Author Archives: rdmyers75@hotmail.com

now witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational…pipe organ

The world’s largest (fully functional) pipe organ is not in a cathedral in Europe, or in fact a church or cathedral anywhere. It’s in an office building in Philadelphia, where I happen to work. It’s shame because it was part of a our Center City Macy’s which closed recently and it is not clear if the organ will need to be moved. Perhaps not if this website is accurate and still up-to-date. Anyway, I always had the impression it had been built specifically for the space it is in and would therefore be difficult to move, but I was wrong about that – it was built for the 1904 St. Louis World’s Fair and later moved to the Wanamaker Department Store here. So it could be moved again if it needs to be. With a pipe organ though, the space it is in is part of the instrument in a way, so if you move it that particular sound you got from the combination of the organ and the space will never happen again. It would be like moving your guitar or violin strings to another completely different instrument. Anyway, they still play it daily because apparently it needs to be played to stay in good shape. It rattles the walls throughout the building, which is cool.

I do have one more question – how common are not-fully-functional pipe organs and where are they? Maybe they are hard to maintain in good condition, and therefore for every fully operational one there are a bunch of old broken ones lying around? I don’t know.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wanamakers_Organ_at_Macys_Philadelphia_in_2023.jpg

Forest City

Forest City is a sort of boondoggle new town development in southern Malaysia, just across the border from Singapore. I think the idea was that people and companies would want to live there cheaply and commute or do business in Singapore. It hasn’t lived up to its promise.

Anyway, what caught my eye in this Los Angeles Times article was a tech entrepreneur setting up yet another seminar on the whole charter cities libertarian enclave city-state idea.

They have descended on Forest City to attend Network School, the brainchild of former Coinbase Inc. executive and “The Network State” author Balaji Srinivasan. In this troubled megaproject once envisaged to house some 50 times its current population, they’re conducting a real-life experiment of sorts with Srinivasan’s vision of “startup societies” defined less by historical territory than shared beliefs in technology, cryptocurrency and light regulation…

Nearly 400 students, many of them entrepreneurs, have so far made the journey to Forest City to study everything from coding to unconventional theories on statehood. They’re building crypto projects, fine-tuning their physiques and testing whether a shared ideology — rather than just shared territory — can bind a community. The price starts at $1,500 per month, including lodging and food, for those who opt for a shared room…

“We’re all getting jacked,” said Prad Nukala, a student at the school and founder of crypto startup Sonr, which describes itself as a “blockchain for decentralized identity.”

If there is any doubt, “jacked” here is a reference to weight lifting.

$1500 per month doesn’t sound bad at all for an all-inclusive month-long vacation.

Spain’s “solar power meltdown”?

This article in (paywalled) Financial Times is called “The Story Behind Spain’s Solar Power Meltdown”. But the “meltdown” turns out to be in the price of solar power following an extraordinarily successful implementation effort. So maybe it’s a meltdown for some corporations and their investors who created too much capacity in the short term, but it has resulted in abundant renewable energy, which has to be good for the long term.

The other issue apparently is that Spain and its electrical industry did not invest enough in their electric grid and storage capacity at the same time they invested in all this supply, and that has also caused issues. Recent blackouts have been blamed on solar power, whether that is really fair or not (this article says mostly no).

Spain may be sunnier than many parts of the US, but certainly not the desert southwest. I think the lesson here is that solar supply probably doesn’t need government subsidies any more to take off. It may need a level playing field, in other words dirtier, less efficient fossil fuels not to be unfairly subsidized with our taxpayer money while propaganda convinces us the opposite is happening. But the grid, vehicle charging, and storage infrastructure seems like it still needs government help to get over the hump. That is not where the political winds are blowing at the moment, but political winds eventually shift in the face of overwhelming economic forces. Just check in with the coal industry on that one.

Is the AI bubble bursting?

Apparently trying to answer this question is consuming a lot of bandwidth in the financial, tech, and even geopolitical arenas right now. Here is one answer from Larry Johnson, whose politics and past statements I do not necessarily endorse. Just to very briefly summarize his article: YES.

