Category Archives: Web Article Review

Project 2025, part 2

Okay, continuing to look at this thing. So far, to summarize, it is a Christian nationalist agenda and a military-industrial agenda.

Continuing with the “Department of State” section, which I will say is the most logical and coherent chapter I have read so far.

  • They want to break up the Department of Homeland Security. But basically, just keep everything immigration-related as a cabinet-level department and scatter the remaining bits and pieces to other agencies. One of those bits and pieces is FEMA, which it sounds like they want to severely curtail financially, including the National Flood Insurance Program. [By some accounts, it was George W. Bush’s creation of DHS after 9/11 that broke FEMA and left it unprepared for Hurricane Katrina. Do we think disaster response and flood insurance will be less important going forward than it has been over the past 20 years or so, given that we are about to lose our coastal population centers? We probably will need a national fire insurance program at some point as private insurers pull out of that business as they did flood insurance decades ago. Someday that big earthquake is coming for us too. And let’s hope we are done with terrorist attacks for the foreseeable future, both foreign and domestic, but of course why would be be. And who is going to deal with pandemics and bioweapons, the CDC? Well, I assume the document just hasn’t gotten to them yet.]
  • They want to privatize TSA. Airport security was private on September 11, 2001, as I recall.
  • “Re-hemisphering manufacturing and industry”. In other words, make cheap stuff for American store shelves in Central and South America rather than Asia. Actually an interesting idea as it potentially takes away some immigration pressure while potentially helping people in those countries (and wealthy, powerful corporations and gangsters in those countries and the U.S., of course).
  • Just keep beating up on Iran. [No, the government of Iran is not well-intentioned or blameless toward the United States. I just think there is a strong stench of propaganda any time they are mentioned and I am skeptical that they are the criminal mastermind bogeymen behind everything bad happening in the greater middle east.]
  • “The manifest failure and corruption of the World Health Organization (WHO) during the COVID-19 pandemic is an example of the danger that international organizations pose to U.S. citizens and interests.” [What? I missed this completely. The pandemic the United States probably accidentally caused?]
  • Participating in the United Nations and other international organizations is only a means to achieve U.S. interests.

USAID

  • Basically, cancel anything climate change related and double down on fossil fuels throughout the developing world.
  • And some more homophobia and Christian Nationalism thrown in here.

Project 2025

We’re hearing, at least through media sources one might consider somewhat left-leaning, that “Project 2025” from the Heritage Foundation is an open plan for a fascist takeover of the United States following the example of Mussolini or even Hitler. Both those leaders mobilized street thugs, neutralized the legislative and judicial branches, and co-opted big business almost entirely. They also brought state/provincial and local police forces completely under their central control. Is Trump or any American leader even remotely capable of herding the cats that make up our decentralized, fragmented, and largely dysfunctional government? I’m a little skeptical, so let’s take a look at what’s actually in the document.

Keep in mind, the Republican Party did not even manage to pull together a written party platform in 2020. It was literally the party of no ideas. And that, in fact, does sound like Mussolini, who had no real concrete or coherent policy proposals, and ruled more on charisma, machismo and promises to Make the Roman Empire Great Again. And from what I understand, he was far better at campaigning than actually governing. Hitler, evil as he was, certainly put together a highly functional administrative state at least for a few years. And right off the bat, this document makes a “promise” right in the introduction (pp. 35-36) to decentralize power and dismantle the administrative state.

First of all, the actual document on the website is called “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise” and then further down the page, “Project 2025: Presidential Transition Project”. Each chapter of this thing is written by a different “conservative scholar” covers a different part of the executive branch. So at this point, I have to say it seems totally normal for the leader of the executive branch to have a plan for who he (or she – I’ll just do the pronoun thing once) wants in each box of his org chart and to have some idea of what he would like each person to do once they are there. So I’ve skimmed through this 920 page document very quickly and tried to pull out a few highlights. It’s hard because although the document claims to make concrete policy recommendations, it doesn’t really. It mostly identifies key positions in the executive branch and recommends hiring people to fill them who agree with a very nebulous policy agenda of “protecting Christian families”.

