Tag Archives: 2022

Bill Gates on 2022 and 2023

This article is subtitled “My Wish for 2023”, but it is mostly about what the Gates Foundation did in 2022. He says the world moved backward on polio, but it can and should be eradicated, and we know how to do it. Infant mortality in developing countries can be reduced by using cheap ultrasound machines powered run by smartphone apps to identify high-risk pregnancies, stretching the limited pool of medical expertise (and it seems like this sort of thing could save money in developed countries if it could be done at home in combination with a telehealth session, at a pharmacy or neighborhood clinic say in a school or library, by a technician showing up at your door at a convenient time, etc.) He is predicting a gene-therapy based cure for HIV in 10-15 years. He says a gene therapy based cure for sickle cell disease is available now, but prohibitively expensive or unavailable in developing countries where the disease is common.

Africa in 2022

Since I neglected Africa in one of my year in review posts due to my relative ignorance of this entire continent, here is a summary of a post about Africa in 2022. This person, Andrew Korybko, describes himself as “a Moscow-based American political analyst specializing in the global systemic transition to multipolarity”. His voice is definitely not impartial, and yet interesting. Some brief fact checking confirms that he is not making things up, although he puts his own (Russian intelligence?) spin on them. Here is his list of top 5 developments in Africa in 2022:

  1. Africa was affected by food and energy price spikes, but this did not trigger widespread civil unrest.
  2. African countries were generally neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
  3. The government of Mali expelled French military forces and accepted Russian support (to glowing praise, in this author’s stated opinion, who believes there is a “Franco-Russo proxy war” going on. I take no position on this having next to no knowledge other than a vague sense that the current government of Mali came to power in a military coup and has been accused of atrocities.)
  4. A peace deal (according to this author; a “cessation of hostilities” according to Wikipedia) was reached in the Ethiopia/Tigray conflict.
  5. A new war is brewing in D.R. Congo and once again pulling in regional parties.

2022 roundup roundup

Finally, I’ve come to the point where the 2022 recaps and 2023 predictions are rolling in faster than I can deal with them in individual posts. Here are a few highlights:

Five Thirty Eight – “Numbers that Defined 2022”

  • The U.S. hit a record low poverty rate of 7.8%. This is expected to increase with the end of pandemic support programs. I would like to think that low unemployment and rising wages also have something to do with this.
  • 47% – “the percentage of Republican candidates who ran for House, Senate, governor, secretary of state and attorney general this year and didn’t accept the legitimacy of the 2020 election.” We know politicians are in the business of getting elected, but it is still disturbing that they are this morally flexible. If they have to be this morally flexible to get elected, then we have a system that is selecting the most morally flexible among us to lead us.
  • Inflation – 9.1%. We know, we know.
  • The Republican margin in the House – 9. Lower than expected for a mid-term election year, still probably enough to stand in the way of much legislative progress over the next two years. It’s amazing to me how quickly we swing back and forth from doom and gloom sentiments about one party or the other. They seem relatively evenly balanced, and the one thing that is certain is that the two of them together are dominant and creating a very effective barrier to major new parties or ideas breaking in.

Lawfare – “The Year that Was (2022)”

Coverage of what some people call “the blob”, also known as the military-industrial-intelligence complex.

  • January 6 – the trials and the committee; the Mar-A-Lago raid and investigation
  • “climate security” – in my view, the article somewhat misses the mark on the coming storm of drought, famine, sea level rise, migration and geopolitical instability the world may be in for. Then again, the article is a look back, not a look ahead.
  • The Ukraine war of course, and more broadly the U.S., NATO and Russia. Also the U.S. and China, of course. “Great Power Competition” seems to be a theme.
  • “massive protests in Sri Lanka, Iran, China, Peru, and elsewhere”. I admit, I forgot about Sri Lanka and I don’t understand the situation in Peru. And where exactly is “elsewhere”?
  • “Cyber” – a noun or an adjective? The important geostrategic conclusion is that it used to be adjective, but it has become a noun now and there is no turning back. Microsoft is an “integral player in Ukraine’s cyber defense.” (but that was an adjective right?)
  • Social media and content moderation. I just find it hard to get too excited about this. I still see the garbage on social media as more of a mirror of the garbage in our society than a cause of it. I am open to evolving my views on this. But one thing I never want is for my access to the world’s information on the internet to be curtailed.
  • The Supreme Court – overtly political, ideological, biased, and corrupt. Those are my words. Lawfare’s words are “high profile cases underlined the reality that justices are deciding cases largely on ideological lines. With a conservative majority on the bench, decisions led to an erosion of the powers of the administrative state and a decline in civil rights protections in cases where national security was at issue.”

