Tag Archives: election 2028

mayors, governors, and senators

In a random AI experiment (Microsoft’s Copilot in this case), I have generated a list of 2028 US presidential candidates. Here were my criteria:

  • Current or previous mayors of the largest 100 US cities, re-elected at least once. Alive and under 70.
  • Current or previous governors of US states, re-elected at least once. Alive and under 70.
  • Current or previous US Senators, re-elected at least once. Alive and under 70.

No, Donald Trump would never have passed this screen, and nor does J.D. Vance because he has not been re-elected to any office so far. But my reasoning is these are people who showed they have what it takes to win high-stakes elections, then perform well enough in the eyes of voters and donors to get re-elected. Sorry to the 70 and up crowd, but for the Democrats in particular it is just time for the older generation to turn over the reigns.

A few familiar names: One person who is familiar, Barrack Obama, would not be eligible. People who have run before and not done all that well (Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker, Tim Walz, Nikki Hailey, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, I’m looking squarely at all of you) should step aside and give others a shot. Marco Rubio and Rahm Emanuel are a couple household names that jump out at me from this list. Does anyone on this list actually excite me? Michael Nutter, best ever (and only really good) mayor of Philadelphia, your country needs you!

I also asked Copilot to help me encode the table as HTML, which it was able to do. There are undoubtedly better ways to add tables in WordPress, which maybe I will be smart enough to learn about some day. So without further ado, here is the list sorted from youngest to my mandatory retirement age of 69:

Name City/State Party Years in Office Estimated Age Role
Quinton LucasKansas City, MODemocrat2019–present40Mayor
Kate GallegoPhoenix, AZDemocrat2019–present43Mayor
Jacob FreyMinneapolis, MNDemocrat2018–present43Mayor
Pete ButtigiegSouth Bend, INDemocrat2012–202043Mayor
David HoltOklahoma City, OKRepublican2018–present46Mayor
Todd GloriaSan Diego, CADemocrat2020–present47Mayor
Tim KellerAlbuquerque, NMDemocrat2017–present47Mayor
Andy BeshearKentuckyDemocrat2019–present47Governor
Eric JohnsonDallas, TXRepublican2019–present48Mayor
Tom CottonArkansasRepublican2015–present48Senator
Regina RomeroTucson, AZDemocrat2019–present49Mayor
Andrew GintherColumbus, OHDemocrat2016–present50Mayor
Jared PolisColoradoDemocrat2019–present50Governor
Cory GardnerColoradoRepublican2015–202150Senator
Julian CastroSan Antonio, TXDemocrat2009–201451Mayor
Chris MurphyConnecticutDemocrat2013–present51Senator
Muriel BowserWashington, D.C.Democrat2015–present52Mayor
Kevin StittOklahomaRepublican2019–present52Governor
Brian SchatzHawaiiDemocrat2012–present52Senator
Alex PadillaCaliforniaDemocrat2021–present52Senator
Gretchen WhitmerMichiganDemocrat2019–present53Governor
Nikki HaleySouth CarolinaRepublican2011–201753Governor
Ben SasseNebraskaRepublican2015–202353Senator
Bobby JindalLouisianaRepublican2008–201654Governor
Marco RubioFloridaRepublican2011–present54Senator
Kasim ReedAtlanta, GADemocrat2010–201855Mayor
Cory BookerNewark, NJDemocrat2006–201356Mayor, Senator
Gavin NewsomSan Francisco, CADemocrat2004–201157Mayor, Governor
Scott WalkerWisconsinRepublican2011–201957Governor
Tammy DuckworthIllinoisDemocrat2017–present57Senator
Kelly AyotteNew HampshireRepublican2011–201757Senator
Michael BennetColoradoDemocrat2009–present60Senator
Brian KempGeorgiaRepublican2019–present61Governor
Tim WalzMinnesotaDemocrat2019–present61Governor
Chris CoonsDelawareDemocrat2010–present61Senator
Martin O’MalleyBaltimore, MDDemocrat1999–200762Mayor, Governor
Chris ChristieNew JerseyRepublican2010–201862Governor
Jeff FlakeArizonaRepublican2013–201962Senator
Barack ObamaIllinoisDemocrat2005–200863Senator
Mark BegichAlaskaDemocrat2009–201563Senator
Jane CastorTampa, FLDemocrat2019–present64Mayor
Rahm EmanuelChicago, ILDemocrat2011–201965Mayor
Mitch LandrieuNew Orleans, LADemocrat2010–201865Mayor
Kim ReynoldsIowaRepublican2017–present65Governor
Michelle Lujan GrishamNew MexicoDemocrat2019–present65Governor
Dean HellerNevadaRepublican2011–201965Senator
Mike DugganDetroit, MIIndependent2014–present66Mayor
Phil MurphyNew JerseyDemocrat2018–present67Governor
Andrew CuomoNew YorkDemocrat2011–202167Governor
Joe HogsettIndianapolis, INDemocrat2016–present68Mayor
Michael NutterPhiladelphia, PADemocrat2008–201668Mayor
Deval PatrickMassachusettsDemocrat2007–201568Governor
Terry McAuliffeVirginiaDemocrat2014–201868Governor
Jon TesterMontanaDemocrat2007–present68Senator
Heidi HeitkampNorth DakotaDemocrat2013–201969Senator
Joe DonnellyIndianaDemocrat2013–201969Senator

How weak was Kamala Harris?

Maybe it’s time to stop rehashing the 2024 and 2016 elections, you say, but I keep hearing people say that “America will never elect a woman”. I suspect being female, or black, or Muslim, or any minority, puts a candidate at a small disadvantage that they have to overcome through political talent. In other words, a female and/or minority candidate may need to be a little bit more talented than a white male just to draw even. Barrack Obama comes to mind – he was such a strong and charismatic candidate that his minority status didn’t seem to matter. Reagan and Bill Clinton were other particularly strong, charismatic candidates from my lifetime (seriously, where are the TV-cowboy-turned-governors today?) So the important question going forward is, were Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris just particularly weak candidates to being with?

One way to objectively measure this is to look at whether a candidate underperforms or overperforms other candidates from their party in particular jurisdictions. And on this measure, Kamala Harris was weak according to Nate Silver’s analysis.

One piece of evidence for this is her inferior performance compared to most Democratic Senate candidates. On net, Harris underperformed the Democratic Senate candidate by an average of 2.6 points and a median of 2.4. Yes, this includes three “Democrats” who were actually independents — nontrivially so in the case of Dan Osborn of Nebraska, who hadn’t said which party he’d caucasus with. (The independents are highlighted in green in the table.) Still, in the five swing states to also feature Senate races (highlighted in gold), Harris underperformed the Senate candidate by an average of 3.5 points, and Democrats won 4 out of the 5 contests in states that Harris lost.

So while “messaging” and policy communication certainly matter, the Democrats (and post-Trump Republicans for that matter) need to try to find strong, charismatic candidates. One obvious problem is that this measure is backward looking, requiring past election results to analyze. But that could be an argument for looking at candidates with past election results, like mayors, governors, and senators.

I’m an amateur here, and smart professional political people must be doing this, surely? Well then why have we had such poor leadership choices put before us in this country since approximately 2012 (sorry McCain, Romney, H. Clinton, Trump, Biden, Harris – none of you inspired me). In a country of 350 million people or so, there just has to be more talent out there. Either the incentives or the political gatekeepers or both are preventing them from running.