Tag Archives: taiwan

America’s “ambiguous” Taiwan policy

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This article explains the U.S. policy of being intentionally vague about defending Taiwan. It is all about maximizing deterrence. Historically, the idea was both the deter China from any attack, but also to deter Taiwan from a declaration of independence that would be likely to provoke an attack. Going forward, this article suggests arming Taiwan to the teeth and encircling China by stationing U.S. forces in Japan, the Philippines and Australia.

I don’t know – not being a foreign policy expert but not wanting war or especially nuclear war, I might focus on convincing China that the U.S. is not a threat to them as long as they do not threaten Taiwan. And keep reducing our nuclear stockpile so they don’t feel like they have to keep growing theirs, and consider a no first strike policy.

Formalizing the U.S. alliance with other countries in the region sounds a bit NATO-like, and look how well that has been working for Europe.

Taiwan’s 2024 election

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There is an important election taking place in 2024 that affects people far beyond the borders of the country where it takes place. I’m talking, of course, about Taiwan. Well, the three (?) sides don’t even agree on what the borders of the country are, so we could start there.

Far be it from me to express any opinions about the politics of Taiwan. But it is worth watching because it affects relations between Taiwan and (Peoples Republic of) China, and this potentially affects everyone. The idea of a full-frontal invasion of Taiwan has always seemed far-fetched to me. It seems more likely to me that there would be some form of subversion, election interference (like we saw BOTH the U.S. and Russia do in Ukraine), confusion about who is in charge, shadowy paramilitary forces (Russia in Ukraine), etc.

I’ve always thought Taiwan must have the best counter-intelligence in the world. It must be a bit like Cold War Germany, where the two antagonist sides basically look identical and speak the same language. Only there is a lot of economic interaction, free information flow, at least some travel, and the two sides are not as far apart culturally as, say, Cold Water era Germany and today’s North and South Korea. (In the latter case, the two sides might look and speak similarly, the comparison ends there – certainly no free flow of information, travel, and very little economic interaction, so it is hard to imagine how North Korea could place spies effectively in South Korea). So how does Taiwan manage to secure its elections and keep its government from being a nest of spies? But somehow, they seem to manage this on an ongoing basis.

Taiwan war early warning?

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The belligerent rhetoric over Taiwan seems to have ramped up suddenly (I’m writing on Saturday morning, October 9). See for example this article in Eurasia Review (a publication I know nothing about this publication, couldn’t find out much about it online, and it raises some propaganda alarms as I read it. It credits “VOA” as the author of the piece, which would make it official propaganda assuming it is true.

U.S. officials have expressed growing alarm in recent days, describing China’s behavior toward Taiwan as increasingly aggressive and belligerent. The concern has been heightened by repeated aerial incursions, with Beijing sending more than 150 military jets into Taiwanese airspace over several days.

Eurasia Review

Here’s an article from something called “The Conversation” which also sets off my propaganda alarms. But Wikipedia describes it as “a network of not-for-profit media outlets that publish news stories on the Internet that are written by academic experts and researchers, under a free Creative Commons licence, allowing reuse but only without modification.”

Taiwan’s porcupine doctrine has three defensive layers. The outer layer is about intelligence and reconnaissance to ensure defence forces are fully prepared. Behind this come plans for guerrilla warfare at sea with aerial support from sophisticated aircraft provided by the US. The innermost layer relies on the geography and demography of the island. The ultimate objective of this doctrine is that of surviving and assimilating an aerial offensive well enough to organise a wall of fire that will prevent the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from successfully invading.

The Conversation

Sounds like a fun video game, or an unbelievably hellish reality. Let’s not let this happen.

but we’re ready to fight a war, right?

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Yesterday I concluded the U.S. is not ready for a significant disaster. But one thing we commit plenty of resources to and are good at is fighting wars, right? In fact, we are so good nobody will even mess with us, right? Not so fast. There is buzz at the moment over a war game that supposedly showed the U.S. catastrophically losing a conflict over Taiwan. Communications were disrupted immediately by missiles, drones, and attacks on infrastructure like undersea cables, and without communications the U.S. forces couldn’t fight effectively.

I’m a little skeptical. Why would the U.S. military intentionally publicize something like this? I suppose scaring a domestic audience into committing even more resources is always one reason. A cold war with China is a good reason for our military-industrial complex to keep sucking up 5% or so of our economy, and Taiwan is the most obvious flashpoint that could go from cold to hot. If brinksmanship or bluffing to sustain military funding is the game here, the risks are too great to play the game. Seriously, let’s not let this happen.