how many U.S. troops in Yemen?

Well, the answer to this one has to be zero, right??? According to the War Powers Report submitted to Congress by the White House in December, the answer is “a small number”. The summary letter I have linked to also lists other deployments the U.S. considers part of its “counterterrorism” efforts in the greater Middle East. So the “war on terror” is very much continuing. Most of this is about combating “ISIS” and “ISIL”, more or less at the invitation of the host government. These groups are not “Iran-backed” as far as I know, and in fact are even threatening to Iran.

The U.S. is also sometimes attacking Iran-backed groups and Iranian military advisers under the umbrella of counterterrorism. This particularly catches my eye:

As reported on November 22, 2023, I directed United States forces to conduct discrete strikes on the night of November 21, 2023, against facilities in Iraq used by the IRGC and IRGC-affiliated groups for command and control, logistics, and other purposes.  These strikes followed attacks against United States personnel and facilities in Iraq and Syria that threatened the lives of United States personnel and Coalition forces operating alongside United States forces, and that were perpetrated by the IRGC and militia groups affiliated with the IRGC.  A United States contractor suffered a fatal cardiac incident while moving to shelter during one of these attacks.  I directed these discrete military actions consistent with my responsibility to protect United States citizens both at home and abroad and in furtherance of United States national security and foreign policy interests, pursuant to my constitutional authority as Commander in Chief and Chief Executive and to conduct United States foreign relations.

whitehouse.gov

I’ll try: “Iran-backed” groups are fighting “US-backed” groups in various countries. Iran and the US both have military advisers in various countries. U.S. troops and contractors are occasionally getting hurt in attacks maybe aimed directly at them, and maybe aimed at more local parties. We’re there because they are fighting us, and they are fighting us because we’re there.

January 2024 in Review

Most frightening and/or depressing story: 2023 was “a year of war“, and so far 2024 is not looking better. Those diplomatic grand bargains you always hear about seem to be getting less grand. And the drumbeat for a U.S. attack on Iran got louder.

Most hopeful story: According to Bill Gates, some bright spots in the world today include gains in administering vaccines to children around the world, a shift toward greater public acceptance of nuclear power, and maybe getting a bit closer to the dream of fusion power. He pontificates about AI, and my personal sense is it is still too soon, but AI does hold some promise for speeding up scientific progress.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: The return of super-sonic commercial flight is inching closer.

those darn recipe sites

This is some seriously dark humor. But ha ha, also so true. You have to scroll forever to get to your recipe, and at least for me the mobile version of any recipe site is infuriating because it constantly crashes. And yet…what is also true is recipe websites have made our world better. Instead of winging a recipe, or relying on one book you happen to have lying around, you can find out the ingredients, measurements, and even watch a video of how to make it well. You can even look at several versions of a dish, then wing it, and it will usually come out pretty well. And if you wing it in the future, it will come out better than if the recipe sites did not exist. So thank you, recipe sites.

the ocean will be full of Philadelphia plastic trash for 10,000 years after our bones are dust

This is an article probably only of interest to people who live in Philadelphia, although the average U.S. city may not be run a lot better. I firmly believe however that the average major city is run a lot better. We have a new mayor, and despite saying it is a priority to make our city “clean and green” she has not made it a priority to actually appoint anyone to run the Philadelphia Streets Department. Her main campaign promise, as I understood it, was to make sure that no people who have lived outside Philadelphia and no new ideas not invented in Philadelphia will be allowed to penetrate Philadelphia.

The Streets Department is in charge of designing, building, and maintaining all our streets and in charge of garbage collection and recycling. Some of the other candidates for mayor proposed to split this into two departments, with competent professionals in charge of each. As you can see from the article, the trash situation clogging our streets, storm inlets, and ultimately streams, rivers, the Delaware Bay and the Atlantic Ocean is blamed on littering and illegal dumping by citizens. But what I see is that much of it is the result of incompetent trash pickup and the nearly complete lack of a street cleaning program. I also see broken and damaged traffic and pedestrian signals all over town, often functioning but pointing the wrong way. Stripes wear off a couple years after they are painted and are not repainted for decades. And the number of drivers, pedestrians, and bicyclists killed on our streets continues to climb. The police are no help on this last one, but I still think the majority of it is caused by incompetent design, incompetent construction oversight, and a virtually complete (incompetent would be overly generous here because it implies at least some minimal effort) lack of maintenance. The department undoubtedly has limited resources like all municipal departments everywhere, but a modern asset management program run by competent professionals would be the key to making the best use of the resources it has. Meanwhile people are literally dying on our streets and we are dumping more trash every day in the ocean, and it will literally be there forever.

I have come to believe that Philadelphia may be the most incompetent major city in any developed country in the world. Mayor Parker, prove to me that you understand and care about this, do something about it, and I will be your biggest fan.

the drum beat for a U.S. attack on Iran continues

The media always refers to “Iran-backed” and “Iran proxy” groups responsible for various events in the Middle East, but we never really see proof that Iran is participating in specific attacks. We often hear that Iran is providing aid, arms, or has military advisers on the ground. I’m not saying any of this is outright lies, as I wouldn’t know, but it raises my propaganda hackles. Just substitute “US-backed” or “US advisors” and see how many situations around the world you could write and article about suggesting the US is a nefarious force behind all sorts of events. And of course, this is exactly what happened.

