El Nino and the blizzard of ’16

We kept hearing that it was the warmest winter ever, and then the blizzard came along and disproved it, right? Not exactly, according to NPR:

Scientists have been doing some forensic work to figure out what set this megastorm in motion. And they think they’ve found a trail that starts with the weather pattern called El Niño…

“A lot of climate change is actually going into the oceans,” he says.

He means the oceans are absorbing a lot of the extra heat from the atmosphere. That can alter their circulation, and where and when they release that heat back into the atmosphere.

“It’s changing the behavior of the oceans in a way that affects weather patterns around the globe,” Mann says.

January 2016 in Review

I’m going to try picking the three most frightening posts, three most hopeful posts, and three most interesting posts (that are not particularly frightening or hopeful) from January.

3 most frightening posts

  • Paul Ehrlich is still worried about population. 82% of scientists agree.
  • Thomas Picketty (paraphrased by J. Bradford Delong) says inequality and slow growth are the norm for a capitalist society. Joseph Stiglitz has some politically difficult solutions: “Far-reaching redistribution of income would help, as would deep reform of our financial system – not just to prevent it from imposing harm on the rest of us, but also to get banks and other financial institutions to do what they are supposed to do: match long-term savings to long-term investment needs.”
  • Meanwhile, government for and by big business means the “Deep State” is really in control of the U.S. In our big cities, the enormous and enormously dysfunctional police-court-prison system holds sway over the poor.

3 most hopeful posts

3 most interesting posts

  • There are some arguments in favor of genetically modified food – they have increased yields of some grains, and there is promise they could increase fish yields. 88% of scientists responding to a Pew survey said they think genetically modified food is safe, but only 37% of the U.S. public thinks so. In other biotech news, Obama’s State of the Union announced a new initiative to try to cure cancer. In other food news, red meat is out.
  • Not only is cash becoming obsolete, any physical form of payment at all may become obsolete.
  • The World Economic Forum focused on technology: “The possibilities of billions of people connected by mobile devices, with unprecedented processing power, storage capacity, and access to knowledge, are unlimited. And these possibilities will be multiplied by emerging technology breakthroughs in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing, nanotechnology, biotechnology, materials science, energy storage, and quantum computing.”

 

Nate Silver’s Iowa Caucus Predictions

Political season is data science season! Here is some more on Nate Silver’s forecasting methods. If you are reading this in real time (Sunday January 31), by tomorrow night we will find out what actually happens. I will reproduce some graphics here – these are all from the FiveThirtyEight site, so please thank me for the free advertising and don’t send me to copyright jail.

For Clinton vs. Sanders, here is Nate’s average of polls as of today. He gives more recent polls greater weighting, and also adjusts somehow for bias shown in the same polls in the past.

Average of polls: Clinton 48.0% vs. Sanders 42.7%

Now, this is within the 4-6% “margin of error” reported by most polls. (I find this easier to find on the RealClearPolitics site, although curiously it lists margins of error for Democratic polls but not Republican ones. RealClearPolitics does a straight-up poll average without all the corrections that today is Clinton 47.3% vs. Sanders 44%. So all the corrections don’t make an enormous difference.) I can’t easily and quickly find information on whether the “margin of error” is a standard error or a confidence interval or what, but generally when the polls are within the margin of error the media tends to report it as a “statistical tie” or dead heat. And that is exactly what they are saying in this case.

Nate Silver does a set of simulations – it sounds very complicated, but in essence I assume he takes his adjusted poll average for each candidate, some measure of spread like standard error, then runs a whole bunch of simulations. Which leads to results like this:

Clinton-Sanders Simulation

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-democratic/

Based on this, Nate Silver gives Clinton an 80% chance of winning Iowa and Sanders only a 20% chance.

So what’s interesting is that you have the average of polls (48-43 or 47-44 depending on source), which everyone says is a statistical tie. You have Silver’s predicted result (50-43) based on a large number of simulations, and then you have the resulting odds considering both the predicted result and the spread in the predictions (80-20). In other words, the computer is generating random numbers and 80% of simulations end up favoring Clinton. Of course in real life the dice get rolled only once, but these odds seem pretty good for Clinton.

Meanwhile, the Trump-Cruz contest is similarly close in the polls (30-25 in favor of Trump), but the predicted result (26-25 in favor of Trump) and odds (48-41 in favor of Trump) are much closer. From a quick glance, this appears to be because the spreads are much wider. I don’t know why that would be the case – presence of more viable candidates on the Republican side? Or maybe there is just more variability in the polls and nobody actually knows why.

