what epidemiologists, virologists, and immunologists are doing

This STAT article surveys not what they recommend to others, but what they are actually doing. The sample size is 34, so I am not sure this qualifies as a scientific survey. But to summarize, they are ALL getting the bivalent booster. Almost all are wearing masks when they go shopping. Most are eating indoors and attending family gatherings, but they are testing first. Most are letting their children and grandchildren engage in more or less normal activities, but requiring or encouraging them to wear masks.

So, it seems at least this group of people with scientific/medical knowledge about Covid-19 are being more conservative than the public at large.

ESA getting serious about space-based solar

The idea of space-based solar has been around for awhile, but the European Space Agency appears to be getting more serious about it.

The Sun’s energy can be collected much more efficiently in space because there is neither night nor clouds. The idea has been around for more than 50 years, but it has been too difficult and too expensive to implement, until maybe now.

The game-changer has been the plummeting cost of launches, thanks to reusable rockets and other innovations developed by the private sector. But there have also been advances in robotic construction in space and the development of technology to wirelessly beam electricity from space to Earth.

BBC

Different sources say this could be commercially valuable in around a decade to maybe 2040. Even sooner with massive public investment, say companies who are hoping for massive public investment in their companies. Obvious Bond villain Elon Musk could not be reached for comment.

solar sidewalks

At first I thought this article was called Tampa tries sidewalk solar panels as backup power for traffic, but then I noticed it is just for traffic lights. This seems a bit underwhelming, but it’s something. Here in Philadelphia, the instant response to any idea involving sidewalks will be “yeah, but they’re private”. It’s a convenient excuse, just put the legal/financial responsibility for half the transportation system on the backs of private property owners and pretend that’s working. People can’t actually afford to maintain the sidewalks, and the government mostly doesn’t enforce the ordinance because that would be very bad politics. So aside from the occasional successful lawsuit, we get unmaintained sidewalks. So maybe if the sidewalks could generate a bit of revenue to help pay for their own maintenance, this could be a step forward. Just a thought – let the chorus of “yeah but” begin.

November 2022 in Review

Most frightening and/or depressing story: Asteroids could be used as a weapon.

Most hopeful story: A review of Limits to Growth suggests our civilization may be on a path to stagnation rather than collapse. Or, we may be on the cusp of a fantastic science ficition future of abundance brought to us by solar energy, asteroid mining (there are those asteroids again!), and biotechnology.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: I tried to put myself in Russia’s shoes and explain the Ukraine conflict, mostly to myself.

U.S. life span inequality

We hear a lot about health and life expectancy differences between ethnic groups and income levels in the U.S. This article shows those same numbers by county. Not too surprisingly, Appalachia and the southeast have some of the lowest average life expectancies. Heart disease and drug overdoses are major reasons why. The most shocking numbers though are from heavily Native American areas.

The article prescribes more exercise, healthier food, blood pressure and cholesterol control, and lower health care costs. Sounds good. In my opinion, high cost is certainly an issue, but it is really a proxy for access. We need a health care system that provides access to everyone, at least starting with basic preventive care. This is not particularly high tech. Let’s do it.

what to do about blocked bike lanes?

Some cities are considering a “bounty”, where a person reporting a blocked bike lane would receive a portion of the ticket proceeds.

I’m not sure the bounty is necessary. Even having the option of submitting a photo of a vehicle blocking a bike lane, including its license plate, and knowing the owner will get a ticket might be enough to get many bicyclists to do this. (and just a reminder that most if not nearly all bicyclists are also drivers at least some of the time.)

Other ideas include providing more temporary loading and delivery zones in residential neighborhoods. To me this is not an alternative, but something that is almost a no-brainer. Poor, unimaginative and ignorant design is what creates a lot of these conflicts in the first place.

The Texas anti-abortion law allowing any private citizen to sue a doctor who provides an abortion made me think – now that we have opened this door a crack, what is to stop any state applying this approach to any law. For example, pass a law allowing any citizen to sue a driver for parking illegally or running a red light. This seems like less of a stretch than the abortion thing, because if you are in a position to take the photo, you are being put at risk by the activity and you should have a case.

