Five Thirty Eight has a list of who they think is currently serious about a run for President in 2020. It’s a long list. I’ve added their ages in parentheses.
- Lawyer Michael Avenatti (47)
- South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (36)
- Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (52)
- former Vice President Joe Biden (75)
- New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (49)
- former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro (44)
- Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (66)
- Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (47)
- New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (51)
- California Sen. Kamala Harris (53)
- Former Attorney General Eric Holder (67)
- former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu (58)
- Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon (61)
- former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (55)
- Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts (39)
- Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio (45)
- Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (77)
- Rep. Eric Swalwell of California (37)
- businessman and pro-impeachment activist Tom Steyer (61)
- Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (69)
To break it down a little:
- 20 candidates
- by age: 3 in their 30s, 5 in their 40s, 5 in their 50s, 5 in their 60s, 2 in their 70s
- by gender: 3 women, 17 men
- by ethnicity: 4 black or Hispanic people, 16 white people (from a very quick scan, and I could easily have missed someone)
I can really only say I am familiar with five of these names: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Eric Holder, Elizabeth Warren, and Cory Booker. At least there is some variety in the list. Maybe the DNC learned a lesson last time – not to put their thumb on the scale and try to force a particular candidate, rather than just letting the primary process play out.
Trump still has a number of challenges between now and when he faces one of these people in two years: criminal prosecution of close associates and possibly even family members or himself, possible impeachment by a majority Democratic House of Representatives, and possible challengers in the Republican Primary. It seems like a lot, but you have to admit Trump is a man who has tended to get his away against the odds and I have learned not to underestimate him.