Category Archives: Web Article Review

clean up that air and get those fat asses moving!

Max Roser has one of his nice data-based articles focused on air pollution. There are a variety of estimates, but they fall within a fairly narrow range (considering the population of the world) of about 7-9 million people per year. Something like 2-4 million of this is estimated to be due to indoor air pollution, which is a big problem in the developing world. The biggest source of the problem is…wait for it…particulates from burning fossil fuels.

He compares these numbers to around 75,000 deaths per year from terrorism and war combined, 500,000 from homicide (I’m rounding to the nearest 100,000, and he doesn’t provide numbers for suicide which I would guess could be similar or higher), 1.3 million for road accidents, and 2.8 million for obesity.

So if you were a politician (or emperor) who wanted to help the most people, you would make this a big priority, along with reducing deaths in and around motor vehicles and deaths from all the sitting around we do. What do these all have in common? We need to work toward electrification and clean energy, sure – but using 100% existing knowledge and technology, we can design safer streets and roads using the designs we (okay, a few Europeans, at least) already know work, and encourage people to live near work and shopping where they can mostly get around by their own muscle power, supplemented by good public transportation. Or to be much more crude, get those fat asses moving and those lungs out in the healthy, fresh air! Every dollar transferred from the defense/security budget to these things would pay off something like 8:1. And that is in the short term, if a thing called global warming caused by burning fossil fuels did not even exist.

On revolution

Today’s topic is random thoughts on revolution. Seems fitting somehow as I write on Thanksgiving Eve 2021. Thanksgiving is a uniquely American (i.e. U.S.) holiday, although it has nothing to do with the American Revolution per se.

First, for Thanksgiving I have purchased a 12-pack of the Yard’s breweries “beers of the revolution”. Yards claims to have based these recipes on ones found in the actual papers of Washington, Jefferson, and Franklin. However literally or loosely they have interpreted whatever is in those papers, these beers are all yummy! I plan to drink “George Washington’s Porter” on Thanksgiving itself.

Second, I have purchased the novel Invisible Sun by Charles Stross, which is next in the Merchant Princes series and came out just recently. I don’t want to spoil anything, but the idea of revolution plays a role in this series. In fact, there is a book that serves as a sort of cheat sheet for how to avoid the mistakes of revolutions past and successfully mix politically revolution with catch-up technological progress. They seem to manage just this, although they do not avoid the ravages of global warming. A slight spoiler is that the American Revolution is not the primary model for their revolution, and neither is the British Revolution, the French Revolution, or any other European revolution a mostly ignorant American might have heard of. Nor is it based on communism, although they do seem to have decent public transportation, which we here in the U.S. know is a Commie plot!

Partly inspired by Charles Stross, I read a book called The Shortest History of Europe and another called Revolutions and the Revolutionary Tradition in the West: 1560-1991. I learned that there was something called a Dutch revolution, which I had no idea of. My knowledge of the British and French revolutions was mostly based on being forced to read A Tale of Two Cities in high school, which is mostly about the French revolution. The other fictional account I thought was about the French Revolution was Les Miserables, which I looked up and it is not about the (1789) French Revolution, but takes place around the 1830s. Like I said, I’m ignorant. But it’s not really my fault – in the course of my grade school studies, I had no less than three full years of American history, plus a full year of Virginia history around fourth or fifth grade. Wouldn’t it make sense if we had at least a year of European history at some point, maybe around the same time we are forced to read A Tale of Two Cities? The history of classical Greece and Rome, followed by Europe, used to be called “western civilization”. That might not be politically correct these days – well, maybe a two-year course covering those topics in a larger context of world history would make equal sense.