Republican Iowa Caucus simulation

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/

 

 

fixing sidewalks at point of sale

You can require homeowners (actually home sellers) to fix sidewalks when they sell their property (“point of sale”). Los Angeles does this, which Donald Shoup says is a great idea. Philadelphia has a similar legal framework where the homeowner technically owns and is responsible for the sidewalk, but does not require point of sale repairs. The city can write you a ticket for a broken sidewalk if they want to, just like any other code violation, but that is not too often done because the public outcry would be pretty severe. Also, it’s the transportation agency that is supposed to do this and not the code enforcement agency, so may not fit clearly within their mission and priorities. One more interesting thing the article mentions is that if sidewalks were made more clearly a code violation, this would show up in real estate records, and there would then be some pressure from mortgage and insurance companies to fix them.

Another option, of course, would be for the city to take over the sidewalk, along with street trees and infrastructure up to the house line. This could be part of a grand vision for how to implement 21st century urban infrastructure – complete streets, better materials than tired old concrete and asphalt, urban forests, public spaces, modernized water, sewer, gas, electric, and communications infrastructure. I for one would be indifferent to paying slightly higher taxes rather than being ticketed for code violations for I have very little control over, and this would also be more equitable. But it’s easier for the politicians to pin in on the private owner and say it has “zero cost”.

more things you don’t want to be true

Actually I’m not sure if I want this to be true or not, but

John Kasich has reasonable views on immigration.

Why wouldn’t I want this to be true? I’m not sure. I suppose because I don’t want to like any conservative governor after the awful one we just survived in Pennsylvania. In four short years he destroyed public education across the state, especially poorer urban areas, allowed gas companies to gut the environment, and did nothing to fix our state’s pension woes or entrenched poverty (either of which gas royalties could have at least made a dent in when energy prices were so high, but it’s a little late now.) Trading natural capital for financial capital, and restoring fiscal responsibility, are things a true conservative would do. About all he gave us was an entertaining pornography scandal. But I digress – if Kasich has a reasonable view on one issue, you have to admit it’s at least possible he might have reasonable views on other issues too. And I’m about ready to settle for reasonable with this crop of candidates.

what is a blizzard?

According to Five Thirty Eight,

Three factors are required for a storm to be classified as a blizzard at a particular place, besides falling or blowing snow:

1. Sustained winds or frequent wind gusts of 35 mph or greater

2. Visibility under a quarter-mile

3. These conditions must persist for three hours.

This definition is the same whether you’ve got 1 inch or 40 on the ground.

what to eat?

New U.S. government nutrition guidelines are out. And predictably, they are being criticized by nutritionists.

This year, for example, there were notable differences between the Advisory Committee’s recommendations and the final guidelines. According to scientific evidence, individuals should reduce their consumption of red and processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages, such as soda, to prevent chronic diseases. The scientific evidence for those two recommendations is “so clear, so strong,” says Willett — yet neither recommendation was included in the final guidelines…

The final guidelines also don’t include the Advisory Committee’s emphasis on sustainability of the food supply, including the need to reduce portions of beef, cited as “the single food with the greatest projected impact on the environment.”

“This is virtual proof that the USDA is not allowed to say anything negative about red meat,” says Willett. “The basic censorship of the report from the Advisory Committee is deeply troublesome.”

The report from the advisory committee is not exactly censored. It’s here, readily accessible for people who know how to find stuff on the internet.

An R package for modelling actual, potential and reference evapotranspiration

I and some people I know will be very excited about this. Which means I know some very weird people.

An R package for modelling actual, potential and reference evapotranspiration

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital component of the hydrological cycle and there are a large number of alternative models for representing ET processes. However, implementing ET models in a consistent manner is difficult due to the significant diversity in process representations, assumptions, nomenclature, terminology, units and data requirements. An R package is therefore introduced to estimate actual, potential and reference ET using 17 well-known models. Data input is flexible, and customized data checking and pre-processing methods are provided. Results are presented as summary text and plots. Comparisons of alternative ET estimates can be visualized for multiple models, and alternative input data sets. The ET estimates also can be exported for further analysis, and used as input to rainfall-runoff models.

the fourth industrial revolution

Reporting fro Davos…er…Philadelphia – the theme of this World Economic Forum is “the fourth industrial revolution”.

The First Industrial Revolution used water and steam power to mechanize production. The Second used electric power to create mass production. The Third used electronics and information technology to automate production. Now a Fourth Industrial Revolution is building on the Third, the digital revolution that has been occurring since the middle of the last century. It is characterized by a fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres.

There are three reasons why today’s transformations represent not merely a prolongation of the Third Industrial Revolution but rather the arrival of a Fourth and distinct one: velocity, scope, and systems impact. The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical precedent. When compared with previous industrial revolutions, the Fourth is evolving at an exponential rather than a linear pace. Moreover, it is disrupting almost every industry in every country. And the breadth and depth of these changes herald the transformation of entire systems of production, management, and governance.

The possibilities of billions of people connected by mobile devices, with unprecedented processing power, storage capacity, and access to knowledge, are unlimited. And these possibilities will be multiplied by emerging technology breakthroughs in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3-D printing, nanotechnology, biotechnology, materials science, energy storage, and quantum computing.