Category Archives: Web Article Review

so what’s new with Tesla?

Following up on my electric vehicle discussion lately, here is an article from TheWeek on Tesla. Basically, other companies have entered the field and are catching up on the electric vehicle technology itself, causing prices to drop and Tesla’s profit margin to drop along with it. Tesla’s plan has been to stay one step ahead with the shift to self-driving vehicles, particularly taxis, and this is coming along a bit slower than imagined. Their battery division also doing well.

I’m not a huge fan of Elon Musk himself, but I have always felt that he is playing by the rules of market competition and innovation, rather than trying to buy political influence, suppress competition, and fleece consumers/taxpayers as so many of our “capitalist” industries are doing these days.

August 1 U.S. election check-in!

Well, we’ve gone from an almost unspeakably boring election to a pretty exciting one in just over a month. We had the fateful Biden-Trump debate on June 27, the Trump assassination attempt on July 13, Biden’s announcement that he was dropping out of the race on July 21, and now the Democratic Party seemingly selecting Kamala Harris as its candidate.

Polls are a little crazy. 538 does not seem to be producing its typical weighted polling averages at this point, while Nate Silver’s substack is now posting some weighted polling averages for public consumption. Real Clear Politics unweighted polling averages are…there. One question is whether to include any polls from before July 21 in the averages. I am not going to do any math though, and just report the averages as these two sites are showing them on August 1 in my local time (11 hours ahead of EDT).

STATE2020 RESULT538 (TRUMP/BIDEN,
July 1)
Silver Bulletin (August 1)RCP (August 1)
ArizonaBiden +0.4%Trump +4.8%Trump +2.7%Trump +4.2%
GeorgiaBiden +0.3%Trump +6.3%Trump +2.2%Trump +3.6%
WisconsinBiden +0.6%Trump +0.8%Harris +0.4%Trump +0.2%
North CarolinaTrump +1.3%Trump +7.3%Trump +2.2%Trump +5.5%
PennsylvaniaBiden +1.2%Trump +2.0%Trump +0.2%Trump +2.7%
MichiganBiden +2.8%Trump +1.8%Harris +2.6%Harris +2.0%
NevadaBiden +2.4%Trump +3.8%Trump +2.2%Trump +4.0%

I tend to trust the Nate Silver numbers here, since they are weighted for recency and things have changed very recently. Based on his numbers, the electoral college as it stands today would be Trump 287, Harris 251. So despite Harris’s “momentum”, which the media is playing up because they want us to watch commercials, Trump still has it at this very moment. On the other hand, Pennsylvania is all but tied, and if it goes for Harris the electoral college would be Harris 270, Trump 268.

The momentum is clearly there – there has been a decisive shift toward Harris across the board compared to where Biden was a month ago. On the other hand, she is slightly underperforming Biden 2020 across the board. To me, Harris is a fairly bland center-right Democrat with less baggage than 2024 Biden or 2016 Hillary, so this all makes some sense to me. Being a mixed-race stepmother doesn’t really change my personal impression of her political leadership skills one way or the other, but perhaps it will affect turnout. For what it’s worth Polymarket gives a 55% chance of Trump winning and a 44% chance of Harris winning. Which seems consistent. Predictit seems to be blocked as an online gambling site in the jurisdiction I currently find myself in.

So, maybe more crazy things will happen, or maybe it will come down to economic trends and turnout, like it usually does.

those lagging electric vehicle sales

Since I happen to be in Thailand, here are a couple excerpts from an article about lower than expected electric vehicle sales in Thailand. I am not trying to pick on Thailand or even comment on Thai government policy, but merely give a local example of what seems to be a global trend.

Thailand on Friday signalled it was hedging its bets over its previous all-out commitment to EV cars. Instead, in a new policy announcement, the kingdom is focusing on hybrid vehicle production or HEVs…

…there is a growing realisation that the EV industry, which is capital-intensive and does not support the country’s critical automotive parts industry, has been a mixed blessing.

“We are experiencing an EV oversupply as plenty of EVs imported from China over the past two years inventories,” he explained. At the same time, he confirmed that there are presently 490,000 unsold EV cars in storage. That is 63% of all vehicles produced in Thailand over the last 12 months. In the meantime, EV vehicle sales remain a relatively small percentage of overall car sales in the kingdom. In June, vehicles for the domestic market produced in Thailand were only 34,522 units. A huge drop of 43.08%. This is a catastrophic outcome by all accounts.