Continuing my historical theme this fall, I also read (listed to) S.P.Q.R. by Mary Beard, a historian of ancient Rome. I enjoyed this much more than the European history. It all ties together in a few ways. First, the fall of the Roman Republic in the first century B.C. (we are supposed to say B.C.E. now), along with the instability in many European countries around the 1700s right through the 1900s, convinces me that long-term stable governments are definitely the exception and not the rule in human affairs. Stable forms of government, democratic or not, seem to often be measured in years to decades. Centuries definitely seem to be the except to the rule, and I am not aware of any form of government that persisted for a millennium or more. So you could say the U.S. is doing pretty well as it approaches to 250-year mark, but getting pretty long in the tooth. Changes in government are not always sudden or violent. The Roman emperors maintained many of the nominal institutions of the Republic on paper, such as the Senate, while gradually usurping their functions. In the end, the Roman empire did “fall” so much as fade away into regional enclaves mixed in with the quasi-international Catholic and Orthodox churches. The breakup of the British, French, Habsburg, and Ottoman empires mirror this in many ways, and there may be some parallels to U.S. retrenchment in parts of the world, although that history is far from settled. There are probably good examples in the Eastern and Southern Hemispheres too, but I will have to chip away on my ignorance of those another time!

One final thought – something that surprised me is that episodes of inflation are a common theme that often coincide with or trigger political instability in history. Maybe I will give this some more thought and attempt to say intelligent things about it another time.

The Onion on temporary money

If I share an article from The Onion, it is usually obviously a joke. But this one go me thinking:

WASHINGTON—In a unique and limited-time offer for residents of the United States only, Janet Yellen announced Tuesday that Americans could use the promo code “THANKS” for 10% off all U.S. goods and services. “This Thanksgiving, the Treasury Department is saying ‘thanks’ with an exclusive promotion just for taxpayers, whether you need a pack of gum or a new car,” said the Treasury Secretary, who urged Americans to redeem the incredible offer today, stating that she herself was a “huge fan” of U.S. goods and services, which she loved and used every day. “To activate the promo code, simply mention it to your Whataburger cashier, or visit treasury.gov/thanks. Remember, this amazing offer won’t last, so now’s the time to book that babysitter or finally get that Instant Pot! Again, that’s T-H-A-N-K-S, thanks.” At press time, Yellen added that the offer was for first-time U.S. consumers only.

The Onion

So we’ve had this massive economic stimulus – both monetary (low interest rates and “quantitative easing”, which they tell us is printing money but without the paper or coins, just willing it into existence in our computers collective imaginations) and fiscal (the government borrowing money from itself, which is another way of willing it into existence, and giving it back to us as “tax credits”, sometimes by writing numbers in our bank statements each month). A problem with just passing out money is that the poor spend it, but the middle class only spend some of it and the rich just squirrel it away. So you end up with a ton of money sitting around, and then when demand picks up people suddenly start spending it, and the real economy cannot ramp up supply instantly, so prices have to go up to put the brakes on demand and bring it down to what is actually supplied. Gradually, we hope supply will catch up and the rate of price increases will stabilize to something normal. The danger is that people can keep demanding higher wages, companies can raise prices to cover the higher wages, and the system can spiral from there. There are time lags built into the system so while prices can change quickly, the underlying real economy can’t.

So at least part of the root of the problem is people saving rather than spending stimulus money, then spending it unexpectedly. So what if you did have a kind of money that was more like a coupon with an expiration date, and could only be spent in a limited time frame, but not saved long term. Businesses would have to be willing to accept it. This might be accomplished easily if they knew they could use it to pay their taxes. The federal government would have to agree to accept the temporary money as tax payments, and get state and local governments to fall in line. People will speculate on anything given the chance, so the government might have to outlaw complex trading arrangements or derivatives based on the temporary currency.

East Asian people may have genetic defenses against Covid-19

It’s somewhat taboo to suggest that ethnic groups might be genetically superior or inferior to others, but when it comes to susceptibility or resistance to specific diseases, we should be willing to acknowledge this possibility. Most countries in Asia seemed to manage the Covid emergency much better than most western countries. I thought from the beginning that much better health and quarantine systems at airports must be a big factor. Somewhat privacy-invasive contact tracing measures and a willingness to restrict movement seem to be other significant differences between west and east, and you can see these even in Australia and New Zealand which are still largely ethnically European (although I say lots of Asian faces on trips on Sydney). But even given that, it always seemed like there might be some genetic or lifestyle factors to explain the order-of-magnitude differences.

Studies have shown that more people in Asia have a defense enzyme called APOBEC3A that attacks RNA viruses, including the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19, when compared to people in Europe and Africa…

Some people may wonder if the self-extinction of the delta variant in Japan was caused by something special in the genetic make-up of Japanese people, but Inoue disagrees.

