Tag Archives: decision science

“useful principles”

Here is an interesting blog post called “30 useful principles“. I would agree that the majority of them are useful. Anyway, here are a few ideas and phrases that caught my interest. I’ll try to be clear when I am quoting versus paraphrasing or adding my own interpretation.

  • “When a measure becomes a goal, it ceases to be a good measure.” Makes sense to me – measuring is necessary, but I have found that people who are actually doing things on the ground need an understanding of the fundamental goals, or else things will tend to drift over time and no longer be aimed at the fundamental goals.
  • “A man with a watch knows what time it is. A man with 2 watches is never sure.” A good way to talk about the communication of uncertainty. Measuring and understanding uncertainty is critical in science and decision making, but how we communicate it requires a lot of careful thought to avoid unintended consequences. Decisions are often about playing the odds, and sometimes giving decision makers too much information on uncertainty leads to no decisions or delayed decisions, which are themselves a type of decision, and not the type that is likely to produce desirable results. Am I saying we should oversimplify and project an inflated sense of certainty when talking to the public and decision makers? and is this a form of manipulation? Well, sort of and sometimes yes to both these questions.
  • “Reading is the basis of thought.” Yes, this is certainly true for me, and it is even true that the writing process is an important part of thoroughly thinking something through. This is why we may be able to outsource the production of words to AI, but this will not be a substitute for humans thinking. And if we don’t exercise our thinking muscles, we will lose them over time and we will forget how to train the next generation to develop them. So if we are going to outsource thinking and problem solving to computers, let’s hope they will be better at it than we ever were. A better model would be computer-aided decision making, where the computers are giving humans accurate and timely information about the likely consequences of our decisions, but in the end we are still applying our judgment and values in making those decisions.
  • “punishing speech—whether by taking offence or by threatening censorship—is ultimately a request to be deceived.” It’s a good idea to create incentives for people to tell the truth and provide accurate information, even if it is information people in leadership positions don’t want to hear. Leaders get very out of touch if they don’t do this.
  • “Cynicism is not a sign of intelligence but a substitute for it, a way to shield oneself from betrayal & disappointment without having to do or think.” I don’t know that cynical or “realistic” people lack raw intelligence on average, but they certainly lack imagination and creativity. The more people have trouble imagining that things can change, the more it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy that things will not change.
  • “One death is a tragedy, a million is a statistic.” I’m as horrified by pictures of dying babies in a hospital in a war zone as anyone else, but it also raises my propaganda flag. Who is trying to manipulate me with these images and why? What else is going on at the same time that I might also want to pay attention to?

the “end of history” effect applied to individuals

At first I thought that, since this article is from the BBC, it might be about arrogant westerners realizing the world doesn’t revolve around them. But no, it is about the idea of a person’s personality changing over time, and how you might take that into account when making decisions today.

To test whether the end of history illusion would extend to people’s personal values, the researchers recruited a new sample of 2,700 participants, who were asked to state the importance of concepts such as hedonism, achievement, tradition in their lives – before imagining their responses 10 years in the past or 10 years in the future. Sure enough, the end-of-history illusion was in full force: people recognised how their values had shifted in the past but were unlikely to predict change in the future…

“Both teenagers and grandparents seem to believe that the pace of personal change has slowed to a crawl and that they have recently become the people they will remain,” the researchers concluded in their original paper. “History, it seems, is always ending today…”

More seriously, the end-of-history illusion could place us on career paths that fail to give us fulfilment in the long-term. You might have considered that a high salary was more important than inherent interest in the work you were doing – and that could well have been true at the time. When you reached your 30s, however, those values might have shifted – now you might be yearning for passion rather than an enormous pay packet. “Here’s the problem: when faced with new career directions or job prospects, if we make mistakes in considering what we think will matter, we may opt to take (or not take) paths that we’ll later regret,” Hershfield notes.

BBC

If I think about a “bucket list” I might have made when I was younger, it might have included things like living abroad, starting a business, and skydiving. I have done one of those three things at this point, and I am no longer interested in the other two. If I were making a new bucket list today, it would still include some periodic travel, but with long stretches at a “home base” that is comfortable and predictable. I think it is always useful to try to imagine a “future you” looking back on a decision. Maybe we should be imagining two or three “future yous” and trying to make decisions they might all agree on.

Right now, I feel like I could spend a month or a year just sitting around reading books and maybe emerge as a whole human being ready for social contact again. But that is from years and years of overstimulation from work and family life with virtually no breaks. So that is one question I have, is our personality on any given day an “equilibrium” personality or is it partially a reflection of what has happened to us recently. I might not be classified as a “neurotic” person the first day after I get back to work after vacation, and then I might seem extremely neurotic on the second day depending on what is thrown at me at work and at home by other neurotic people and how much (okay, to be realistic, whether I get any) down time in between. Maybe, just maybe, my work and family life will calm down as I get older and my equilibrium personality will be able to shine.

accuracy of a model vs. its “decisional quality”

I like the way the abstract of this paper distinguishes between (1) the accuracy of a model as measured by comparing it to physical observations (always assuming those are an accurate or at least unbiased measurement of the true state of the universe and (2) the appropriateness of a model to be used in decision making. I find these concepts very, very difficult to get across even to scientists and engineers.

Ecological forecasting models: Accuracy versus decisional quality

We consider here forecasting models in ecology or in agronomy, aiming at decision making based upon exceeding a quantitative threshold. We address specifically how to link the intrinsic quality of the model (its accuracy) with its decisional quality, ie its capacity to avoid false decisions and their associated costs. The accuracy of the model can be evaluated by the [Greek symbol rho – I don’t know what they mean by this just from reading the abstract] of the regression of observed values versus estimated ones or by the determination coefficient. We show that the decisional quality depends not only of this accuracy but also of the threshold retained to make the decision as well as on the state of nature. The two kinds of decisional errors consists either in deciding no action while an action is required (false negatives) or to act while it is useless (false positives). We also prove that the costs associated to those decisions depend also both of the accuracy of the model and of the value of the decision threshold.

Ecological Modeling