Anecdotally, just from moving about the country a bit, I don’t see charging infrastructure. And this echoes what I see in (my small corner of) the United States. We haven’t built the infrastructure to support electric vehicles, and we haven’t made the policy changes like adjustments to the gas tax which funds much of our highway maintenance. So we blame problems caused by a lack of planning and implementation on the technology itself.

But there is something else here. There are winners and losers with electric vehicles. The winners are all of us and our children’s lungs, plus our water and air. But these are diffuse benefits, and politically speaking it is concentrated interests that move the political system. Big business interests like the oil and automotive industries. The reference to “car parts” is telling here. Electric vehicles are superior because they have fewer complex parts and require less maintenance and service. Just like shutting down any sprawling, inefficient, polluting Soviet industry, what is good for society means some loss of jobs and profits for a minority, and that minority has some political clout. So when we hear that electric vehicles are “not catching on”, we can ask how much of this is propaganda driven by big business interests who will lose money if they do catch on.

Nonetheless, I think the hype bubble may have burst but the technology is here and here to stay. It may take a decade or two to really take over rather than exploding onto the scene the way some expected.

the “election trifecta”

This Freakonomics podcast describes an “election trifecta” three ideas to greatly improve US elections.

  1. Non-partisan, single ballot primaries, with the top four vote getters moving on to the general election
  2. ranked-choice voting in the general election
  3. non-partisan redistricting

This all sounds pretty good. The two major parties are not producing good candidates for leadership of our country, and they are preventing more talented potential leaders from competing.

I am a registered Democrat in a state with closed primaries, and I wrote in Bernie Sanders in the primary. I would have voted for Joe Biden in the general, but then again I would have voted and will vote for anyone who is not a serial rapist, convicted felon, and traitor who led a violent attack on the United States Congress.

what’s new with flying taxis

These things are basically just helicopters. What makes them new and different is (1) they are electric, (2) at least some are intended to be autonomous (no pilot), and (3) at least some models (like the “Wisk” from Boeing) are planned for release in the next few years.

Yes, they will crash at some point and a few people will die and it will be a huge deal, and thousands of children will probably be killed on that same day by cars, trucks, and motorcycles, and it will barely be mentioned.

https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2022/october/03/wisk-unveils-autonomous-air-taxi

what’s new with a universal flu vaccine

This article in technologynetworks.com (which is new to me) says a universal flu vaccine could be here within five years.

Researchers reported that six of 11 nonhuman primates inoculated against the virus that circulated a century ago — the 1918 flu — survived exposure to one of the deadliest viruses in the world today, H5N1. In contrast, a control group of six unvaccinated nonhuman primates exposed to the H5N1 virus succumbed to the disease.

Sacha said he believes the platform “absolutely” could be useful against other mutating viruses, including SARS-CoV-2…

This approach harnesses a vaccine platform previously developed by scientists at OHSU to fight HIV and tuberculosis, and, in fact, is already being used in a clinical trial against HIV.

I feel sorry for the 11 monkeys (chimps?) who gave their lives for this research. But getting rid of flu, Covid, HIV and tuberculosis certainly sounds pretty good. I’m a little confused about why H5N1 is so lethal in these monkeys – is this the same virus causing mild symptoms and no deaths (so far) in cows and a few humans?

New York to Boston in 100 minutes?

I’ve taken Amtrak from New York to Boston. It takes about four hours, and is more or less the best the United States has to offer when it comes to passenger rail connecting major population centers. I live in Philadelphia, which along with New York and Boston, built some of the world’s first subway systems very early in the 20th century (trivia answer: even earlier subways were London, which people might guess, and Budapest, which they might not.) Before World War II, Philadelphia had an ambitious plan on paper to build out its subway system. It never happened – today, we have two dirty, old, and unreliable subway lines connecting a fraction of our city, and we are lucky to have what we have compared to most U.S. cities. I also lived in Singapore from 2010-2013. Singapore is not a utopia in every way, despite what their highly effective government propaganda might suggest, but in terms of public infrastructure and particularly transportation infrastructure, it was astonishing at the time. Well, no longer. After visiting Singapore this week for the first time since I left in 2013, it has gone from astonishing to science fiction. They have nearly doubled the size of their system in the time since I left. But what gave me this sense of science fiction is simply a decade of progress in another part of the world, while the United States has been more or less standing still. We are simply not an advanced country in comparison, and the gap is growing.

