Tag Archives: U.S. politics

November 2020 in Review

Only one month to go in this tumultuous year. In current events, the U.S. election was obviously a major historical event, and Covid-19 continued to spiral horribly. But my loyal readers (all 3-10 of you worldwide…) don’t need me to cover current events.

Most frightening and/or depressing story: It seems likely the Clinton-Bush-Obama-Trump U.S. foreign wars may just grind on endlessly under Biden. Prove us wrong, Joe! (I give Trump a few points for trying to bring troops home over the objections of the military-industrial complex. But in terms of war and peace, this is completely negated and then some by slippage on nuclear proliferation and weapons on his watch.)

Most hopeful story: The massive investment in Covid-19 vaccine development may have major spillover effects to cures for other diseases. This could even be the big acceleration in biotechnology that seems to have been on the horizon for awhile. These technologies also have potential negative and frivolous applications, of course.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: States representing 196 electoral votes have agreed to support the National Popular Vote Compact, in which they would always award their state’s electoral votes to the national popular vote winner. Colorado has now voted to do this twice. Unfortunately, the movement has a tough road to get to 270 votes, because of a few big states that would be giving up a lot of power if they agreed to it.

mass incarceration

Maybe I’ve finally put my finger on what bothered me about Black Lives Matter. Of course I’m not in favor of police brutality and nobody should be. Police brutality is a huge problem for the people on the receiving end of it, and it needs to be addressed. Addressing it would only remove drop from the bucket of violence and injustice in this country. We need to identify and address root causes of violence and injustice, but maybe that is too vague a concept for people to be marching in the streets about. Mass incarceration is concrete – we hear the numbers frequently, the U.S. has 5% of the world’s population and 25% of the world’s prisoners. For every 100 or so people you see walking on the street, there is one American in a federal, state, or local jail. And some of those people on the street are on probation and parole. Add in friends and family of all those people, and a huge proportion of the population is affected, certainly enough to get a march together.

So what can we do about it? Just trying to reason it out, I would first identify things that don’t need to be crimes, and don’t make them crimes any more. Drug use and possession come to mind – unless you are selling drugs to children, you are really only hurting yourself and/or other consenting adults, and this should be dealt with through the health care system (we need a health care system!). Go ahead and legalize prostitution. Gambling is pretty much legal already. There might be other things in this category I haven’t thought of. Next, find non-violent ways to treat non-violent crimes. For example, address property crimes by taking away property.

Finally, you come down to just violent crimes, and violent criminals do need to be taken off the streets. But you can try to find ways to reduce and prevent crime rather than just treat the symptoms. Ultimately, as suggested in this Brennan Center for Justice report, the answer is to look at all those approaches and programs that have been tried on a small scale, follow the evidence, and then try to scale up the ones that have been proven to work. Things that have been tried include “deferred-sentencing diversion programs, pre-booking diversion programs, and alternative court models, including mental health and drug courts.”

This is hard, but unlike say, education, mass incarceration is pretty easy to measure and determine if we are making progress or not.

IT’S OVER! CALL IT, YOU PUSSIES!!!

Update: I wrote the post below (and the headline above) around 8:30 a.m. on Saturday, November 7, 2020. All the major networks called the race around 11:30 a.m.

That was a public service announcement to the news media of the United States of America as I write this on Saturday, November 7, 2020. I did kind of describe the almost exact scenario that happened in my official election prediction post the other day. The only thing is, that was my “unexpected” scenario.

In the “I told you so” category, here is what I said on January 31: “I think the odds favor Biden, a Democratic House, and a Republican Senate.”

It’s over. But Trump voters are going to have a hard time accepting the result. Before I judge too harshly, I think back to 2000 when I had a hard time accepting the result and tried to talk myself into believing the election had been stolen. I didn’t quite succeed – that election in Florida was essentially a tie, and the Bush vs. Gore case was so technical I don’t think anyone without a law degree can come close to understanding it.

