Washington State carbon tax on the ballot

Washington State has a carbon tax on the ballot in the November election. The oil industry is fighting it tooth and nail, but it also has high-profile backers.

A $3 million boost in spending is largely due to an influx of cash from BP America, one of the major oil companies operating refineries in the state. Phillips66, formerly the led donor, has given $7.20 million, followed by Andeavor (the former Tesoro) at $4.3 million.

Supporters of the carbon fee have raised over $12 million, or half of what Big Oil has put into defeating the measure. Its backers include businesses such as Microsoft, the American Lung Assn., Gov. Jay Inslee, environmentalist and labor leaders.

The latest infusion to the “Yes” side is a $1 million donation from former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates has donated $1 million.

Interesting that the oil industry is tentatively supporting a national carbon tax at the same time they are fighting this so aggressively. It suggests they are afraid of these state-level taxes and would rather do some wheeling and dealing in Congress to get a weaker deal in place that would block stronger taxes like this one.

more jobs doesn’t lessen poverty?

This article digs into a study on correlations between poverty, job creation and social mobility (along with several other factors). Unfortunately, just creating new jobs in low-income areas didn’t seem to increase the chances of children moving up the economic ladder compared to their parents. However, living or moving to a neighborhood where most people are employed does increase the chances of a child moving up the economic ladder compared to their parents.

It’s puzzling. The explanation that is easy to jump to is that cultural factors are very important and can’t be changed overnight. I’m sure there is some truth to that. I can think of other potential factors though – maybe parents in low income areas are taking those jobs, but whatever extra income they are pulling in is not enough to offset spending less time with their children. Maybe they are more likely to be single parents, lack extended family support, struggle with substance abuse and mental illness, not be able to afford high quality health care and child care, and live in low-performing school districts. Under these circumstances, it wouldn’t be too surprising that their children are not getting ahead. Those middle class professional parents in the neighborhoods where everyone is employed are probably scraping together enough to pay for decent health care and child care, and are probably demanding more from their school systems.

climate change threatens barley yields

A new study says climate change is likely to threaten barley yields, leading to high beer prices later in the century. I’m hoping this is wrong and we can grow hops and barley in the formerly frozen tundra of Canada and Siberia. Of course the bigger picture is about grain yields overall, and that is not just about average temperature but about extreme heat and drought.

Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat

Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume consumed, and yields of its main ingredient, barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Although the frequency and severity of drought and heat extremes increase substantially in range of future climate scenarios by five Earth System Models, the vulnerability of beer supply to such extremes has never been assessed. We couple a process-based crop model (decision support system for agrotechnology transfer) and a global economic model (Global Trade Analysis Project model) to evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes projected under a range of future climate scenarios. We find that these extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions. Decreases in the global supply of barley lead to proportionally larger decreases in barley used to make beer and ultimately result in dramatic regional decreases in beer consumption (for example, −32% in Argentina) and increases in beer prices (for example, +193% in Ireland). Although not the most concerning impact of future climate change, climate-related weather extremes may threaten the availability and economic accessibility of beer.

haunted houses

The New York Times has a roundup of haunted house stories just in time for Halloween. I have read only two on the list – The Shining, which I liked, and Slade House, which I didn’t.

I’m not too big on horror but I occasionally dabble. Sometimes you remember where you were when you read certain books, and it happens that I read these two books in Thailand two Octobers four years apart. I like Lovecraft. I am interested in reading the “laundry series” by Charles Stross, which sounds like a mix between Men in Black and Monster Hunter International (which I also read in Thailand incidentally – traveling is when I read and Thailand is a place I travel, so there.)

illegal oil trade

This article from Yale says there is a large illegal trade in oil. My first thought was that if countries or companies are producing oil, don’t they have the right to sell it to whoever they want? It turns out, oil is being stolen and sold by groups or even individuals who are not the actual producers in some cases, and in other cases it is being smuggled or laundered by producers who are under international sanctions.

In some cases, subnational actors openly export oil despite official prohibition by central governments. The Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq maintains it is their region’s constitutional right to export oil independently, in defiance of the central government. With Baghdad withholding the region’s 17 percent of budget share, the regional government sought economic independence through hydrocarbons and found a degree of international sympathy, given its role in combatting ISIS and hosting 1.9 million refugees and internally displaced people. The unrefined product was sent via pipeline through Turkey’s Ceyhan port, loaded by various Greek shipping companies on tankers, then stored in Malta or Israel until buyers were found. Shifting routes of Kurdish oil tankers can be observed on sites like tankertrackers.com…

With 90 percent of the world’s goods, 30 percent of which are total hydrocarbons, traded by sea, much of the illegal fuel trade is conducted on water. Two thirds of global daily oil exports are transported by sea, reports the UN Conference on Trade and Development, and a staggering 64 percent of international waters are areas beyond any national jurisdiction. Non-state actors offshore West Africa, Bangladesh or Indonesia take advantage of loopholes created by international law and the law of the sea. Transfer of illegal fuel is often done ship to ship on neutral waters – with one ship commercially legal, recognized as carrying legitimate imports at the final port of destination. Thus, illegal crude from countries such as Libya or Syria finds its way to EU markets.  Recently Russian ships have been found involved in smuggling oil products to North Korea through ship to ship transfers.

