“all criminal roads led to Trump Tower”

  • Here is the New Yorker article on the Steele dossier. Basically, it exposes the largely successful Republican attempts to discredit Steele as pure propaganda. The truth is that Steele is an ex-British civil servant with no ties to U.S. politics, who runs a private investigation agency specializing in the Russian government. Apparently, it is common for politicians to hire private investigators through law firms in a sort of double blind arrangement, where neither the politician nor the investigator knows who has been hired or who is paying the bills. That is what happened in this case. First an anti-Trump Republican hired a law firm which hired a U.S. private investigator who hired Steele, and later the DNC and Hillary Clinton campaign took over paying the bills. The Clinton campaign never knew they were paying Steele, and Steele never knew who was paying him. The information he dug up was shocking, basically that Trump and his associates have extensive ties to Russian government and organized crime figures, and they are at least in a position to be blackmailed if they are not actual Russian intelligence assets. Steele took this information to the FBI, who started and supposedly are continuing a serious counterintelligence investigation. So the information in the dossier appears to be credible, and both the FBI and Robert Mueller special counsel investigation have it and are following up. So if Trump is a Russian spy, he is going to get nailed.

The article is long, but keep plugging through it and you come to the fascinating story of multiple investigations Steele has been instrumental in, including the one that brought down FIFA. And those investigations, which are completely disparate, keep leading back to Trump Tower.

Steele might have been expected to move on once his investigation of the bidding was concluded. But he had discovered that the corruption at fifa was global, and he felt that it should be addressed. The only organization that could handle an investigation of such scope, he felt, was the F.B.I. In 2011, Steele contacted an American agent he’d met who headed the Bureau’s division for serious crimes in Eurasia. Steele introduced him to his sources, who proved essential to the ensuing investigation. In 2015, the Justice Department indicted fourteen people in connection with a hundred and fifty million dollars in bribes and kickbacks. One of them was Chuck Blazer, a top fifa official who had embezzled a fortune from the organization and became an informant for the F.B.I. Blazer had an eighteen-thousand-dollar-per-month apartment in Trump Tower, a few floors down from Trump’s residence.

Nobody had alleged that Trump knew of any fifa crimes, but Steele soon came across Trump Tower again. Several years ago, the F.B.I. hired Steele to help crack an international gambling and money-laundering ring purportedly run by a suspected Russian organized-crime figure named Alimzhan Tokhtakhounov. The syndicate was based in an apartment in Trump Tower. Eventually, federal officials indicted more than thirty co-conspirators for financial crimes. Tokhtakhounov, though, eluded arrest, becoming a fugitive. Interpol issued a “red notice” calling for his arrest. But, in the fall of 2013, he showed up at the Miss Universe contest in Moscow—and sat near the pageant’s owner, Donald Trump.

“It was as if all criminal roads led to Trump Tower,” Steele told friends.

So there you have it. It appears Trump is an international criminal mastermind, a Professor Moriarty, except that Professor Moriarty never got himself elected Queen.

Silicon Valley executives and their chickens

Tech company executives have a new hobby – keeping chickens.

Michel uses “Coop Tender,” a system that allows owners to control their coops via smartphone, dictating temperature, ventilation and lighting.

The system includes an automatic door and “predator motion detection” that turns on a security light and sends owners a text when danger lurks. Despite their relative privilege, even these chickens are circled by predators like hawks, coyotes, raccoons and bobcats.

February 2018 in Review

Most frightening stories:

  • A general rule across many types of wildlife is that their range after urbanization decreases to between one-half and one-third of what it was before urbanization.
  • The Cuban sonic attacks are real. At least, the people who experienced them have real brain damage, even if we still don’t know what technology did the damage.
  • Cape Town will probably not be the last major city to run out of water.

Most hopeful stories:

Most interesting stories, that were not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps were a mixture of both:

what’s going on with parking in Australia

This article summarizes the problems with free parking pretty well. Then it goes on to lament that Australian cities aren’t moving faster to implement the policies that planners and engineers know (or should know) would work.

The third major approach is characterised as responsive. This approach is based around pricing parking to account more accurately for actual demand, to incentivise use of active and sustainable modes of transport, and advocating generally for more efficient publicly-shared spaces (not exclusively used by cars) and area-based planning. It can be said to include Donald Shoup’s well-known reforms, as well as Paul Barter’s adaptive and walkable parking reforms…

Parking can directly compromise the adoption of active and sustainable modes of transport. Firstly, free and easily accessible parking contributes to induced driving and car ownership. For example, researchers from Oslo’s Institute of Transport Economics found that access to private household parking facilities triples the likelihood of car ownership, whereas increasing the distance between parking and destinations reduces car mode share. This means planners must disincentivize convenience (including factors of distance, time and pricing), and reduce its domination of urban space. Secondly, on-street parking can directly compete for limited road space, inhibiting the ability to reallocate street space to improved pedestrian or cycling infrastructure (such as bicycle lanes), or to create priority lanes for road-based public transport (such as buses or trams). Additionally, on-street parking spurs congestion from “cruising” for parking spaces, and movements in and out of spaces, and well as increasing the risk of “dooring” cyclists.

 

more on lottery winners

I followed up on a link in yesterday’s story about lottery winners. In 2017 a group publishing in the Columbia Journalism Review submitted Freedom of Information Act requests to basically all the U.S. state lotteries and analyzed all the data they were able to get. The results are really surprising, verging on basically impossible.

  • Clarance Jones of Lynn, Massachusetts, the nation’s most frequent winner, claimed more than 7,300 tickets worth $600 or more in only six years.
  • Jones would have had to spend at least $300 million to have a 1-in-10 million chance of winning so often, according to a statistician we consulted at the University of California, Berkeley. (Jones did not respond to requests for comment.)
  • The odds are extraordinary even for winners with far smaller win tallies. According to the analysis, Nadine Vukovich, Pennsylvania’s most frequent winner, would have had to spend $7.8 million to have a 1-in-10 million chance of winning her 209 tickets worth $600 or more.

What could explain any of this? I don’t know, of course. But here are a few explanations that would fit the evidence.

  1. Psychic powers, or just straight up magic. Let’s rule this out.
  2. The data is flawed and/or the analysis of the data is flawed. An intern filled down the same name next to all the winning numbers in a spreadsheet. Something like this seems likely.
  3. Corruption. Certainly plausible.
  4. Computer bugs or computer hacking. This does not seem impossible to me. A pseudo-random number generator could be programmed wrong, using a seed that is predictable somehow. Or someone stole the code and figured out the seed. This has happened with slot machines. I don’t know how similar lottery machines are to slot machines but they would seem similar.
  5. People are figuring out ways to exploit certain obscure, flawed games. We know this has happened. The people who run the lottery know this too, and it is hard to imagine them making these mistakes often, and not correcting them quickly when they occasionally do.
  6. Shadowy crime syndicates, corporations, middle eastern princes, Russian oligarchs, Professor Moriarty (etc.) are funding corruption and/or exploiting flaws on a large scale and/or hacking into lottery computers. The world is not what it seems, and if you are not one of the chosen few you are just another victim plugged into the blood-sucking matrix.

I’d place most of my bets on #2 and #3, and a small side bet on #4 or #5.