You can find election coverage elsewhere, I think I have it out of my system! I’m sure I’ll have some thoughts about policy going forward. I think Biden will basically spend a year trying to deal with coronavirus, followed by three years of trying to restore the Obama center-right, pro-business, pro-war status quo. Republicans politician will convince their followers that these center-right policies are far-left, and the wheel will turn. It will be interesting to see if Biden runs for re-election in four years, and interesting to see who the Republicans put up. Please, for the love of Christ, not Donald J. Trump! But we will see if it is a more mainstream pro-business, pro-war, dog-whistle Republican, or if there is someone out there able to speak to the Trump base but with a bit more finesse and charisma. That’s a scary thought.

checking in on the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

Here is the status of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact according to its website. The website doesn’t say when it was last updated, however. (Seriously, that is always a good thing to add to any website covering current events.)

The National Popular Vote bill has been enacted by 16 jurisdictions possessing 196 electoral votes, including 4 small states (DE, HI, RI, VT), 8 medium-sized states (CO, CT, MD, MA, NJ, NM, OR, WA), 3 big states (CA, IL, NY), and the District of Columbia. The bill will take effect when enacted by states with 74 more electoral votes.  The bill has passed at least one chamber in 9 additional states with 88 more electoral votes (AR, AZ, ME, MI, MN, NC, NV, OK, VA).  A total of 3,408 state legislators from all 50 states have endorsed it.

https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/written-explanation

There is a ballot measure in Colorado however to withdraw from the Compact. I am writing this on Saturday, October 31 (aka Halloween), but by the time it is posted that measure may have been voted on.

This is an initiative that favors population-dense urban areas and gets us closer to one-person, one vote. It is a move in the direction of democracy, but it is always going to be opposed by elected officials who represent rural areas and rural states. So, it’s not going to have an easy road.

my official election prediction

There’s plenty of election coverage out there, so who needs this post? Well, I’ve been looking for one source of information on when the swing state polls close, what the vote counting situation is, and what the current poll/forecast situation is. I don’t see all of that in one place so here, just for myself, is some info.

I’m a little partial to FiveThirtyEight, just because I’ve been following them for a few elections now. There are other polling and modeling sources out there. I got poll closing times from 270 to win.

Florida

  • Poll closing: 7:00 p.m. ET (for most of the state including all the sizable cities, except that little bit of the panhandle including Pensacola at 8:00 p.m. ET)
  • The counting situation, according to 538: Despite their bad reputation from that election year that shall not be named around the turn of the century, they expect to have most or all results within two hours of closing. They count absentee and mail-in votes in advance, so they just need to combine them with live results and it should result in a more or less complete count. Unless things are really really close, like, you know, that one year…
  • 538 poll average on Friday 10/30 around 4:30 p.m.: Biden +2.2%
  • 538 odds on Friday 10/30 around 4:30 p.m.: Biden 66/34

Georgia

  • Poll closing: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: quick. They’ve counted mail-in ballots in advance. They expect overseas ballots to trickle in, but things would have to be really close for those to matter.

Ohio

  • Poll closing: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: They count absentee ballots in advance, then in-person votes, but they will still count absentee ballots received up to November 13. So if it is close enough that outstanding mail-in ballots could make a difference, news organizations won’t call it on election night.

North Carolina

  • Poll closing: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: About 80% should be counted right away, and more over the next few hours. But then they will still count ballots arriving by November 12, so same story: news organizations won’t call it if it is close.

Texas

  • Poll closing: 8:00 ET (locations in the Central Time Zone, which is almost all of Texas), 9:00 PM (locations in the Mountain Time Zone, which is basically El Paso)
  • The counting situation: Almost everything early on election night. They will still count ballots received by 5 p.m. the day after election day.

