Hurricane Otis, which just struck Acapulco last week as I write this, went from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane in 24 hours. This is scary because you can’t evacuate major coastal cities every time a tropical storm is nearby, and enormous damage and death can result from this, and it is becoming more frequent.
Anecdotally, we have seen an increase in rapid intensification of hurricanes in recent years. A “new study” (which the journalist does not name or link to, a pet peeve of mine) confirms this using data.
The study looked at 830 Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1971. It found that in the last 20 years, 8.1% of the time storms powered from a Category 1 minor storm to a major hurricane in just 24 hours. That happened only 3.2% of the time from 1971 to 1990, according to a study in the journal Scientific Reports. Category 1 hurricanes top out at 95 mph (153 kph) and a hurricane has to have at least 111 mph (178 kph) winds to become major.
When storms rapidly intensify, especially as they near land, it makes it difficult for people in the storm’s path to decide on what they should do — evacuate or hunker down. It also makes it harder for meteorologists to predict how bad it will be and for emergency managers to prepare, Garner and other scientists said.
Associated Press
Insurance companies take note of these things, and recall that the National Flood Insurance Program does not cover wind damage. If you live near the coast, this could be catastrophic for you. I predict the government will have to start picking up more and more of the tab for storms and other natural disasters over time, and this will gradually make us all a little poorer as we can’t afford to have other nice things, even if we don’t live near the coast.