This is not hypothetical. The US has military advisers in Jordan, for example, who were just attacked by an “Iran-backed” group (why do we have troops in Jordan, or Syria for that matter, and is this article is suggesting we have troops in Iraq?). And here are some quotes from the warmongers, courtesy of Axios:

  • “Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), said in a statement the attacks the U.S. has carried out on Iranian proxies outside Iran “will not deter Iranian aggression,” calling to “strike targets of significance inside Iran.”
  • “The only answer to these attacks must be devastating military retaliation against Iran’s terrorist forces, both in Iran and across the Middle East,” said Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). “Anything less will confirm Joe Biden as a coward unworthy of being commander-in-chief.”
  • Sen. John Cornyn, in a post on the social media site X, said: “Target Tehran[.]”
  • “The head of the snake is Iran,” Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee and former Air Force brigadier general, told Axios.”

The other talking point we are hearing from Republicans is that we are “acting like it is September 10”. This is a rhetorical attempt to link migration at the Mexico-Border to the Hamas attacks on Israel. The U.S. should of course be alert for an attack by radical Islamist groups who would see it as justified self-defense for America’s support for what they see as human rights abuses and war crimes committed by Israel. I am not taking a position here, just pointing out that it is a vicious cycle of escalating violence and all sides are stoking the flames rather than trying to interrupt the cycle. No evidence has been provided of any plot that would involve crossing the US-Mexico border.

a new “grand bargain” for the Middle East

When I first heard about a conceptual “grand bargain” under the Obama administration, the general idea was normalization of relations between the U.S., Iran, and Israel in exchange for Iran giving up its nuclear weapons program (maybe in exchange for a well monitored nuclear power program) and Israel allowing the creation of a Palestinian state. This obviously didn’t happen.

Before these ideas, there were smaller actual bargains including peace between Israel and most of its neighbors under Carter, and movement toward a Palestinian state under Clinton.

Before the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, the latest idea was a formal normalization of (already de facto?) diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, possibly in exchange for nuclear power for Saudi Arabia. Iran was left out of this, and in fact it seemed to be the solidification of an anti-Iran block. The Palestinians were also left out of this, as far as I know. So now it seems to me that Biden is proposing a return to this deal that was already essentially made, and trying to add some progress toward a Palestinian state in the mix. It doesn’t seem that likely to me, at least until a new generation of leadership takes over in Israel, and unless/until Biden gets re-elected or a new generation of leadership takes over in the U.S.

It seems to me that the “grand” bargain is getting smaller and more cynical all the time. Still, one thing we can count on is the passage of time, and new leadership eventually taking over in all countries involved. One can hope for a brighter picture 5-10 years down the line. Hoping for a brighter picture by November 2024 seems a bit wishful to me.

what’s new with super-sonic flight

NASA and Lockheed Martin claim to have a prototype supersonic jet whose sonic boom sounds “like a car door slamming heard from inside”. This could open the door to commercial supersonic flight over populated areas. Well, we don’t even have commercial super-sonic flight over the oceans at the moment, which would be helpful to long-haul travelers. The article doesn’t say when this might happen, but it doesn’t sounds soon. The article does mention that there is at least one other company working on a supersonic passenger jet which “it hopes” could be “in the air” (for testing presumably?) “later this year”.

my first take on the 2024 U.S. presidential election

With the Iowa Republican caucus in the books as I write this (Tuesday, January 16, 2024), stuff is starting to get real.

It seems like barring unforeseen major developments, we are headed for another Biden vs. Trump election. In the absence of any other information, I would just say look at what happened last time. Biden won pretty handily, and really nothing major has changed in any rational sense, except that there hasn’t been a recession, war, or pandemic (that has affected the vast majority of the U.S. public significantly). What there has been is inflation, and not just inflation but inflation following a long period of no inflation in many voters’ living memories. And that seems to me to be the one thing making the difference for Biden. There is just nothing else that makes sense to me.

Anyway, tiresome as it gets, we know it comes down to the “battleground states”. There were three states in 2020 with a voting margin of less than 1% (Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin), two within 1-2% (North Carolina and Pennsylvania), and two within 2-3% (Michigan and Nevada). That’s it – no, Florida and Ohio were not close. 7 states that matter out of 50 and some territories. I got these numbers from CNN.

Sure, it’s early to start looking at state-level general election polls. Sure, there are all sorts of problems with polls. Sure, other candidates could theoretically be nominated. Sure, third party candidates could affect the race. But the numbers below are at least averages of several polls over a period of time which might smooth out at least some biases, and they paint a consistent and deeply worrying picture for Biden at this stage.

STATE2020 RESULTMost Recent Real Clear Politics Poll Average (as of 1/16/24)
ArizonaBiden +0.4%Not Available
GeorgiaBiden +0.3%Trump +6.6%
WisconsinBiden +0.6%Not Available
North CarolinaTrump +1.3%Not Available
PennsylvaniaBiden +1.2%Trump +0.3%
MichiganBiden +2.8%Trump +5.3%
NevadaBiden +2.4%Trump +5.4%

I’ll try to update this from time to time. If I were much smarter, I would try to automate it. Well, I would like to think I am smart enough to figure that out, but it is just not close to the top of my project list.