What do I think Singapore’s secret is? Not some secret high-tech technology. They nurture domestic industry to some extent, while purposely exposing them to competition from foreign competitors. When I was here as an engineering consultant a decade ago, the subway lines under construction were being managed by a German firm and a South Korean firm, which were in turn managed by the state transit agency, the Land Transportation Authority. The other secret is low-cost labor from developing countries. The Singapore-born population is shrinking, so they focus on educating their population for high value-added careers and allow in motivated and willing migrant workers to do the lower-tech stuff. This entails long hours of hard work in the tropical sun, but in Singapore at least labor and environmental standards are pretty reasonable (you can compare their construction site accident data to ours for example and it is very favorable to them, unless you believe there is some cover up. Middle Eastern countries may be a different story however.)

So the moral of the story here is that coddling inefficient domestic U.S. firms and high-cost U.S. labor to build our infrastructure is going to limit what we can accomplish. The winners will be some subset of domestic firms and workers, while the losers are everyone and the entire economy that would benefit from frictionless infrastructure. In a rational world, we might let in efficient foreign firms and low-cost foreign workers, boost our economy, institute a value-added tax, and use the proceeds to education our next generation and anyone in this generation left behind because we brought in the foreign workers. But our politics are clearly not headed in this direction.

Interestingly, the American Society of Civil Engineers has a new video called “Cities of the Future”, which largely showcases Singapore.

wacky poll averages

Nate Silver has his own blog out now, the Silver Bulletin (I assume he checked to make sure this is not already an AARP newsletter). Polling averages are free to look at, but you have to pay if you want to see his election prediction model. Just looking at Pennsylvania, he has Trump at +3.1% today (I’m writing on Saturday, July 13, 2024), while Nate Silver left-behind 538/ABC has us at Trump +2.9%. The Real Clear Politics straight-up average is Trump +5.3%. So this illustrates some uncertainty but it is clear to me at least that Biden is toast. Or to quote the headline in the Telegraph, “Biden looks finished – there’s surely no coming back from this…he just made America look like an international joke”.

He is obviously having trouble accessing words on command. I just don’t believe though that he is so far gone he can’t make the political calculation above. Or even if he can’t certainly the people around him can. We can dare to hope that the responsible adults are taking time to come up with a face-saving exit plan (“on the advice of my doctors…”) and to have a plan B in place before they announce said exit plan.

why the U.S. can’t have nice things, like health insurance

According to this article in Vox, The United Nations has a goal of achieving universal health coverage in all countries by 2030. I doubt they were really thinking of the United States when they came up with that, but here we are.

I tend to blame the the situation on lobbying by the insurance industry, because they see public health insurance as an existential threat, and in this country of legalized corruption, big business gets to write our laws in its favor. I knew the American Medical Association, the special interest lobby for doctors, played a role, but I didn’t realize it was as soaked in disinformation and propaganda as this article makes it sound.

The AMA-WB campaign had two key components. First, they used mass advertising to associate NHI with socialism, while the private (or voluntary) insurance option was described as the “American Way”. These advertising efforts of the AMA were complemented by tie-in advertising from other industries fearing a return to war-time price controls. In addition, the strategy called on AMA doctors to discuss private health insurance with their patients and to distribute pamphlets echoing the individualistic advertising message (see Figure 1). Through local and state medical organizations, physicians looking to defray medical costs had organised their own insurance product, which came to be known as Blue Shield, and they were eager for enrolees. All told, approximately $250 million (in current terms) was spent to sway voters, an unprecedented amount for the time. Doctors were also instructed to use their prestige to urge local civic organisations to pass resolutions against national health insurance.

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/why-us-doesnt-have-national-health-insurance-political-role-ama

“WB” is a public relations, aka propaganda firm.

I still like to think that individually, most doctors chose the field because they care about human beings. But somehow, as an organized group, they can add up to something evil. And before I cast the first stone, yes I am also thinking about my own profession of engineering (what could be more wholesome than public infrastructure and public health – yes, water treatment probably saves more lives than all the world’s medicine, but that’s a digression) and our unholy alliance with the highway/auto/sprawl industry.

This article also takes aim at unions. By its telling, they wanted to saddle the private sector with the cost of the health care system so they had something to negotiate on behalf of their members (and therefore get people to want to be members). This is also twisted and evil.

What puzzles me a bit is that if big business is really so powerful, why don’t they want to be freed from the burden of providing health insurance? It would seem only to benefit a fairly narrow slice of the finance industry. But it appears that this slice, along with the organized lobbies of doctors and unions, has been powerful enough to keep the American public from having a real health care system for over half a century now.