Not mentioned – the ongoing grisly wars in Myanmar, Yemen, and various countries in Africa I am embarrassed I can’t name (Ethiopia?). Some new JFK-related files showing pretty clearly the CIA lied about its connections to Lee Harvey Oswald. Nuclear proliferation? The ethnic cleansing in Xinxiang province of China – does the U.S. press not mention this because we realize it would be hypocritical given our immense prison population, Guantanamo Bay, etc.? No, that can’t be it.

Project Syndicate – “Commentators’ Predictions for 2023”

  • Protests in Iran will continue, but the government will hang on. More broadly, the U.S. will focus on “great power competition” and neglect the greater Middle East. Turkey will have an important election in 2023.
  • “We are entering an era of high and rising debt, precarious jobs, a crisis of care, inflation, climate change, and food insecurity…” “Many scenarios that once seemed unlikely are becoming increasingly plausible, such as famine, sharply increasing poverty, mass displacements of people, cascading sovereign debt defaults, widespread energy shortages, and recurrent global health-induced disruption. All represent tragic reversals of progress.” (these are different commentators – please see the article for attributions.)
  • One thing everybody seems to agree on is that climate change is a big deal and in 2023 the world will continue…talking about it. Green energy technology and adoption will continue to accelerate regardless of government inaction, though.
  • Most people think Covid will continue to wind down in 2023.
  • Central banks may abandon their 2% inflation targets and settle for something higher if it means economies are growing.
  • Nobody wants to go out on a limb and predict that the Ukraine conflict will wind down in 2023.

Longreads.com “best of #5”

How can #5 be the best, you ask? Longreads picks a “top 5” posts each week, and #5 is typically something whimsical or offbeat. There are some real doozies here! such as…

  • The Secret MVP of Sports? The Port-a-Potty Yes, a long read about portable restroom facilities.
  • The Undoing of Joss Whedon Just another a Hollywood producer-rapist type, apparently and unfortunately. I could care less about Buffy, but I am a Firefly fan so this is disappointing. Hopefully we can separate the artist from the art in this case. Buffy and the female characters in Firefly could more than hold their own, as I recall.
  • What Was the TED Talk? Was? Are they a thing of the past? There were some good ones, but overall I didn’t have the patience for them and thought the point of most of them could be summarized in a paragraph or two.
  • I Lived the #VanLife. It Wasn’t Pretty. The author lived “the van life” for “a few days” and apparently wasn’t a fan.
  • In the Court of the Liver King. I already covered this one recently, but worth mentioning again because…oh my…
  • It’s 10 P.M. Do You Know Where Your Cat Is? Cats vs. birds. This article sounds like it is 100% on the side of the birds, but I have seen some debate on this in the scientific literature, with strong feelings on both sides.
  • The Google Engineer Who Thinks the Company’s AI Has Come to Life. It might talk and act exactly like a sentient organism, they say, but it doesn’t actually know what it is doing. Well, none of us can truly ever know the mind of another apparently sentient organism, so if it behaves exactly the way a sentient organism would behave, it is a sentient organism for all practical purposes. We might decide at some point in the future that it is obvious AI has become sentient, and then try to trace backward to determine exactly when it happened. Could 2022 be that year? Maybe, probably not? But maybe it is not far away? This seems like an important story.
  • The Weird, Analog Delight of Foley Sound Effects. Godzilla’s original roar was something like a cello in extreme slow motion, as I recall.
  • The 50 Greatest Fictional Deaths of All Time. Yes, Sherlock Holmes was the first that came to my mind, and he makes the list even though as we all know he didn’t die (we all know that right? Hopefully I didn’t just spoil that for you.) The Wicked Witch of the West, of course. I just tweeted that at a colleague the other day who refused to come out of her house on a rainy day, so yes she comes in handy. Bonnie and Clyde? They died in real life, in the same way they died in the movie, right? But when it comes to “best scene of people machine gunned in a car”, I would nominate the toll booth scene from The Godfather, which did not make the list. There are several horror movie screamers on this list, which I am personally not into. And surely Yoda deserves a spot? Ahab? Patrick Swayze’s character in Point Break? I mean, Jesus! No seriously, what about Jesus?
  • I Do Not Keep a Diary. Neither do I. Well, I did for awhile, but I called it a journal because diaries are for girls. Finally, I got over myself and started a blog, because exploring my inner thoughts about the outside world is more interesting than recounting the mostly uninteresting things that happen to me in daily life (I had Rice Krispies and an orange for breakfast this morning – are you bored yet?). And for the occasional interesting things that do happen to and around me, I can work them in.