Pennsylvania

  • Poll closing: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: Oh, my beloved home state. Pennsyltucky as some call it, but that is completely unfair to the great state of Kentucky which plans to count 90% of ballots on election night. Under state law, we will not start counting mail-in ballots until polls open on election day. The process is supposed to conclude around Friday. Enormous numbers of people have voted by mail, including yours truly. Republicans will tend to vote in person, Democrats by mail. The state is about equally split (basically the Philadelphia metro region and downtown Pittsburgh vs. pretty much everyone else). So it could look like things are trending Republican on election night, but there will be enormous numbers of outstanding ballots expected to skew Democratic. Pennylvania will also count ballots received up to three days after election day, as allowed in not one but two Supreme Court cases over the past few weeks. Bottom line, it seems unlikely this one will be called on election night.

Michigan

  • Poll closing: 9:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: “a few days”. They will start counting mail-in ballots one day early, but are not expecting to finish until around Friday.

Arizona

  • Poll closing: 9:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: “most” on election night

Iowa

  • Poll closing: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: “most” on election night, and they are counting mail-in ballots early

Wisconsin

  • Poll closing: 9:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: “all results by Wednesday morning”

Nevada

  • Poll closing: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • The counting situation: expecting to get most votes from the Vegas area on election night, but counting all votes could take until November 10

Okay, so how might election night unfold. First, I went to 270 to Win’s interactive map. You can pre-populate it with a variety of forecasts from a variety of sources, which is cool. I stuck with 538. Then I turned all the states above into “tossups”. I gave Trump one bonus electoral vote from Maine’s second district, which I don’t know anything about or what to do with.

This starting point is: Biden 227, Trump 126 (remember, you need 270 to win)

Let’s do a scenario where things go unexpectedly well for Trump.

  • Florida closes and is counted quickly. Biden 227, Trump 155
  • Counting also goes well in Georgia. Biden 227, Trump 171
  • Let’s say things go well for Trump in Ohio (where he is a slight favorite), and news organizations are willing to call it: Biden 227, Trump 189
  • North Carolina is counted quickly and goes to Trump: Biden 227, Trump 204
  • Texas goes to Trump quickly and decisively: Biden 227, Trump 242
  • Pennsylvania: no call on election night
  • Michigan: no call on election night
  • Arizona goes to Biden: Biden 238, Trump 242
  • Iowa is counted quickly and goes to Trump: Biden 238, Trump 248
  • Wisconsin is not really close. Even with some outstanding ballots, let’s say news organizations call it for Biden on election night. Biden 248, Trump 248
  • Nevada is not really close, but let’s say there is no call on election night.

We are tied. We go to bed, and every politician in America from President on down starts running their mouth on Wednesday. Lawsuits ensue. But those votes from Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada trickle in during the week, and Biden has substantial leads in all three. It would take an extraordinary amount of luck just for Trump to get close to 50/50 odds.

Here’s a more likely scenario, so let’s consider this my prediction:

  • Florida is called for Biden around 8 p.m. The call is made by the same news organizations that called Florida for Al Gore precisely 20 years ago, but they are much more conservative (in the statistical sense, meaning looking for a higher degree of certainty) these days. Biden 256, Trump 126
  • Georgia goes narrowly for Trump. Biden 256, Trump 142
  • Ohio goes to Trump. Biden 256, Trump 160
  • North Carolina is called for Biden around 9 p.m. Biden 271, Trump 160. IT’S OVER!!!
  • I’m going to stop doing math now. Texas and Iowa go narrowly to Trump, but Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada pile on for Biden late Tuesday night or sometime on Wednesday, and the route is on.
  • It doesn’t matter if Pennsylvania and Michigan take a long time to count their votes, but eventually they do, and the route becomes a landslide. I’ll call 300+ a landslide, although it certainly falls short of the near-sweep (525/538) Ronald Reagan pulled off in 1984. Like the guy or not, that was a clear victory.
  • My final prediction: Biden 334, Trump 204

nuclear weapons are still out there

Stephen Cohen, a well-known Russia scholar, has died. His last book (I think) was called War with Russia? and was basically a reminder that nuclear war with Russia is still a distinct and very dangerous possibility. Not only have treaties and arms control agreements been broken and abandoned under Trump, but U.S. and Russian troops are engaged in violent conflicts dangerously close to each other in Ukraine and Syria, among other places. I can’t help noting that these locations are very close to Russia’s borders, not close to ours. Remember how we reacted to Russian missiles in Cuba? We have a double standard. Biden hasn’t talked much about nuclear weapons, which disappoints me, but at least he is a knowledgeable, responsible adult and things can’t get much worse under his leadership.

