from the Arizona Daily Star:
a new study warns that the lake [Lake Powell] could virtually dry up in as few as six years if the region gets a repeat of the dry spell it experienced from 2000 to 2005…
During the 2000-2005 drought, Lake Powell lost 13 million acre-feet of water and dropped almost 100 feet.
Today, the lake has about 13 million acre-feet left, said Eric Kuhn, general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, which is helping to oversee the study.
3 most frightening stories
3 most hopeful stories
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This interesting study included a computer model of how drought and agricultural practices could have combined to destroy the ancient Mayan civilization.
Conceptualizing sociohydrological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse
With population growth, increasing water demands and climate change the need to understand the current and future pathways to water security is becoming more pressing. To contribute to addressing this challenge, we examine the link between water stress and society through socio-hydrological modeling. We conceptualize the interactions between an agricultural society with its environment in a stylized way. We apply the model to the case of the ancient Maya, a population that experienced a peak during the Classic Period (AD 600-830) and then declined during the ninth century. The hypothesis that modest drought periods played a major role in the society’s collapse is explored. Simulating plausible feedbacks between water and society we show that a modest reduction in rainfall may lead to an 80% population collapse.Population density and crop sensitivity to droughts, however, may play an equally important role. The simulations indicate that construction of reservoirs results in less frequent drought impacts, but if the reservoirs run dry, drought impact may be more severe and the population drop may be larger.
3 most frightening stories
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3 most interesting stories
Here’s more on the worsening drought in South and Southeast Asia.
Obama is worried enough about drought that he stopped whatever else he was doing and issued a presidential memorandum called Building National Capabilities for Long-Term Drought Resilience. It’s pretty vague but basically orders federal agencies to work together on resilience and support for new technologies.
Also, according the Wikipedia, the difference between an executive order and a presidential memorandum is…there is no difference. There are different kinds though. I like that there is one called a “memorandum of disapproval”. I can think of a few people I may send those to tomorrow.
3 most frightening stories
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The El Nino drought in Southeast Asia appears to be getting worse.
While Thailand continues to block rivers feeding the Mekong and divert small volumes, Vietnam said it had recorded the lowest levels of the Mekong River since 1926.
Salinity in the Mekong Delta is a growing problem for Vietnam’s rice bowl and has been made worse by rising sea levels pushing salty water upstream.
Modelling conducted by the Mekong River Commission predicted salt intrusion on Vietnam’s main Mekong channel would reach up to 162 kilometres inland this year, which is nearing the Cambodian border.
A normal year would see salt intruding only 98 kilometres inland.
Thailand is hoping the rainy season comes in late May, but the current El Nino weather pattern has so far exceeded forecasts — meaning South-East Asia’s water resources and regional relations could be further tested.
I’m going to try picking the three most frightening posts, three most hopeful posts, and three most interesting posts (that are not particularly frightening or hopeful) from February.
3 most frightening posts
3 most hopeful posts
3 most interesting posts
Here’s a Straits Times story on drought in the Mekong basin, focusing on increased pumping of river water for agriculture in Thailand.
The Mekong, which originates in the Tibetan plateau, travels for more than 4,000km through China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam before draining into the South China Sea. It supports the world’s largest inland fishery, and is a vital source of water for agricultural communities in that area.
Yet it is also a contested resource. China’s hydroelectric dams to the north, as well as those being built in Laos, have been fingered for hampering the migration of fish and blocking the movement of nutrient-rich silt downstream.
Riverside communities suffering sudden, drastic fluctuations in water level they attribute to dam operations upstream fear Thailand’s plans will only make their lives more difficult.
So it’s fed by snowmelt in an age of climate change, then goes through several countries that are considering or in the process of building dams, then provides food and economic livelihood for a whole lot of people. It sounds like a dangerous recipe. Hopefully this year’s drought is El Nino related and will not recur for awhile.
By the way, shame on you Straits Times for using a picture of a drainage channel in Nakhon Sawan province, which is in the Chao Praya basin and nowhere near the Mekong. It doesn’t change the story but it just seems like lazy journalism, and when a journalist is lazy about one detail you happen to know about, you wonder what other details they might be lazy about that you don’t.