  • It talks a lot about “families”. What it seems to mean by this is married heterosexual Christian couples with children.
  • It talks a lot about Christianity. It talks a lot about school choice. What it seems to mean by this is married heterosexual Christian couples teaching their own children to think like them. It actually states that “schools serve parents” and that parents are their children’s “primary educators”.
  • It talks about protecting Christian American families within our borders against foreigners. This seems to be the primary purpose of the military.
  • It talks about debt. What it seems to mean by this is eliminating most of the social safety net, possibly to lower taxes for Christian families. Of course, this does not apply to the cost of protecting Christian families from foreigners, which is worth any price.
  • But amid all this nebulous rhetoric, there are some concrete policy proposals that are just blatant giveaways to rich and powerful big business interests. A few are below (I can’t figure out how to make a simple indented list in this latest ridiculous version of WordPress.
  • “The President should eliminate the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), which is cochaired by the OSTP, OMB, and CEA, and by executive order should end the use of SCC analysis.” [because why would our children need food, or coastal population centers? This is evil.]
  • Double down on the war on drugs. This does not mean helping addicts, which is a “leftist woke” idea. It means ramping up violence on our streets, at and near our borders. And this should not be managed by people with professional experience, it should be managed by politicians with political aims.
  • Lots of homophobic stuff. I won’t even go into it. When the “next conservative President” is looking for all these political appointees, a great place to start the search will be closets.
  • Merit hiring, merit pay based on performance appraisal results, and the ability to let underperformers go in the civil service bureaucracy. Okay, I could get behind this one in theory as should anyone who has ever been to a post office. But they also want to gut benefits for federal workers, which is not really the right idea. [A good idea would be more along the lines of extending similar benefits to private sector workers. And most of the private sector, save certain corners of the finance industry, would benefit greatly from this. But the finance industry gets what it wants, such as no functional health care system.]
  • They just generally want to gut the bureaucracy and starve the beast, of course. Same old ideas they have always had. They sell them on the idea that the money would be given back to average people, when in reality these ideas are always used to justify subsidies for the already wealthy and powerful at everyone else’s expense.
  • Prepare for “great power competition”, and specifically for a war with China over Taiwan. Then stick a fork in China’s eye. [great way to pare the national debt, right?]
  • Active support by active duty military for border control.
  • NUCLEAR MODERNIZATION AND EXPANSION [because why do our children need to survive to old age at all? This is evil.]
  • Just shovel money at defense contractors without limit, and make producing weapons the focus of the U.S. economy. Funding research and development is okay only when it is about weapons.
  • Double down on recruiting high schoolers into the military. pp. 134-135 – this section is particularly chilling.

I’ll go ahead and post this since I haven’t posted in awhile. Maybe I’ll continue looking at the document in another post.

cows…chickens…welcome to The Far Side

Potential Pathways of Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A/H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b Across Dairy Farms in the United States

Recent outbreaks in US dairy farms, underscore the urgent need to understand the transmission pathways. The study aimed to evaluate the modes of introduction and transmission to dairy farms, through geospatial and exposure analyses. Our findings favour a singular introduction over multiple independent introductions, with non-waterfowl species exhibiting the highest dairy farm exposure, which is a major shift from historical waterfowl spread. Moreover, bidirectional spread between cattle and poultry highlights the intricate nature of disease transmission within the agricultural ecosystem.

medrxiv.org

just…can’t…resist…

https://philcomer.blogspot.com/2010/11/chicken-goes-in-bar-by-phil-comer.html

May election poll check-in

Here’s where we stand as I write this on May 2, 2024.