September 2020 in Review

Most frightening and/or depressing story:

  • The Covid recession in the U.S. is pretty bad and may be settling in for the long term. Demand for the capital goods we normally export (airplanes, weapons, airplanes that unleash weapons, etc.) is down, demand for oil and cars is down, and the service industry is on life support. Unpaid bills and debts are mounting, and eventually creditors will have to come to terms with this (nobody feels sorry for “creditors”, but what this could mean is we get a full-blown financial panic to go along with the recession in the real economy.

Most hopeful story:

  • The Senate Democrats’ Special Committee on the Climate Crisis had the courage to take aim at campaign finance corruption as a central reason for why the world is in its current mess. I hate to be partisan, folks, but right now our government is divided into responsible adults and children. The responsible adults who authored this report are the potential leaders who can lead us forward.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both:

  • If the universe is a simulation, and you wanted to crash it on purpose, you could try to create a lot of nested simulations of universes within universes until your overload whatever the operating system is. Just hope it’s backed up.

Senate Democrats’ Special Committee on the Climate Crisis

The Senate Democrats’ Special Committee on the Climate Crisis has a new report, Climate Action: Building a Clean Economy for the American People. It has a laundry list of the kinds of measures that are needed and that the next Congress could choose to act on. What is really interesting though is the last chapter, which is called Dark Money. It takes solid aim at the fossil fuel industry’s campaign to misinform, disinform, and buy political influence, especially following the Citizens United decision. On the page introducing this topic is a picture of our Supreme Court justices.

The Democratic Senators blame Republicans, of course, but the cirampaigns need to be funded too. They pretty much admit here that big business owns Congress, and the Supreme Court made that happen. Well, remembering my high school civics, the Supreme Court interprets the Constitution, but Congress wrote the Constitution and Congress can change it.

August 2020 in Review

Goodbye summer, hello fall (or do you prefer to say autumn?) in this weird and consequential year.

Most frightening and/or depressing story:

  • We just had the 15-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, a major regional crisis that federal, state, and local governments failed to competently prepare for or respond to. People died, and decades later the recovery is incomplete. Coronavirus proves we learned nothing, as it is unfolding in a similar way on a much larger and longer scale. There are many potential crises ahead that we need to prepare for today, not least the inundation of major cities. I had a look at the Democratic and (absence of a) Republican platforms, and there is not enough substance in either when it comes to identifying and preparing for the risks ahead.

Most hopeful story:

  • Automatic stabilizers might be boring but they could have helped the economy in the coronavirus crisis. Congress, you failed us again but you can get this done before the next crisis.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both:

  • Vehicle miles traveled have crashed during the coronavirus crisis. Vehicle-related deaths have decreased, but deaths per mile driven have increased, most likely because people drive faster when there is less traffic, absent safe street designs which we don’t do in the U.S. Vehicle miles will rebound, but an interesting question is whether they will rebound short of where they were. One study predicts about 10% lower. This accounts for all the commuting and shopping trips that won’t be taken, but also the increase in deliveries and truck traffic you might expect as a result. It makes sense – people worry about delivery vehicles, but if each parcel in the vehicle is a car trip to the store not taken, overall traffic should decrease. Even if every 5 parcels are a trip not taken, traffic should decrease. I don’t know the correct number, but you get the idea. Now, how long until people realize it is not worth paying and sacrificing space to have a car sitting there that they seldom use. How long before U.S. planners and engineers adopt best practices on street design that are proven to save lives elsewhere in the world?