A new data set aggregates sea level rise projections, of which there have been many.
Evolution of Global Sea-Level Rise Projections and Their Uncertainty
Recognizing this challenge, Garner et al. (2018)—hereafter, G18—developed a database of 21st century GMSL projections (A. J. Garner et al., 2018). An analysis of the G18 database generated several findings, including that the range of 21st century GMSL projections has varied greatly over time, despite central estimates being relatively consistent (A. J. Garner et al., 2018), and that upper estimates of GMSL rise from individual studies often exceeded upper bounds provided in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments (A. J. Garner et al., 2018).
Eight years have elapsed since the publication of the G18 database and analysis, during which two additional IPCC reports incorporating new GMSL projections have been published (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021; Oppenheimer et al., 2019). To accommodate these new reports and other scientific developments and individual studies (e.g., Bamber et al., 2019; Brown et al., 2021; Grandey et al., 2024; Hamlington et al., 2024; Horton et al., 2020; Palmer et al., 2024; Weeks et al., 2025), we have updated and expanded the original G18 database of 21st century GMSL projections. The updated database (hereafter, G26 database) includes GMSL projections published through 31 December 2025 for a wide variety of time horizons—including decadal projections with end years throughout the 21st century, as well as longer term, multi-century projections. Other updates to the database include the addition of new fields, such as the country of origin for each GMSL projection study. These updates allow the assessment of the ways in which sea level science has evolved in recent years, but also to perform new analyses that offer additional insights into the history of the science, providing vital context for researchers and decision makers as they contend with challenges presented by the numerous studies and methodological choices in a deeply uncertain field.