short naps good, long naps bad

As I move deeper into middle age, I consider the luxury of a mid-afternoon nap to be one of life’s great pleasures. 30 minutes is about right, according to this article. After reading the article though, I can’t help wondering if longer naps are more of a symptom of other health problems or poor lifestyle choices rather than a driver of them.

My personal prescription for a little mid-afternoon pick-me-up:

  1. Read a book (Kindle is okay, computer or phone not recommended) until you start to feel a bit sleepy.
  2. Close eyes for 20-30 minutes. Just relax, don’t put any pressure on yourself to sleep, or consider meditation if you don’t feel sleepy.
  3. Open your eyes and read a bit more.
  4. Get up and exercise for 20-30 minutes.
  5. Take a shower.
  6. Have a cocktail. Don’t overdo it, just one is good.
  7. Now you’re ready for dinner, people, or whatever you want/need to do in the evening.

Obviously this is not a daily prescription for the harried working parent. I find maybe one afternoon per month to do this, but it is oh so rejuvenating mentally and physically. I fantasize about doing this every day in retirement.

another depressing U.S. statistic

According to KFF (which I hadn’t previously heard of, but describes itself as “the independent source for health policy research, polling, and news”), firearms are the leading cause of death among children in the United States.

Guns – including accidental deaths, suicides, and homicides – killed 4,357 children (ages 1-19 years old) in the United States in 2020, or roughly 5.6 per 100,000 children.

In each of the peer countries, guns kill fewer children than motor vehicles, cancer, congenital diseases, and other injuries, and often behind other conditions such as heart disease.

The U.S. is the only country among its peers that has seen a substantial increase in the rate of child firearm deaths in the last two decades (42%). All comparably large and wealthy countries have seen child firearm deaths fall since 2000. These peer nations had an average child firearm death rate of 0.5 per 100,000 children in the year 2000, falling 56% to 0.3 per 100,000 children in 2019.

KFF

This is certainly disturbing and upsetting. I suppose there is some context to consider. For example, children don’t die in large numbers of preventable diseases, which is a great thing, so when they do die it is mostly from rare diseases and accidehttps://www.kff.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/guntrol.pngnts. I would want to know how the U.S. compares in overall child mortality to the other industrialized countries considered in this study. Probably not favorably, but not mentioned in this study. I would be interested to know what the breakdown between children and older teens is, and what the breakdown between accidents, homicides, and suicides is. These are all tragedies, but each cause of death within each age group would have different root causes and different solutions.

Regardless, it is negligent and ignorant that we are letting this happen, and yet more proof our country is truly “exceptional”, just not in the good way.

April 2023 in Review

I made several posts with numbers on crime, suicide, and poverty. The U.S. is a violent, unequal country. I’ve talked about these issues a lot, so far without any noticeable effect on our political class. So I’ve picked some other things below.

Most frightening and/or depressing story: Chemicals, they’re everywhere! And there were 20,000 accidents with them in 2022 that caused injuries, accidents, or death. Some are useful, some are risky, and some are both. We could do a better job handling and transporting them, we could get rid of the truly useless and dangerous ones, and we could work harder on finding substitutes for the useful but dangerous ones. And we could get rid of a corrupt political system where chemical companies pay the cost of running for office and then reward candidates who say and do what they are told.

Most hopeful story: There has been some progress on phages, viruses intentionally designed to kill antibiotic-resistant bacteria. Also, anti-aging pills may be around the corner.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: I had heard the story of the Google engineer who was fired for publicly releasing a conversation with LaMDA, a Google AI. But I hadn’t read the conversation. Well, here it is.

“nuclear capable states”

I knew Japan was considered a nuclear capable state, meaning they have the technology, raw materials, and expertise to produce nuclear weapons if they so choose. I recently heard this claim about Taiwan, which was news to me. Now I have heard it about South Korea.

The risk of nuclear war is getting unacceptable. The U.S., Russia, and China could be leading on this issue, but are instead fanning the flames.

SEPTA tries micro-transit

The Philadelphia-area Southeastern Pennsylvania Transit Authority (SEPTA) is experimenting with micro-transit. I have heard that the idea of micro-transit, including semi-fixed but flexible bus routes people can schedule with apps, has not worked all that well in trials elsewhere. And SEPTA has a history and tendency of underwhelming. Nonetheless, I think that if the U.S. remains committed to its low-density sprawl land use preferences, traditional fixed bus and rail routes are just not going to work. Something more flexible is needed, and if public agencies can find ways to do it more efficiently or cost-effectively than the private sector then it’s worth a try. If we are tempted to say it is unfair for a subsidized government agency to compete with the private sector in this area, we should remember the enormous public funding that has gone into building and maintaining our enormous public road network over the past 70 or so years at the expense of nearly all other types of public infrastructure.

