This sprawling article in Ecological Economics talks about human civilization as a “superorganism” that exists only to dissipate energy, fouling its environment in the process. What I found somewhat interesting was the links it tries to make between natural capital depletion and financial debt.

Simultaneously, we get daily reminders the global economy isn’t working as it used to (Stokes, 2017) such as rising wealth and income inequality, heavy reliance on debt and government guarantees, populist political movements, increasing apathy, tension and violence, and ecological decay. To avoid facing the consequences of our biophysical reality, we’re now obtaining growth in increasingly unsustainable ways. The developed world is using finance to enable the extraction of things we couldn’t otherwise afford to extract to produce things we otherwise couldn’t afford to consume.

Economics for the future – Beyond the superorganism

I’m not sure this article has a coherent story to tell, but I find it interesting to think what kind of indicators we might be able to look at to tell if an ecological reckoning might be around the corner. The prices of food and energy certainly come to mind. Financial debt, if it is indeed a measure of how much our expectations of the future are out of line with our capacity to innovate and to produce the energy and other materials and find the waste sinks we need to keep going. But there is clearly a lot of noise and short-term fluctuations in all these signals that might make it difficult or impossible to come up with any kind of useful predictive index.