Armed theft and piracy also occurs. Hijackings off the coast of Somalia resumed in 2017, the first since 2012, after the international community reduced enforcement. Beyond jurisdictional issues, many governments are overwhelmed by other maritime security threats and cannot prioritize the illegal trade. In fact, fuel traders have reported that the problem is so pervasive that many companies calculate in advance for losses up to 0.4 percent of any ordered cargo volumes.

 

statistical analysis of the Supreme Court

A statistical analysis of the U.S. Supreme Court suggests that it is not all that partisan after all. Okay, I admit it, I am really just pretending to understand half the words in the abstract below. It’s always kind of fun when physicists dabble in fields outside their usual boundaries, like economics or politics.

Partisan Intuition Belies Strong, Institutional Consensus and Wide Zipf’s Law for Voting Blocs in US Supreme Court

The US Supreme Court throughout the twentieth century has been characterized as being divided between liberals and conservatives, suggesting that ideologically similar justices would have voted similarly had they overlapped in tenure. What if they had? I build a minimal, pairwise maximum entropy model to infer how 36 justices from 1946–2016 would have all voted on a Super Court. The model is strikingly consistent with a standard voting model from political science, W-Nominate, despite using 105 less parameters and fitting the observed statistics better. I find that consensus dominates the Super Court and strong correlations in voting span nearly 100 years, defining an emergent institutional timescale that surpasses the tenure of any single justice. Thus, the collective behavior of the Court over time reveals a stable institution insulated from the seemingly rapid pace of political change. Beyond consensus, I discover a rich structure of dissenting blocs with a heavy-tailed, scale-free distribution consistent with data from the Second Rehnquist Court. Consequently, a low-dimensional description of voting with a fixed number of ideological modes is inherently misleading because even votes that defy such a description are probable. Instead of assuming that strong higher order correlations like voting blocs are induced by features of the cases, the institution, and the justices, I show that such complexity can be expressed in a minimal model relying only on pairwise correlations in voting.

degree in automated science

Carnegie Mellon now has a degree in automated science.

CMU’s Computational Biology Department will offer the Master of Science in Automated Science: Biological Experimentation beginning in fall 2019 and is accepting applications for its initial class through Dec. 1.

“Automation has disrupted numerous industries and is poised to radically transform the pace and economics of scientific research in academia and industry,” said Robert F. Murphy, head of the Computational Biology Department and co-director of the new master’s degree program. “We will train students to become leaders in this new field, where automated instruments and artificial intelligence combine to produce scientific discoveries.”

Automation such as high-throughput screening is a standard means of experimentation for drug discovery and of basic biological science. Advances in AI and machine learning now make it possible and — given the complexity and scope of today’s experiments — even preferable for computers to choose which experiments will fill gaps in knowledge and which only duplicate knowledge and can be skipped.

more on Americans for Carbon Dividends

This group, which includes Exxon Mobil, is proposing a four-part plan:

  1. A $40 per ton tax on carbon rising annually at a gradual rate;
  2. Tax revenues generated would be refunded to all citizens (hence the name, “Carbon Dividends”);
  3. This plan would terminate the EPA’s regulatory authority over carbon emissions and specifically terminate the recently enacted Clean Power Plan;
  4. Require “border carbon adjustments to level the playing field and permit American competitiveness.” (Other relatively high CO2 emitting countries apart from the US are China and Russia).

This article I am linking to is highly skeptical, as are some prominent environmental groups, due to the restrictions it would place on EPA regulation. I’m not sure yet whether I would support it. So far EPA regulation has not accomplished anything. Oil and gas companies must be afraid that it eventually will, and see this as a choice between a predictable and manageable business cost versus an unknown but potentially unlimited risk. What isn’t mentioned here is protection from litigation, which I have heard might also be part of the deal. They might be afraid of that too.

I support pollution taxes in general. I have made a career of helping regulated entities (water utilities in my case) deal with EPA regulations, and I don’t see them as particularly rational, effective, or economical even when the underlying laws are well-thought-out. It might be worth trying something different. Once we have a carbon tax on the books, the actual amount can be adjusted until it is effective, and the concept can potentially be applied to other types of waste and pollution.