I’m still skeptical of you though SEPTA. You have never exceeded my low and steadily declining expectations. Prove me wrong.

Peter Turchin has a new book

His new book is called End Times but it does not appear to be about the apocalypse, but about a cyclical view of political history with some evidence to back it up.

When a state, such as the United States, has stagnating or declining real wages, a growing gap between rich and poor, overproduction of young graduates with advanced degrees, declining public trust, and exploding public debt, these seemingly disparate social indicators are actually related to each other dynamically. Historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of looming political instability. In the United States, all of these factors started to turn in an ominous direction in the 1970s. The data pointed to the years around 2020 when the confluence of these trends was expected to trigger a spike in political instability.

Peter Turchin

I haven’t read the book, but I have officially added it to my queue of too-many-books-to-read-before-I die. (I’m not terminally ill that I know of, it’s just a long and growing list.) The queue is periodically randomized, so just because it already has too many books to read before I die does not mean I will never read this particular book.

Anyway, one disturbing implication just from the brief description above is that we may not be able to educate our society out of economic inequality. That seems to go against the data which clearly show that people with more education earn more than people with less education. So it’s a case where a dynamic model leads to a different, counterintuitive conclusion compared to a linear extrapolation of data from the recent past.

How Religious is Congress Compared to the Country?

Axios has some interesting stats:

  • About 27% of U.S. adults report not be affiliated with any religion. Only 4% of our elected officials will admit to the same? This implies to me that organized religion is…well…organized when it comes to pushing its priorities in the public realm.
  • 90% of Congress members identify as Christian, compared to 65% of the population. About 6% of Congress is Jewish compared to 2% of the population, so they are overrepresented. If you round to the nearest percent, “Buddhists or Hindus” and Muslims each make up around 1% of the population, and around 1% of Congress. If you talk to Buddhists AND Hindus, they might have some thoughts on how they have been lumped together in this survey.

So, I suppose the U.S. is still a majority Christian nation, and certainly a majority religious nation, but the viewpoints of nearly a third of us are severely underrepresented by our elected leaders.

This survey did not address how many of our elected leaders who claim to be religious humans are actually lizards who drink the blood of human babies in the basements of pizza parlors.

more Philly stats

Brookings has a report on crime in Philadelphia, New York, Chicago, and Seattle. Homicides are up sharply in all these cities, but the overall crime picture is more nuanced. The actual stats show that while homicide is way up, other violent crimes are up only slightly. Central business districts are generally pretty safe, with violent crime and property crime mostly happening in residential neighborhoods. Nonetheless, office workers have an impression that central business districts are less safe than before the pandemic. I share that perception. This article points out that my perception may have more to do with the visible disorder of homelessness, drug use, and just general filth on the streets and on public transit. I witness all of this daily in Philadelphia. At the same time I know that these things are for the most part not a physical threat to my person. And I always try to remind myself that the person annoying me by experiencing homelessness or drug addiction on the streets of my city is having a much worse day than I am. Brookings has a solution salad at the end of their article – politicians, please do these things.

beech leaf disease

A new disease is threatening beech trees (Philadelphia Inquirer, paywalled) in the U.S. We don’t want to lose our beeches like we did our chestnuts. Beeches have some similar features in that they make up a significant amount of our eastern forest canopy (like chestnuts used to), produce fatty nuts that feed birds and other species, and their leaves serve as host plants for insects that feed birds and other species. It is not clear yet what is causing this disease, but hopefully we can learn from the cautionary tale of the chestnut and try to get out in front of it.

anti-aging pills

Anti-aging pills will hit the market in about five years, according to “an expert” named Andrew Steele. Metformin is one being mentioned. Another is a “combination of datasinib, used for chemotherapy, and quercetin, a molecule found in fruits and vegetables.” A Jeff Bezos company is working on “cell therapies that can halt and eventually reverse the process of aging.”

For my body and brain, which are both in their mid- to late-40s, the aging train seems to have left the station unfortunately. Maybe some of these things could add a few quality years for my generation, and maybe a lot more for our children and grandchildren.