STATE2020 RESULTMost Recent Real Clear Politics Poll Average (as of 5/2/24)
ArizonaBiden +0.4%Trump +5.0% (April 3: Trump +5.2)
GeorgiaBiden +0.3%Trump +3.8% (April 3: Trump +4.5)
WisconsinBiden +0.6%Trump +1.8% (April 3: Trump +0.6%)
North CarolinaTrump +1.3%Trump +5.4% (April 3: Trump +4.6%)
PennsylvaniaBiden +1.2%Trump +1.0% (April 3: Trump +0.6%)
MichiganBiden +2.8%Trump +1.2% (April 3: Trump +3.4%)
NevadaBiden +2.4%Trump +4.5% (April 3: Trump +3.2%)
Real Clear Politics

The electoral college vote, as it stands at the moment, would be 312 for Trump to 226 for Biden (no change from April 3).

Of the 7 swing states lifted above, 3 shifted toward Biden (Arizona, Georgia less than 1%; Michigan more than 1%) and 4 shifted toward Trump (North Carolina and Pennsylvania less than 1%; Nevada and Wisconsin more than 1%). So it’s hard to see any clear momentum towards Biden in these numbers over the past month.

ABC-owned, Nate Silver-less 538 has its polling averages out now. These are supposedly weighted by quality and bias based on performance in past elections, so we can compare them to the Real Clear Politics straight up averages of quality and garbage polls. The 538 averages also consider third party candidates.

STATE538 Poll Average (5/2/24)Real Clear Politics Poll Average (5/2/24)
ArizonaTrump +3.2%Trump +5.0%
GeorgiaTrump +5.9%Trump +3.8%
WisconsinTrump +2.6%Trump +1.8%
North CarolinaTrump +6.4%Trump +5.4%
PennsylvaniaTrump +1.8%Trump +1.0%
MichiganTrump +1.3%Trump +1.2%
NevadaTrump +5.1%Trump +4.5%

So there is certainly not a story here to suggest that 538 thinks we are flooded with garbage polls biased towards Trump. 6 of their 7 averages show larger leads for Trump than the Real Clear Politics straight up averages. They could also suggest a shift toward Trump in more recent polls, since 538 gives more recent polls some extra weight.

Taken alongside the worsening March inflation trend, which was released in April and might tend to affect poll results released in April, I don’t see any good news here for Biden.

how to get rid of robins???

In my experience, robins can tear up grass, scatter mulch while foraging for food, and even eat fruit or crops from your garden. Moreover, their nests can harbor parasites and insects, which can put your family, pets, and home at risk. The smell of robin droppings can also be incredibly unpleasant, particularly if the birds manage to get inside your walls.

todayshomeowner.com

This left me speechless – It honestly never occurred to me that robins could have enemies. Could this person maybe be thinking of pigeons? Or is this person even a person? If this is an AI concluding that a harmless bird is a threat that needs to be gotten rid of, it may be a cautionary tale for other species, like ours.

AI and protein research

Here is a story in MIT News about AI doing experiments on proteins, with drug development and gene therapy implications. This seems like the clearest application of AI at the moment – anything where there is a formula to be figured out and a large number of combinations to be tried. I can definitely see this accelerating scientific and technological progress, although the efficiency to me seems to be more in the “automation” part than the “intelligence” part.

Los Angeles to Las Vegas high speed rail by 2028

High speed rail is actually inching forward in the United States, with a private company planning to connect the two urban areas starting in 2028. Here are some factoids from this article:

