are allowing almost any job to be divided up into discrete tasks that can be parceled out to workers when they’re needed, with pay determined by demand for that particular job at that particular moment.

Customers and workers are matched online. Workers are rated on quality and reliability.

The big money goes to the corporations that own the software. The scraps go to the on-demand workers.

His solution is unionization and collective bargaining. I am not against those things – in the short term, how you divide up earnings between owners and workers is a zero-sum question. In the longer term though, you want to grow those earnings at the same time you are dividing them up in some fair way. Unionization might resist the underlying economic and technological forces for a time, but it can’t change them. Remember the “ownership society”? If we aren’t going to give workers real equal bargaining power compared to their corporate employers, a possible alternative is broader ownership of those corporations. We could use inheritance and gift taxes to give every baby an IRA with $10,000 in stock the day they are born, just to throw out a random idea. That would grow, and then later in life, people could choose to either invest that money in education and skills for the jobs that do exist, or they could just choose to work fewer hours than earlier generations did.

mining sewage for gold

Japanese sewer authorities are now profitably mining sewage for gold.

A sewage treatment facility in central Japan has recorded a higher gold yield from sludge than can be found at some of the world’s best mines. An official in Nagano prefecture, northwest of Tokyo, said the high percentage of gold found at the Suwa facility was probably due to the large number of precision equipment manufacturers in the vicinity that use the yellow metal. The facility recently recorded finding 1,890 grammes of gold per tonne of ash from incinerated sludge.

how to not pay for cable

There are lots of ways to watch TV now without paying for cable. Why include this on a blog about innovation? Well, I’m trying to figure out how Comcast is building a second skyscraper in Philadelphia if consumers really hate paying them for TV so much and there is a ton of disruptive innovation going on that would seemingly threaten their business model. The answer must be that big “cable” companies have a lot more going on besides just charging exorbitant rates for TV. I am a Comcast customer by the way, because they are the best broadband option on my street at the moment, and of course I can’t live without that. They charge a lot for it, but then they throw in basic cable and HBO Go for just a little bit more, so they got me. I’m still actively shopping for other options though so don’t get too complacent, Comcast.

12-fold increase in U.S. solar capacity since 2008

This article is called Nothing Can Stop the US Solar Industry Juggernaut Now. A couple quotes:

The US solar industry has engineered a 1200% increase in utility-scale capacity since 2008, according to a new blog post from the Energy Department. When you factor in the explosive rate of growth in small-scale solar, it’s clear that the current hiccup in the price of oil is not going to stop solar energy from advancing in the US market.

The only question now is how quickly the US solar industry can meet the growth in demand, and for that we turn to a pair of newly announced SunShot programs designed to help the US solar industry churn out — and install — more product than ever before…

If you’re not familiar with the Obama Administration’s 2011 SunShot initiative, that would be a 10-year plan to bring the cost of solar energy down to parity with fossil fuels.

Logically speaking, solar energy just has to be a big part of the sustainability solution. The cynic in me would say if you express an increase from a very small number in percentage terms, it may sound impressive, but it doesn’t mean much. I am a little disappointed if grid parity is really still 10 years out. I really thought we were closer than that. I will believe we are close when I walk out of my house and see it all around me, and/or when my electric bill tells me it is mostly or entirely solar. By the way, my house is in the United States, but I am lucky enough to be on vacation in Southeast Asia at the moment, and I don’t see it here either. What I see here is living standards and health conditions close to what we take for granted in the west (my current mild stomach trouble not withstanding), but it is very clear that relatively cheap, abundant oil, gas, and coal make it possible.

more on the western U.S. drought

I knew about low rainfall and depleted groundwater in California, loss of snowpack in Colorado, and the not-at-all-surprising lack of water in Las Vegas. I didn’t know that Oregon is in the early stages of beginning to feel the drought. From Wired:

Snow-starvation might seem like a PR tactic invented by Oregonians to dissuade out-of-staters keen on moving in, but it’s a real problem. Though known for rain, most of the state relies on snowpack to sate its thirst throughout the year. But Oregon’s last three winters have been too warm, and the much of the expected snow has instead fallen as rain, devastating more than just the state’s ski industry. (To be fair to Oregonians, a busted ski season is a huge bummer.) Without melting snow, the rivers are coming up short, and many farmers are having to rely on groundwater. But even in soggy Oregon, there isn’t always enough to go around.”The way water is portioned out in the American west is that if you got here first you get to use it first,” says Kathie Dello, a climate researcher at Oregon State University. When there’s a shortage, then farmers with so-called “junior rights” get their water use cut off early in the season. This has led some farmers to look south for clues about what their future might be like.

All this comes to a head because Oregon is currently the peak influx of any state in the nation. “The biggest fear of most Oregonians that Californians are going to flood the state,” says Dello. (Not a water-flood; a people-flood.) But the fear of being bred out by Golden State refugees might soon be supplanted by an even worse threat: being invaded by California’s drying climate.

technologies to watch

What are the big technologies to watch going forward? Everybody has an opinion, so here are just a few.