The inflation numbers from 2022

FiveThirtyEight has a simple rundown of the inflation and interest rate numbers from 2022:

One of the most important numbers of 2022 was 9.1 percent. That was the inflation rate in June — the highest yearly increase since 1981…

Inflation has since cooled a bit, but as of November, consumer prices were still 7.1 percent higher than they were at the same time last year. And that’s affected the way families are celebrating the holidays. In a poll from before Christmas, 57 percent of those surveyed said that it was harder to afford the gifts they wanted to buy, up from 40 percent the year before. And 11 percent of respondents in another poll said they anticipated taking on some amount of debt for their holiday shopping…

To control this high inflation, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate more than 4 percentage points over the course of the year, to the highest point in 15 years. Most observers agree that’s likely to cause a recession. What’s less clear is how bad it will be, and whether it curbs inflation as it’s intended to do. These are the unknown questions 2023 is poised to answer, and why the inflation rate is one of the most important numbers of the past year.

FiveThirtyEight

I found myself dipping into what are supposed to be emergency funds to cover my family’s normal living expenses toward the end of 2022, so yes I can understand that people who were barely making ends meet at the beginning of the year might be in trouble at the end of it. The good news is that almost anyone who wants a job should be able to find one, at least for now, and maybe not at the level of pay they prefer. The real pain comes if unemployment spikes while inflation is still high. The hope for 2023 would be that inflation continues to tick down toward a “normal” level of say 2-3%, while unemployment stays in its low range of say 3-5%. If that is where we are a year from now, our economy and society will feel more stable although of course we will still have serious inequality and social problems to work on.

And by the way, does “growth” really matter if people are employed and are able to buy the things they need and a reasonable amount of the things they want? I don’t see why, it seems like a very indirect measure.

most popular words in home listings in 2022

I am a big fan of walkable urban communities, and I want to believe my fellow Americans would learn to love them if they just had more options to experience them. But an analysis of home listing keywords shows that what is selling is still big floor space, big yards, and garages.

Spaciousness defines home descriptions in 2022: Keywords addressing the need for more “room,” “space,” and an “open floor plan” were among the most used, aimed at ticking the boxes of space-deprived buyers. This universal need for space was also reflected in the frequent use of space-related adjectives, like “open” or “great.”

Curb appeal matters, but parking space matters more: “Garage” was the most-mentioned amenity in listing descriptions across the country.

Homes that promise a “patio/porch” or a “yard” might experience a boost in interest with these outdoor amenities still riding high off their post-pandemic popularity.

point2homes.com

Due to the tyranny of geometry, you can’t have lots of private space, lots of parking, and the density that allows walkability all at the same time. If we want to reduce car use, we will have to find ways to make shared public spaces as good or better than the private spaces people are saying they want, and we will have to find ways for people to get from point A to point B that are faster, cheaper, and more pleasant than the private car infrastructure they are saying they want. I would say safer, but almost anything is safer than cars and having non-deadly transportation options does not seem to be a selling point in our real estate market. The people have spoken.

