Tag Archives: technological progress

electric cars

This article argues that electric cars could be about to take off in a big way, and draws an analogy to the disruption of the cell phone industry caused by the iPhone.

In 2007, Nokia was the biggest and most fashionable name in cell phones, with an unassailable lead in hand-held technology. Things had been so good for so long that company executives saw little chance for any competitive challenge–phones were a tough business, they said, and Nokia was reaping the harvest of decades of hard work that no one else could hope to match.

That June, Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone. And seven years later, Nokia—worth a quarter of a trillion dollars at its apex—abjectly sold off its much-diminished phone division to Microsoft. The price was $7 billion, less than 3% of its former value…

On March 31, his Tesla Motors unveiled its long-promised Model 3, a $35,000 electric car that will go 215 miles per charge… In addition to GM’s Chevy Bolt, Nissan will produce a second-generation Leaf with the same 200-mile range and approximately $35,000 price; it will come in 2017. Before that, Toyota will deliver its Prius Prime, a plug-in hybrid; and BMW already has its pure electric i3. The other major carmakers are piling in as well by the end of the decade.

Before the iPhone, some of the best recent examples of disruption are the digital camera displacing the film camera (much to Kodak’s surprise) and the internet all but destroying the newspaper industry. And you could argue that these are no more revolutionary than the advent of automobiles, electricity, steam, and so on back through history. But the point is big technological advances happen in fits and starts on a regular basis, and will continue to do so however surprised and complacent we may continue to be.

Oculus Rift

Here’s an interview with the creator of the Oculus Rift, Palmer Luckey:

Luckey argues that virtual reality is a bigger turning point in technology than Apple II, Netscape or Google. VR, he says, is the final major computing platform that’s not a transitional step to the next big thing.

“If you have perfect virtual reality eventually, where you’re be able to simulate everything that a human can experience or imagine experiencing, it’s hard to imagine where you go from there,” Luckey tells NPR’s Kelly McEvers. “If you have perfect virtual reality, what else are you supposed to perfect?” …

Things like email, and Twitter, and Facebook, and text messaging — they all work reasonably well. But we use them because they’re convenient, and cheap, and easy, not because they’re the best way to communicate with somebody. Today, the best way to communicate with someone is still face-to-face. Virtual reality has the potential to change that, to make it where VR communication is as good or better than face-to-face communications, because not only do you get all the same human cues of face-to-face communication, you can basically suspend the laws of physics, you can do whatever you want, you can be wherever you want.

 

how to not pay for cable

There are lots of ways to watch TV now without paying for cable. Why include this on a blog about innovation? Well, I’m trying to figure out how Comcast is building a second skyscraper in Philadelphia if consumers really hate paying them for TV so much and there is a ton of disruptive innovation going on that would seemingly threaten their business model. The answer must be that big “cable” companies have a lot more going on besides just charging exorbitant rates for TV. I am a Comcast customer by the way, because they are the best broadband option on my street at the moment, and of course I can’t live without that. They charge a lot for it, but then they throw in basic cable and HBO Go for just a little bit more, so they got me. I’m still actively shopping for other options though so don’t get too complacent, Comcast.

F.E. Smith

BBC has an interesting article on predictions made by F.E. Smith, a British aristocrat. These were predictions made in 1930 for the year 2030. BBC calls them “strange”. A couple really are strange, but several of them either have come true or still could by 2030. If technological progress is truly exponential, then 2015 is too soon to rule out any outcome for 2030 – remember the old saw about the lily pond and day 29.

  • average lifespan of 150, and a cure for cancer – there have been huge gains in lifespan, but obviously nowhere near this; but it could still happen; I’m reading The End of Illness by David Agus right now. One of his points is that the discovery of highly effective treatments for infectious diseases (antibiotics, etc.) has led to a focus on disease as an invader to be fought, rather than a focus on the patient’s body as a complete system, which is what is needed for better cancer treatment. He is not optimistic about a cure, but thinks that with better prevention and early detection most people could live healthy lives to 100 or more. I am also reminded of Long For this World, a book about Aubrey de Grey, who has proposed a radical (and seemingly drastic, not to mention painful) cure for cancer that he believes could allow people to live for hundreds or even a thousand years.
  • a 16-24 hour average work week – certainly this is not the average work week for people who work today. But is it so weird? This guy probably knew John Maynard Keynes, who was making exactly these sorts of projections based on long-term increases in productivity (Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren). These productivity increases, and related increases on overall monetary wealth, actually have come to pass. But two things have happened. First, the wealth is distributed unevenly, so that some people don’t have to work at all, while others have to work a lot. Of the richer countries, a few in Northern Europe have taken steps in the direction of sharing both wealth and work hours, while the Anglo-American countries and emerging Asia generally have not. Second, as we have become wealthier, we have come to see some things as necessities that would have been seen as luxuries in the past. Air conditioning comes to mind. Robert and Edward Skidelski talk a lot about these issues in How Much is Enough.
  • a color TV in every home 🙂 which would lead to a return to direct democracy 🙁
  • synthetic meat – has already happened in the lab, almost certainly will be commercialized by 2030 I would think
  • new “physiologically pleasant substances…as pleasant and harmless…” 🙂 “…as tobacco” 🙁

Books I mention above (which I am not selling):