Dominic Barton, global managing director of McKinsey & Company:

Fortunately, today’s private-sector labs are bursting with innovations that could spark major productivity-enhancing technological and operational improvements. Advanced materials like nanolaminates (edible lipids) can, when sprayed on food, provide protection from air or moisture and reduce spoilage. Carbon-fiber composites are making cars and airplanes both more resistant and lighter, reducing their fuel consumption. And the “Internet of things” will rationalize production processes by detecting potential failures early, boost crop yields by measuring the moisture of fields, and dramatically reduce the cost of remotely monitoring patients’ health.

Just a little further out on the productivity frontier are commercially viable self-driving cars and trucks. Likewise, synthetic biology will be possible before too long, with scientists using the huge amount of increasingly available and inexpensive genetic data to design DNA from scratch – a practice that has applications in medicine, agriculture, and even biofuel production.

Wait a second… “nanolaminates (edible lipids) can, when sprayed on food, provide protection from air or moisture and reduce spoilage”…where have we heard something like this before?

Susan Hockfield, President Emerita and Professor of Neuroscience at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology:

An accelerating convergence of the biological, physical, and engineering sciences promises a stunning array of new technological solutions. Imagine a coal-fueled power plant that emits only water and clean air. Inside the plant, designer yeast cells transform the carbon dioxide released during the coal’s combustion into raw materials for floor tiles and other construction supplies.

Or imagine a simple and inexpensive urine test that can diagnose cancer, eliminating the need for a surgical biopsy. And, when cancer treatment is needed, its toxic punch hits cancer cells selectively, with far fewer damaging side effects.

Or imagine a future with plentiful food and fuel crops. Through improved seed stocks and more efficient water management, we can have crops that require less water, grow at higher density, and thrive in wider temperature ranges. And data-driven agriculture supply chains will move them more effectively to the market. These advances will enable us to feed and provide power – at a lower economic and environmental cost – to the anticipated 2050 population of nine billion people.

Guy Ryder, Director-General of the International Labor Organization:

In the midst of a major employment crisis, technology continues to reduce the labor needed for mass production, while the automation of routine legal and accounting tasks is hollowing out that sector of the job market as well. The science of robotics is revolutionizing manufacturing; every year, an additional 200,000 industrial robots come into use. In 2015, the total is expected to reach 1.5 million. Adapting the labor market to a world of increasingly automated workplaces will be one of the defining challenges of our era.

Finally, the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks report 2015:

The pace of technological change is faster than ever. Disciplines such as synthetic biology and artificial intelligence are creating new fundamental capabilities, which offer tremendous potential for solving the world’s most pressing problems. At the same time, they present hard-to-foresee risks. Oversight mechanisms need to more effectively balance likely benefits and commercial demands with a deeper consideration of ethical questions and medium to long-term risks – ranging from economic to environmental and societal.

robot library of the future

This is an interesting article by Philadelphia Inquirer critic Inga Saffron about the new library at Temple University, which is going to use robots to retrieve books. This allows the books to be stored in a very small space, and the rest of the building to be used for technology, meeting rooms, collaborative work spaces, and social spaces. This is based on warehouse technology used by Amazon and others, and has already been implemented at the North Carolina State University library.

Joe Lucia, Temple’s dean of libraries, believes these buildings are the most inclusive spaces at a university and serve as an “academic Switzerland.” An engineering student may never wander into the humanities building, he explained, but all students need to consult a library’s holdings. The library’s location on the new central quad will cement its place as Temple’s community center. Besides the glass reading room, the building will be packed with study rooms, seminar rooms, digital work spaces, as well as a ground floor café-and-study area that will be open 24 hours.

The wealth of work spaces is made possible by the automated book-retrieval system. The new library will be about 200,000 square feet, roughly the same as the existing Paley Library, built in 1966 by Nolen-Swinburne. (It will probably be retrofitted for classrooms.) But because the automated system allows the new library to store books in tightly packed trays, storage will take up just 10,000 square feet. The ratio is almost the reverse at Paley, which has open stacks. Because the books will be protected in their own concrete room, the new library can have many more windows. It is sad that the one place where windows are scarce is on the side facing Liacouras walk. Long blank walls could be off-putting on such a pedestrian stretch, and Temple officials say they are exploring some design changes.

One of the good things about the automatic book-retrieving system is that it’s already been tested at Snohetta projects such as the Hunt Library at North Carolina State University in Raleigh. The system delivers the books within five minutes, and it’s become such an attraction that students are known to take selfies with the robot.

This also makes me think about the future of urban retail. Who will need big box stores with shelves packed full of duplicate items? Instead you can have showrooms with just one of each item, or even holograms, for people who want an up-close look at an item they have already seen on the internet at home. The actual items to be purchased can be stored very compactly in the back, basement, or second floor of the store, and retrieved in minutes by a robot. For that matter, why would you want to carry a bulky item home if it can be delivered to your door within a few hours. In that case, it doesn’t matter if the warehouse is down the street, on the edge of town, or out by the airport or rail station or factory that actually makes the items. Each retailer doesn’t need to operate its own warehouse and delivery system. If 3D-printing technology really comes into its own, this system would get even more interesting.