To create space inside houses in the city, you can either go vertical or you can take it away from other land uses. Some people like high rise living, but the public by and large does not seem to want this. The next option to create space inside houses and for private outdoor space is to take it away from public outdoor space. This is what we tend to do in denser neighborhoods like the one I live in – some people are able to have small yards and some people live in exclusive gated communities with their own private parks. Public open space is extremely limited, in extremely high demand, and to a certain extent a victim of its own success (for example, because trash cans quickly become overwhelmed on the weekend leading to litter, bags of dog waste, and odors). So in this case, people who value large, nice smelling open spaces don’t stick around. The final option to create more space, both indoor and outdoor, public and private, is to take it away from driveways, garages, parking lots, roads, and street parking. People resist this because cars are still the most convenient way to get around, if you happen to have convenient parking. Public transportation, where it exists, is slow, infrequent, and gross. Biking and other forms of personal mobility, even where they have dedicated infrastructure, are not remotely safe. We know how to improve these things, but there is a bit of a chicken and egg problem where the public does not support spending more money or taking more space for them because they are so pathetic now. You could break this cycle by just fixing it using known technical solutions, but at a high political and financial risk. You could create pilot programs in certain neighborhoods where public support exists, but then you run into the gentrification trap because it is likely to be higher-income neighborhoods where that support exists. Or you can thrust it into lower-income neighborhoods where there is more likely to be public opposition, and that is also politically and financially risky. So we might need leadership with the courage to take some risk, and this is in particularly short supply.

538 – best charts of 2022

There is nothing in 538’s best charts of 2002 that truly bowled me over. I mean, there are some graphics and maps that are effective at telling a story about their underlying data. There just aren’t any types of charts or applications of old types of charts that were a big surprise to me and that I thought I would want to copy if I could. Just purely for personal interest in the subject matter, the one I found most interesting was the map showing how college football conferences are losing all geographic meaning. I find myself slowly being less interested in college football with each passing year, and this is one reason why. My team’s losing campaign, loss to the NFL or “transfer portal” of many of their best players, blowout of the junior varsity squad in the mid-December bowl game they were lucky to even be selected for, and lackluster recruiting class are other reasons.

Top Urban Planning Books of 2022

Planetizen has a list of top urban planning (and related fields) books from 2022, or to be more accurate, fall 2021 through fall 2022. Lots of fields are related to urban planning, like engineering, architecture, parks and recreation, housing, transportation, infrastructure, utilities, ecology, economics, and public health to name just a handful.

First, they have an interesting list that they call “The Canon”:

  • To-morrow: a Peaceful Path to Reform by Ebenezer Howard
  • The Death and the [sic] Life of Great American Cities by Jane Jacobs [yes, they got the title wrong – ouch!]
  • Design With Nature by Ian McHarg
  • The High Cost of Free Parking by Donald Shoup
  • The Urban General Plan, by T.J. Kent, Jr.
  • Local Planning: Contemporary Principles and Practices, edited by Gary Hack et al.

Anyway, here are a few from the new list that caught my eye:

I have reached middle age as defined by having a reading list of more books than I can read in my remaining lifespan (a long list for what I hope will still be a long life). So I am not sure how many of these I will get too. But knowing they are out there is useful in case I need to brush up on a particular topic at some point.

sexiest man alive vs. (hu)man of the year

People magazine still does their sexiest man alive bit, and the 2022 sexiest man alive is… Chris Evans. Who I never heard of. He appears to be your typical early middle age Caucasian actor/model type. So good for him. Meanwhile Volodymyr Zelensky is Time magazine’s person of the year. He appears to be your typical early middle age Caucasian actor/model/leader of the resistance type.

word of the year 2022

Merriam-Webster’s word of the year for 2022 is gaslighting. I appreciate this, because despite considering myself a literate person, I have not been able to figure out what people mean when they use this word. And I am not alone apparently. But basically, it is just lying, or intentionally misleading someone, or what we used to call propaganda. I concluded from the article that people say it to sound smart, but they don’t really know what it means, and it can mean a variety of different things. So now I feel less dumb when I hear smart people say this word.

Runners up were “oligarch”, “omicron”, and “codify”.

LGBT is now LGBTQIA. The Q can stand for either “queer” or “questioning”. The I is “intersex” – I don’t know what this means. And A can stand for “asexual”, “aromantic”, and “agender”. When I first read that I read “aromatic”. Well, people of any gender or sexual preference can be aromatic, sometimes more or less pleasingly so.

Sentient is an interesting word. To me, it is the ability to feel. It comes up in the context of artificial intelligence, but also applies to animals and babies, among other entities. Plants? I don’t know, they have the ability to sense light, moisture, salt, and nutrients among other things. Is that sentience? Sentience and self-awareness are not the same, which is interesting.

Loamy – farmers and soil scientists are aware of this word, if other people are just discovering it good for you.

Raid? It’s a poison you spray out of can to kill bugs, which aren’t sentient so you don’t have to feel bad.

Consort? This is a gray area between “spouse” and “hooker” as far as I know.