  • The route will be built primarily along an interstate highway median. This makes huge sense to me since the U.S. interstate highway system is secretly one of the world’s great feats of infrastructure financing and construction. It might be because we spent so much money and effort on it that we haven’t been able to pull off anything else comparable in the last half century. It might be hard to imagine as the autonomous vehicle hype bubble seems to have burst, but autonomous vehicles are eventually going to increase the capacity and reduce the congestion of U.S. highways. When that happens, we might be able to give over some of the real estate freed up to bullet trains, a true smart grid, solar panels, or whatever else we need to connect the country.
  • The Los Angeles end will be at a suburban commuter rail station. I guess this makes sense since most people don’t live in downtown Los Angeles and will need to get to dispersed locations in the metro area. And let’s just face it, people are going to drive to the train station and there is already going to be parking there. It does mean the real trip from downtown LA to downtown Las Vegas will be a lot more than the advertised two hours, for anyone actually doing that trip.
  • It got a mix of federal grants and tax-exempt loans. This makes sense too since the highways and airports in the country are heavily subsidized, whether we like to admit it or not. The total is about $6 billion – this seems very low but I guess this is a straight shot through the desert. Estimates for a comparable project linking dense urban areas like LA and San Francisco top $100 billion, and are still going nowhere.
  • It will “reach speeds” of 186 mph, comparable to Japanese bullet trains. This sounds good – I would like to know the average speed compared to the Japanese trains (which they poured money into right around the time the U.S. decided to build its highway system.) Again, this is a straight shot on new infrastructure through the desert. Amtrak’s Acela can “reach” pretty high speeds (150 mph according to this article) but it is limited by the condition of tracks and the fact that it has to share the tracks. (I use a suburban Philadelphia commuter rail station that Amtrak blows through several times a day. There is absolutely no physical separation between people on the platform and the train, which is a bit frightening.)
  • It is supposed to cut a 4-hour car trip to 2 hours.
  • It is supposed to be significantly cheaper than flying (but people don’t think this way – they typically compare the cost of mass transit to the cost of fueling their vehicles only, thinking of everything else as a sunk cost. So hopefully ridership projections will bear out.

All in all, sounds like a great project for the U.S.

the end of drone deliveries? long live drone deliveries!

In an example of a bad headline, this article is headlined “Amazon ends California drone deliveries“. But in the first paragraph, you learn they are discontinuing them in one particular town where they have been pilot testing them. There could be any number of political or bureaucratic reasons for this. And in the third paragraph, you learn they are starting them elsewhere, in this case in a Phoenix suburb.

My take: Deliveries by small, light autonomous vehicles make a ton of sense. In my view though, we are considering flying drones because our ground-level transportation designs are about 50 years out of date. We need to evolve our thinking from “bike lanes” to dedicated lanes for all sorts of slow, light vehicles that aren’t going to cause serious injuries or damage if they run into things. They have to be completely separate from lanes designed for highway vehicles. They need to be separate from pedestrian walkways. They need their own signals (or maybe they don’t need signals at all, but only if they are nowhere near those deadly highway vehicles). They need to be well constructed, well maintained, and enforced. I would allow only zero-emission and quiet vehicles in these lanes. All of this should be cheaper and easier than continuing to feed the money pit that is our outdated transportation infrastructure system currently in place in urban areas.

Politically, at least where I live, this gets into the “green gentrification” debate, and we are losing that debate massively, having just elected a mayor who is openly hostile to anything that would reduce the amount of blood soaking our streets. This is irrational of course, when safe efficient street designs could help people of all incomes and backgrounds get to jobs and lead longer, healthier lives.

NATO’s 2011 adventure in Libya

I wanted to refresh my memory on what happened in Libya in 2011. Well, to actually understand the factions and politics is well beyond my relatively limited grasp of geography and history. But as I was thinking about violations of sovereignty by UN Security Council members (of which the U.S. invasion of Iraq and Russian invasions of Ukraine are blatant examples), it occurred to me that 3 of the 5 permanent Security Council members (the U.S., France, and UK) were involved in this action. So if it was illegal, that would mean that 4 of 5 permanent Security Council members (all except China!) have been involved in illegal invasions of sovereign countries in the recent past.

But if we take Wikipedia as an authoritative source, there was a Security Council resolution that authorized a NATO “no-fly zone” (aka bombing campaign) in Libya, and what was done fell within the resolution. Russia and China abstained from that vote. So I am going to classify it as legal whether ill-advised or not. I think Russia can legitimately point to the U.S. Iraq invasion as a “whatabout” relevant to its invasion of Ukraine, but I don’t think it can point to Libya.

I guess my point here is that the relevance of the Security Council seems to have declined greatly, and maybe you can trace the beginning of its decline to the U.S. Iraq invasion. Whether it can be brought back to relevance, or whether the Ukraine invasion is the final nail in its coffin, remains to play out. But if the members want to save it, it would seem that some commitment and effort would be required, and I don’t see many signs of that happening.