5 of Bill Gates’s Favorite Books

I guess this qualifies as my first “best of” post for 2022. It’s a bit weak though. Bill Gates, instead of picking his five favorite books that came out during the year, picked five books that he recommended to somebody during the year. He picked Heinlein’s Stranger in a Strange Land as the “best introduction to grownup sci-fi”, which I take to mean sci-fi books for people who don’t have enough imagine to consider reading sci-fi, but might enjoy it if they try. This is not one of my favorite sci-fi books. About all I remember is a swimming pool supposedly somewhere in the Poconos, and the audiobook reader inexplicably giving a key character supposedly from the Poconos and southern accent. Don’t get me wrong, it’s an okay book, but even if I were restricting myself to Heinlein I might pick something else, like Starship Troopers, which some “serious” people have at least heard of (and to be fair, Billy G. mentions in his post). How about Vernor Vinge’s Rainbow’s End, which depicts a plausible near-future and is extremely entertaining and mind-blowing.

The only other book I’ll mention is a biography of Abraham Lincoln, which might be interesting. Still, this list don’t impress me much. I’m thinking old Billy Gates just didn’t do a lot of reading this year. Can’t he pay people to give him the Cliff’s Notes? (Considering he has more money than any particular gods, couldn’t he track down Cliff himself? Well, I looked this up and Cliff was Clifton K. Hillegass, and he died in 2001.)

more on Philadelphia crime

The Philadelphia District Attorney has come under pressure for a drop in violent crime convictions. I generally support efforts to reduce arrests and trials for non-violent crimes, although a lot more tickets need to be written for speeding and reckless driving in the city – not doing this is killing people, both drivers and pedestrians, at alarming rates, and I don’t know how you can call this “non-violent”.

Nonetheless, the statistics on violent crime convictions do look somewhat bad, and the downward trend started before the 2020 pandemic so you can’t blame it on that alone. I like the data transparency that the District Attorney’s office provides. This, along with police data, could allow journalists to provide a lot more context on individual cases and short-term statistics than they do. I think they could do this without giving up the blood-soaked entertainment value that seems to be necessary to pay the bills in our messed up society.

a ship being built

It’s fun to watch construction cameras in fast forward. This is a ship being built at Philly Shipyard Inc. (and by way, you can argue whether it is lazy to use the abbreviation for Philadelphia and whether “ship yard” should be one word or two, but this is the actual name of the company.

Youtube

I learned from this (paywalled) Philadelphia Inquirer article that U.S. shipyards are not competitive in the market for international oceangoing cargo vessels. However, there is something called the Jones Act that requires domestic trade to be done on U.S.-built and U.S.-crewed ships. So this includes trade between the U.S. mainland, Hawaii, and Guam for example. This seems a bit inefficient to me, but I can also see an argument to maintain the ability to build technology domestically with obvious military use. The shipyard also has military and government contracts which, and so sorry I just can’t resist the terrible pun, keep it afloat. I am a dad after all, and I have to keep my dad jokes at the ready.

Fully Automated Luxury Communism

I think I made a post on this based on a review of the book awhile ago, but now I have read the actual book. My verdict: It was okay, but did not live up to the promise of its fantastic title. It stitches together a lot of disparate ideas and headlines to try to come up with a coherent big picture, and doesn’t quite succeed in my opinion.

Basically, the book forecasts a coming era of extreme supply made possible by a number of technologies. First, solar energy making energy abundant and cheap. Second, asteroid mining making materials abundant and cheap. Third, biotechnology making health care and food abundant and cheap.

“Fully automated” means there won’t be a ton a work to go around for humans. And this won’t matter if the abundant energy, materials, health care and food are spread around because there will be plenty for everyone.

“Luxury” means the supply will be so high that prices will be low or even tend toward zero.

Where “communism” comes in is that with supply so high and prices tending toward zero, the rich and powerful will try to ration and control the supply of goods and services to the rest of us so they can charge for them and get rich. So join me, comrades, as we the people must own the means of production in order to keep this from happening. Also, something about local business and worker cooperatives but I didn’t find this convincing.

A few things bother me. The first is the idea of “layers of limits”. Let’s say technology allows us to solve a lot of our current problems. Bringing in, say, ten times more materials from off planet may create a waste problem unless we can get the idea of a truly circular economy (i.e., 100% recycling of materials) going.

Second, this argument seems to foresee a sort of end of technological history. The government may fund a lot of basic research, but market discipline is what drives a lot of applied science and technological research from there. The government many things but it is not disciplined. If all our needs and wants are met, there will be no markets driving further progress. But history suggests that capitalism will always convince us to want more, and to consider yesterday’s wants to be tomorrow’s needs. This seems to be human nature, so unless artificial intelligence is taking over technological progress and pursuing it for the sheer joy of puzzle solving, it seems to me there will still be a role for a private sector.