“I don’t think so,” he said. “People in East Asia, such as Koreans, are ethnically the same as Japanese. But I don’t know why this observation was made in Japan.”

Japan Times

The “self-extinction”, by the way, is the idea that once isolated from external influxes and exposed to a largely resistant population, the virus may have acquired mutations that have doomed it.

I understand why it is politically and culturally hard to do contact tracing and quarantine in the U.S., and nearly impossible to physically restrict movement. I still don’t understand why we can’t implement effective screening and quarantine procedures at our international airports when we have had a year and a half of emergency conditions now to get that done.

the littoral combat ship

We’ve heard a lot about the F-35 aircraft being a boondoggle. Apparently, the U.S. Navy has a boondoggle of its own called the littoral combat ship.

It has been plagued by problems since its conception in 2001. Uncharitably dubbed the “little crappy ship” by its detractors, the program has faced cost overruns, delays, mechanical failures, and questions over the platforms’ survivability in high-intensity combat. Each of the 23 commissioned littoral combat ships cost around $500 million to build, with astronomical operating costs adding to the program’s hefty price tag. 

War on the Rocks

Knowing nothing about naval or littoral combat, building a bunch of small ships like this does seem like a better idea than a few multi-billion dollar aircraft carriers and battleships which can be taken out by missiles and mines. A half a billion dollars for one “crappy little ship” seems a bit steep though.

the anti-vax movement…of 1796

This is a great article from Open Culture – even if I hadn’t read it (I did), the pictures alone made me laugh out loud. However, beyond the laughs, the interesting and educational part was the description of how each and every new vaccine that comes out causes some fear and resistance, and this has been going on since vaccines were invented. Smallpox was a horrible disease, and the first vaccine was derived from a related virus that afflicts cows. People at the time were concerned that the vaccine would make them grow horns and start mooing. The early vaccine technology was in fact riskier than what we have now, although much less risky than the diseases they were vaccinating against, which is the whole point. The only silver lining is that once a vaccine has been out for a few decades to a couple centuries at most, we all seem to just accept it as the new normal and move on to complaining about the next one that comes out. Almost everyone screaming about the (incredibly effective, low-risk in absolute terms, and absolutely negligible risk relative to the disease it is preventing) Covid-19 vaccine is going to have been inoculated for polio, measles, tetanus, and many other diseases as a child. We don’t appreciate the suffering these vaccines have prevented (at least in developed countries) because we have not suffered ourselves or lost people we care about to these diseases in living memory.

those wild, wacky Covid-19 data points

I have noticed for awhile that the CDC’s Covid-19 data doesn’t agree with other sources, which don’t agree with each other. Looking at my home city (and County) of Philadelphia, the CDC’s numbers have been consistently higher for many months. This matters because government agencies, employers (including mine), and individuals are basing decisions on these numbers, often the CDC numbers.

Let’s look at today’s numbers for Philadelphia. I’ll look just at “confirmed cases” because that seems to be the most readily available and frequently updated by all sources, although really I think we should be focused more on deaths at this point, because deaths (although morbid) gives you some information on cases and vaccination/immunity combined. In other words, if cases are high but deaths are low, you would have an annoyance but not a major problem. Nonetheless, let’s look at those cases for Philadelphia today! I’m writing this on Sunday, November 21, 2021. I’m using the links from my coronavirus tracker post.

  • CDC: 111.55 / 100,000 population / 7 days (data from November 13-19)
  • Pennsylvania state health department: 86.4 / 100,000 population / 7 days (data from November 12-18)
  • Covid Act Now: 116.2 / 100,000 population / 7 days (data from November 20 which they describe as a 7 day average provided by the New York Times)

There are a number of things that could explain differences in the numbers. First, the time periods the data represent varying slightly by source. Second, whether the data represent the date the test was done, the test was reported, or the estimated date of infection. Generally I think what is reported is the date the test was done. This is hard data of a sort, but it introduces a time lag as numerous and scattered labs report their data. The data you are looking at might not yet represent all the data available on a given day, and it might be corrected retroactively, meaning if you check what today’s number was a week from now, you might see a different number from today. Finally, when reporting data for a location like a county, it may be important whether they are reporting all tests done in that county or matching tests to the home addresses (or employer addresses?) of the individuals tested. Philadelphia, for example, has a huge health care industry with a lot of commuters not just from surrounding counties in Pennsylvania but parts of New Jersey and Delaware. (States were never the right entities to track this pandemic, it should obviously be done by entities covering metro areas.)