A few insights of my own:

  • The AI “hype bubble” has almost certainly reached a commanding height, and will pop at some point. This will probably be felt in stock market index valuations, which are dominated by a handful of large tech companies at the moment. In my lifetime now covering half a century, we have seen this cycle first with the personal computer itself and then with the internet. In both cases, the expectation that these technologies would super-charge economic growth in a few years did not happen, and led to financial market declines. Both technologies have in fact transformed the economy drastically, it just took a few decades rather than years. Things do seem to be happening faster this time around, I admit.
  • When it comes to stock market crashes, there is usually some precipitating event like the Asian financial crisis in 1997 or U.S. derivative bubble in 2007. The combination of technology bubble bursting and external financial shock seems to be particularly powerful. In fact, when I look back, I think I can argue the forward progress of the U.S. halted around that 1997 (financial crisis) to 2000 (Bush v. Gore) to 2001 to 2003 (9/11 attacks and Iraq invasion) period, and went into outright decline between the 2007 financial crisis and 2020 Covid crisis.
  • Apparently some in Silicon Valley thought the artificial general intelligence singularity was so near when the LLMs first came out, and that US tech companies were so far ahead of international peers, that it justified huge short-term investments in order to gain a first mover advantage that would then be insurmountable. This particular bubble seems to be popping at the moment, with AGI clearly not here right now, and perhaps a loose, emerging consensus that LLMs are a useful technology but not a likely path to AGI. So companies may have over-invested in infrastructure that will hurt some of them badly in the short term, while possibly benefitting us all in the longer term (think about 19th century railroads for a fairly obvious analogy).

So there is somewhat of a race here – will we start to see significant economic benefits of these new technologies before some external shocker hits us? This is the luck of the draw. It seems luck has not been on our side for the last 25 years or so. Perhaps we’re due.

mayors, governors, and senators

In a random AI experiment (Microsoft’s Copilot in this case), I have generated a list of 2028 US presidential candidates. Here were my criteria:

  • Current or previous mayors of the largest 100 US cities, re-elected at least once. Alive and under 70.
  • Current or previous governors of US states, re-elected at least once. Alive and under 70.
  • Current or previous US Senators, re-elected at least once. Alive and under 70.

No, Donald Trump would never have passed this screen, and nor does J.D. Vance because he has not been re-elected to any office so far. But my reasoning is these are people who showed they have what it takes to win high-stakes elections, then perform well enough in the eyes of voters and donors to get re-elected. Sorry to the 70 and up crowd, but for the Democrats in particular it is just time for the older generation to turn over the reigns.

A few familiar names: One person who is familiar, Barrack Obama, would not be eligible. People who have run before and not done all that well (Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker, Tim Walz, Nikki Hailey, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, I’m looking squarely at all of you) should step aside and give others a shot. Marco Rubio and Rahm Emanuel are a couple household names that jump out at me from this list. Does anyone on this list actually excite me? Michael Nutter, best ever (and only really good) mayor of Philadelphia, your country needs you!

I also asked Copilot to help me encode the table as HTML, which it was able to do. There are undoubtedly better ways to add tables in WordPress, which maybe I will be smart enough to learn about some day. So without further ado, here is the list sorted from youngest to my mandatory retirement age of 69:

Name City/State Party Years in Office Estimated Age Role
Quinton LucasKansas City, MODemocrat2019–present40Mayor
Kate GallegoPhoenix, AZDemocrat2019–present43Mayor
Jacob FreyMinneapolis, MNDemocrat2018–present43Mayor
Pete ButtigiegSouth Bend, INDemocrat2012–202043Mayor
David HoltOklahoma City, OKRepublican2018–present46Mayor
Todd GloriaSan Diego, CADemocrat2020–present47Mayor
Tim KellerAlbuquerque, NMDemocrat2017–present47Mayor
Andy BeshearKentuckyDemocrat2019–present47Governor
Eric JohnsonDallas, TXRepublican2019–present48Mayor
Tom CottonArkansasRepublican2015–present48Senator
Regina RomeroTucson, AZDemocrat2019–present49Mayor
Andrew GintherColumbus, OHDemocrat2016–present50Mayor
Jared PolisColoradoDemocrat2019–present50Governor
Cory GardnerColoradoRepublican2015–202150Senator
Julian CastroSan Antonio, TXDemocrat2009–201451Mayor
Chris MurphyConnecticutDemocrat2013–present51Senator
Muriel BowserWashington, D.C.Democrat2015–present52Mayor
Kevin StittOklahomaRepublican2019–present52Governor
Brian SchatzHawaiiDemocrat2012–present52Senator
Alex PadillaCaliforniaDemocrat2021–present52Senator
Gretchen WhitmerMichiganDemocrat2019–present53Governor
Nikki HaleySouth CarolinaRepublican2011–201753Governor
Ben SasseNebraskaRepublican2015–202353Senator
Bobby JindalLouisianaRepublican2008–201654Governor
Marco RubioFloridaRepublican2011–present54Senator
Kasim ReedAtlanta, GADemocrat2010–201855Mayor
Cory BookerNewark, NJDemocrat2006–201356Mayor, Senator
Gavin NewsomSan Francisco, CADemocrat2004–201157Mayor, Governor
Scott WalkerWisconsinRepublican2011–201957Governor
Tammy DuckworthIllinoisDemocrat2017–present57Senator
Kelly AyotteNew HampshireRepublican2011–201757Senator
Michael BennetColoradoDemocrat2009–present60Senator
Brian KempGeorgiaRepublican2019–present61Governor
Tim WalzMinnesotaDemocrat2019–present61Governor
Chris CoonsDelawareDemocrat2010–present61Senator
Martin O’MalleyBaltimore, MDDemocrat1999–200762Mayor, Governor
Chris ChristieNew JerseyRepublican2010–201862Governor
Jeff FlakeArizonaRepublican2013–201962Senator
Barack ObamaIllinoisDemocrat2005–200863Senator
Mark BegichAlaskaDemocrat2009–201563Senator
Jane CastorTampa, FLDemocrat2019–present64Mayor
Rahm EmanuelChicago, ILDemocrat2011–201965Mayor
Mitch LandrieuNew Orleans, LADemocrat2010–201865Mayor
Kim ReynoldsIowaRepublican2017–present65Governor
Michelle Lujan GrishamNew MexicoDemocrat2019–present65Governor
Dean HellerNevadaRepublican2011–201965Senator
Mike DugganDetroit, MIIndependent2014–present66Mayor
Phil MurphyNew JerseyDemocrat2018–present67Governor
Andrew CuomoNew YorkDemocrat2011–202167Governor
Joe HogsettIndianapolis, INDemocrat2016–present68Mayor
Michael NutterPhiladelphia, PADemocrat2008–201668Mayor
Deval PatrickMassachusettsDemocrat2007–201568Governor
Terry McAuliffeVirginiaDemocrat2014–201868Governor
Jon TesterMontanaDemocrat2007–present68Senator
Heidi HeitkampNorth DakotaDemocrat2013–201969Senator
Joe DonnellyIndianaDemocrat2013–201969Senator

How weak was Kamala Harris?

Maybe it’s time to stop rehashing the 2024 and 2016 elections, you say, but I keep hearing people say that “America will never elect a woman”. I suspect being female, or black, or Muslim, or any minority, puts a candidate at a small disadvantage that they have to overcome through political talent. In other words, a female and/or minority candidate may need to be a little bit more talented than a white male just to draw even. Barrack Obama comes to mind – he was such a strong and charismatic candidate that his minority status didn’t seem to matter. Reagan and Bill Clinton were other particularly strong, charismatic candidates from my lifetime (seriously, where are the TV-cowboy-turned-governors today?) So the important question going forward is, were Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris just particularly weak candidates to being with?

One way to objectively measure this is to look at whether a candidate underperforms or overperforms other candidates from their party in particular jurisdictions. And on this measure, Kamala Harris was weak according to Nate Silver’s analysis.

One piece of evidence for this is her inferior performance compared to most Democratic Senate candidates. On net, Harris underperformed the Democratic Senate candidate by an average of 2.6 points and a median of 2.4. Yes, this includes three “Democrats” who were actually independents — nontrivially so in the case of Dan Osborn of Nebraska, who hadn’t said which party he’d caucasus with. (The independents are highlighted in green in the table.) Still, in the five swing states to also feature Senate races (highlighted in gold), Harris underperformed the Senate candidate by an average of 3.5 points, and Democrats won 4 out of the 5 contests in states that Harris lost.

So while “messaging” and policy communication certainly matter, the Democrats (and post-Trump Republicans for that matter) need to try to find strong, charismatic candidates. One obvious problem is that this measure is backward looking, requiring past election results to analyze. But that could be an argument for looking at candidates with past election results, like mayors, governors, and senators.

I’m an amateur here, and smart professional political people must be doing this, surely? Well then why have we had such poor leadership choices put before us in this country since approximately 2012 (sorry McCain, Romney, H. Clinton, Trump, Biden, Harris – none of you inspired me). In a country of 350 million people or so, there just has to be more talent out there. Either the incentives or the political gatekeepers or both are preventing them from running.

7 philosophy books for beginners

Openculture.com has a list of where to start on philosophy. Perhaps I’ll add these to my retirement reading list.

They are as follows: Bertrand Russell’s The Problems of Philosophy, Simon Blackburn’s Think, the complete works of Plato, Marcus Aurelius’ Meditations, St. Augustine’s Confessions, René Descartes’ Meditations on First Philosophy, and John Stuart Mill’s On Liberty.

the AMOC tipping point

AMOC is of course the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current, and a new study summarized by Guardian suggests we are on a path to its tipping point.

