Here’s where we stand as I write this on February 4, 2024. Most of the polling averages now include some polls conducted in January.

STATE	2020 RESULT	Most Recent Real Clear Politics Poll Average (as of 2/4/24)
Arizona	Biden +0.4%	Trump +4.5%
Georgia	Biden +0.3%	Trump +7.2%
Wisconsin	Biden +0.6%	Trump +0.2%
North Carolina	Trump +1.3%	Trump +5.4% (RCP doesn’t provide this average but I have averaged the ones they provide, some of which are quite old)
Pennsylvania	Biden +1.2%	Biden +0.3%
Michigan	Biden +2.8%	Trump +5.1%
Nevada	Biden +2.4%	Trump +7.0%

It is not hard to figure this out from the above numbers, but if I make a customized electoral college map on 270towin.com, the picture is awful for Biden, with 293 Trump electoral votes to 245 for Biden.

The “538 Politics Podcast” generally has been much reduced in quality post-Nate Silver and post-ABC buyout, but they did have this interesting episode (actually – I can’t figure out how to link directly to it, this is how shitty their website is now – but search for “How Americans feel about the economy”) recently about research on how peoples’ shock over episodes of inflation “decay” over time. Basically, the shock declines by about 50% of the remaining amount over the course of a year. So, even though the rate of price increase has declined, we are now feeling about 50% of the shock from the shocking inflation of 2022. By the November election, we will be feeling about 25% of the shock. Is this enough to count on? Certainly not, but even to realize this the economy needs to stay as good as it is now for the next nine months, and inflation needs to not go back up again.

With the Iowa Republican caucus in the books as I write this (Tuesday, January 16, 2024), stuff is starting to get real.

It seems like barring unforeseen major developments, we are headed for another Biden vs. Trump election. In the absence of any other information, I would just say look at what happened last time. Biden won pretty handily, and really nothing major has changed in any rational sense, except that there hasn’t been a recession, war, or pandemic (that has affected the vast majority of the U.S. public significantly). What there has been is inflation, and not just inflation but inflation following a long period of no inflation in many voters’ living memories. And that seems to me to be the one thing making the difference for Biden. There is just nothing else that makes sense to me.

Anyway, tiresome as it gets, we know it comes down to the “battleground states”. There were three states in 2020 with a voting margin of less than 1% (Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin), two within 1-2% (North Carolina and Pennsylvania), and two within 2-3% (Michigan and Nevada). That’s it – no, Florida and Ohio were not close. 7 states that matter out of 50 and some territories. I got these numbers from CNN.

Sure, it’s early to start looking at state-level general election polls. Sure, there are all sorts of problems with polls. Sure, other candidates could theoretically be nominated. Sure, third party candidates could affect the race. But the numbers below are at least averages of several polls over a period of time which might smooth out at least some biases, and they paint a consistent and deeply worrying picture for Biden at this stage.

STATE	2020 RESULT	Most Recent Real Clear Politics Poll Average (as of 1/16/24)
Arizona	Biden +0.4%	Not Available
Georgia	Biden +0.3%	Trump +6.6%
Wisconsin	Biden +0.6%	Not Available
North Carolina	Trump +1.3%	Not Available
Pennsylvania	Biden +1.2%	Trump +0.3%
Michigan	Biden +2.8%	Trump +5.3%
Nevada	Biden +2.4%	Trump +5.4%

I’ll try to update this from time to time. If I were much smarter, I would try to automate it. Well, I would like to think I am smart enough to figure that out, but it is just not close to the top of my project list.