If all the sources were using similar data but using slightly different time periods or calculation methods, I would expect some differences but I would expect the differences to be random. The state health department numbers are consistently lower, however. I am hoping that might be because they are doing a better job of matching tests to home addresses.

James Galbraith on inflation

Here is what James Galbraith (an economist at the University of Texas, whose name is always given with the middle initial of K, but I find that a bit pompous) says is causing inflation:

  • high oil prices (“oil” being shorthand for gasoline, fuel oil, and natural gas) driven by pandemic recovery and cut-backs in shale oil/gas production. A short-term solution is to sell from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize prices. He says shale production will pick up driven by market forces now that prices are high.
  • commodity speculation. Solution is regulation.
  • military spending. This is a good point – he says we are spending $700 billion per year on “weapons and defense”, and I suspect this number would be over a trillion per year if you consider all defense, intelligence, security and nuclear weapons spending as a whole, which is scatter across the government beyond the Department of Defense. Something that irritates me – why do we talk about the infrastructure investment and social spending bills Congress is considering as totals over a decade or more, which leads to a sticker shock effect, but defense spending on an annual basis, if we talk about it all? I AM GOING TO SPEND OVER ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS ON MY HOUSE OVER THE NEXT DECADE!!! But my monthly payment is something I can (just barely, not particularly comfortably) afford on my income, and that is how I think and plan my life and family finances. Democrats seem to think the big numbers have a kind of positive shock value showing that they are doing big, bold things. But Republicans just incoherently scream SPENDING!!! and INFLATION!!! and that communication strategy seems to be winning. (My 30-year fixed rate monthly mortgage payment is going to seem less spectacular, by the way, in a world where a bag of groceries costs $100 or more, which seems to be where we are headed. My wife and I are relying on a lot of prepared food and takeout these days, because I am working full time to maintain our private health insurance and other benefits, and we are raising small children in the richest country in the world without a childcare program. Also, our dishwasher is broken and due to the supposed labor shortage, the repair has been postponed several times even though the part is available. We are grateful that we are healthy and well-nourished and have a roof over our heads and realize many people are in much worse situations…)
  • supply chain bottlenecks, including clogged ports. These will work themselves out, although it seems to be a painfully slow process.

He says raising interest rates alone would not be a good solution to any of these problems. He says it is important for wage increases to go to low-paid workers. That certainly seems fair and just, although I am not sure how that is a solution to the problems above.

really big bombs

Here are some facts and figures from an article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

  • The nuclear weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were 15 and 20 kilotons.
  • The largest nuclear weapon tested by the United States was Castle Bravo, at 15 MT, in 1954. It was bigger than the scientists calculated it was going to be, and produced more fallout.
  • The largest weapon tested by the Soviet Union was Tsar Bomba at 50 MT in 1961. They actually designed the bomb to be 100 MT and intentionally exploded it only halfway.

You can make bigger nuclear bombs by using smaller ones (relatively speaking) to set them off. There seems to be almost no theoretical limit to how high you could go.

At a secret meeting of the General Advisory Committee of the Atomic Energy Commission, Teller broached, as he put it, “the possibility of much bigger bangs.” At his Livermore laboratory, he reported, they were working on two new weapon designs, dubbed Gnomon and Sundial. Gnomon would be 1,000 megatons and would be used like a “primary” to set off Sundial, which would be 10,000 megatons. Most of Teller’s testimony remains classified to this day, but other scientists at the meeting recorded, after Teller had left, that they were “shocked” by his proposal. “It would contaminate the Earth,” one suggested…

It is hard to convey the damage of a gigaton bomb, because at such yields many traditional scaling laws do not work (the bomb blows a hole in the atmosphere, essentially). However, a study from 1963 suggested that, if detonated 28 miles (45 kilometers) above the surface of the Earth, a 10,000-megaton weapon could set fires over an area 500 miles (800 kilometers) in diameter.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Bombs this big have no strategic or practical use, they tell us. I don’t find this comforting. It just takes one madman to not get that and try something reckless one time, and our civilization is gone.