Climate models recently indicated that a collapse before 2100 was unlikely but the new analysis examined models that were run for longer, to 2300 and 2500. These show the tipping point that makes an Amoc shutdown inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades, but that the collapse itself may not happen until 50 to 100 years later.

The research found that if carbon emissions continued to rise, 70% of the model runs led to collapse, while an intermediate level of emissions resulted in collapse in 37% of the models. Even in the case of low future emissions, an Amoc shutdown happened in 25% of the models.

Scientists have warned previously that Amoc collapse must be avoided “at all costs”. It would shift the tropical rainfall belt on which many millions of people rely to grow their food, plunge western Europe into extreme cold winters and summer droughts, and add 50cm to already rising sea levels.

I admit that when I am sort of lazily thinking about this, I don’t distinguish in my mind between the tipping point and the collapse. But they are different, as this article illustrates. The tipping point is the point of no return, but because there is a time lag between the tipping point and the consequences, the tipping point is going to be called in hindsight rather than in real time. And this is very bad for our increasingly short-attention-span species and civilization.

what’s the story with Musk brain implants?

Well, Musk himself has not volunteered for invasive brain surgery as far as we know. But some people do in fact have small electrodes implanted in their brains. I learned from Startalk that this has legitimate medical uses. If a person has brain cancer and would die without brain surgery to remove a portion of the brain, surgeons will implant these electrodes and monitor the brain’s signals for a period of time to understand exactly which part of the brain needs to be removed, and to do that as safely as possible. The ethics of this are pretty clear. Technologically, the next step after this invasive form of brain monitoring is to advance non-invasive brain monitoring technologies, which exist but are currently not as good. And after that, still in the realm of science fiction for now, would come the injectable nanobots that can connect your brain to the internet. According to Ray Kurzweil, that fabulous science fiction future is scheduled to arrive in 2029.

Now back to Musk and Neuralink. A person who had the technology installed about 18 months ago has chosen to speak publicly. The person was paralyzed after an accident, and this has given him the ability to do many things he would otherwise not be able to do.

a Neuralink-made robotic surgery device implanted the chip and connected tiny threads with more than 1,000 electrodes to the neurons in his brain. Now the device can measure electrical activity, process signals, then translate those signals into commands to a digital device. In layman’s speak, the BCI, or brain-computer interface, allows Arbaugh to control a computer with his mind. As a result, Arbaugh can do things like play Mario Kart, control his television, and turn his Dyson air purifier on and off without physically moving his fingers or any other part of his body…

When Arbaugh became Participant 1—or “P1” as he is often referred to by Neuralink employees and subsequent study participants—he joined a list of about 80 people to ever receive such a device. Brain chip interfaces have been a focus of neurological study for more than 50 years, and a dozen companies in the U.S. and China have been conducting limited human trials since 1998.

But becoming the first patient to get a Neuralink implant, in particular, is its own right of passage. For one, Neuralink’s device has threads with more than 1,000 electrodes, giving the device a much higher connectivity rate than most of the BCIs currently being studied in humans in the market. But Neuralink also places its electrodes in the motor cortex, the part of the brain that controls movement—a more invasive approach than competitors like Synchron or Precision Neuroscience, which also have ongoing studies of multiple patients. Neuralink’s device is also wireless, versus competitors like Blackrock Neurotech that require a wired connection from the implant through the skull to an external receiver for signal capture and decoding (Blackrock Neurotech sells a wireless processor that has been used for research).

So there you have it. This brain control (as in brain controlling something other than a human body part) technology is farther along than us laymen not paying attention might have thought.

August 2025 in Review

Good bye summer 2025!

Most frightening and/or depressing story: A gigantic incoming object could be the alien ship that will put us out of our misery. Okay, probably not. The interesting and scary thing is that as our ability to look at the nearby universe improves, we are seeing more surprising stuff. But how are we supposed to think about let alone do anything about a very low probability existential threat like this one? We are not even responding to the “somewhat likely” (nuclear war, pandemics) and “likely happening right now” (a climate tipping point leading to future collapse) existential threats in front of us. I suggested that the tipping point will be called in retrospect, and 2025 might be a nice round number for the history books.

Most hopeful story: No matter what impression we are being given in the U.S., economic forces continue to push towards renewable energy and electrification worldwide.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both: Designer babies are here, and the trend towards the rich and powerful accelerating their own evolution (and a few governments making this available to the masses) can only accelerate.