The City of Las Vegas has announced it is going to 100% renewable energy by 2017, with the majority coming from large-scale, centralized solar. Obviously it is very sunny there in Nevada, but I still think this could be a watershed moment in the U.S. The skeptics won’t be convinced though until the shift is all but over.
refugee cities
This post makes a case for establishing cities for refugees rather than “camps”.
Second, the world now has 60 million refugees. That is a number roughly the size of six Belgiums, Hungarys, or Swedens. If they were to create their own country, it would be the size of France. In the face of such staggering numbers, commitments to take thousands or even tens of thousands of people will do almost nothing to alleviate the misery of millions.
Rather than conflating the issues of refugees and terrorism, politicians and policymakers should be addressing each separately. On the question of refugees, Western countries should take in as many as their populations can assimilate, demonstrating a willingness to make good on the universal values they profess for both moral and political reasons.
But the world also needs far bolder solutions than twentieth-century approaches like limited asylum quotas and “temporary” refugee camps. In particular, it is time to embrace the prospect not of camps but of cities – places where up to a million refugees of any particular nationality can live safely and learn how to build a better future.
This reminds me a little of Paul Romer’s “charter cities”. The idea was to create entirely new city states focused on economic growth that people from anywhere in the world could opt into, provided they agreed to certain norms of behavior. I find the idea compelling, although Romer’s attempts to realize it on the ground in Honduras ended up on the rocks. You can argue that Singapore developed somewhat along these lines, although it was not founded based on this ideology (in fact, it was not even founded voluntarily, but just sort of cast adrift.)
word clouds in R
Here’s a step-by-step guide to word clouds and other ways of analyzing text in R. And here are some examples applying some of those ideas to presidential candidate debates.
car dealers sabotaging electric cars
The New York Times says car dealers are actively subverting peoples’ attempts to buy electric cars, even when they really want them. One reason they cite is that electric cars need less service like oil changes, and dealerships actually make a lot more money from service than from sales. This may be a rational explanation. But part of the explanation may also be that people can get sucked into longstanding institutional cultures even when they are highly irrational. I face this quite often in my work, and I have faced it around the world – groups of people can be incredibly motivated to defend the status quo, even in the face of incontrovertible evidence that there are better ways, and even when the people in question are young, intellgient, well-educated and well-intentioned. Sometimes the facts just do not matter. I don’t have the answer to this, if you do please let me know.
Low-cost solution to the grid reliability problem
I have heard from know-it-alls that the problem with renewable energy is that it is intermittent and hard to store. I have always thought there are many ways to deal with that – charge a battery, pump water uphill, heat something, wind a spring, compress air, electrolyze water into hydrogen and charge a fuel cell. Those are my thoughts with absolutely no expertise at all, but luckily the experts are thinking about this too:
This study addresses the greatest concern facing the large-scale integration of wind, water, and solar (WWS) into a power grid: the high cost of avoiding load loss caused by WWS variability and uncertainty. It uses a new grid integration model and finds low-cost, no-load-loss, nonunique solutions to this problem on electrification of all US energy sectors (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) while accounting for wind and solar time series data from a 3D global weather model that simulates extreme events and competition among wind turbines for available kinetic energy. Solutions are obtained by prioritizing storage for heat (in soil and water); cold (in ice and water); and electricity (in phase-change materials, pumped hydro, hydropower, and hydrogen), and using demand response. No natural gas, biofuels, nuclear power, or stationary batteries are needed. The resulting 2050–2055 US electricity social cost for a full system is much less than for fossil fuels. These results hold for many conditions, suggesting that low-cost, reliable 100% WWS systems should work many places worldwide.
Peter Checkland
Peter Checkland is another system thinker that I have just discovered. Apparently he is well-known, but I find that systems thinkers are buried in a variety of disciplines, in this case management, and I wasn’t looking there.
This is from a 2000 journal article, Soft Systems Methodology: A Thirty Year Retrospective:
Although the history of thought reveals a number of holistic thinkers — Aristotle, Marx, Husserl among them — it was only in the 1950s that any version of holistic thinking became institutionalized. The kind of holistic thinking which then came to the fore, and was the concern of a newly created organization, was that which makes explicit use of the concept of ‘system’, and today it is ‘systems thinking’ in its various forms which would be taken to be the very paradigm of thinking holistically. In 1954, as recounted in Chapter 3 of Systems Thinking, Systems Practice, only one kind of systems thinking was on the table: the development of a mathematically expressed general theory of systems. It was supposed that this would provide a meta-level language and theory in which the problems of many different disciplines could be expressed and solved; and it was hoped that doing this would help to promote the unity of science.
These were the aspirations of the pioneers, but looking back from 1999 we can see that the project has not succeeded. The literature contains very little of the kind of outcomes anticipated by the founders of the Society for General Systems Research; and scholars in the many subject areas to which a holistic approach is relevant have been understandably reluctant to see their pet subject as simply one more example of some broader ‘general system’!
But the fact that general systems theory (GST) has failed in its application does not mean that systems thinking itself has failed. It has in fact flourished in several different ways which were not anticipated in 1954. There has been development of systems ideas as such, development of the use of systems ideas in particular subject areas, and combinations of the two. The development in the 1970s by Maturana and Varela (1980) of the concept of a system whose elements generate the system itself provided a way of capturing the essence of an autonomous living system without resorting to use of an observer’s notions of ‘purpose’, ‘goal’, ‘information processing’ or ‘function’. (This contrasts with the theory in Miller’s Living Systems (1978), which provides a general model of a living entity expressed in the language of an observer, so that what makes the entity autonomous is not central to the theory.) This provides a good example of the further development of systems ideas as such. The rethinking, by Chorley and Kennedy (1971), of physical geography as the study of the dynamics of systems of four kinds, is an example of the use of systems thinking to illuminate a particular subject area.
It’s sad to me to see his contention that general systems theory has failed. It should be a central, foundational body of knowledge that people are trained in before they apply their focus to narrower fields. I have said many times, this would give a wider variety of intelligent people a shared body of knowledge, vocabulary, and respect for each other’s pursuits, and might accelerate the pace of innovation.
Holmes
Some people say your first Sherlock Holmes book should be The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes. But I am really enjoying A Study in Scarlet, the very first novel where the characters are introduced. Watson is convalescing after a war injury in Afghanistan and decides to take on a roommate to save money. And that roommate turns out to be Sherlock Holmes. The descriptions of Watson discovering his personality are really fascinating. At this point he doesn’t know that Holmes is a detective, and is too polite to ask. I pulled this from Project Gutenberg, where you can download a public domain HTML or e-reader version:
He was not studying medicine. He had himself, in reply to a question, confirmed Stamford’s opinion upon that point. Neither did he appear to have pursued any course of reading which might fit him for a degree in science or any other recognized portal which would give him an entrance into the learned world. Yet his zeal for certain studies was remarkable, and within eccentric limits his knowledge was so extraordinarily ample and minute that his observations have fairly astounded me. Surely no man would work so hard or attain such precise information unless he had some definite end in view. Desultory readers are seldom remarkable for the exactness of their learning. No man burdens his mind with small matters unless he has some very good reason for doing so.
His ignorance was as remarkable as his knowledge. Of contemporary literature, philosophy and politics he appeared to know next to nothing. Upon my quoting Thomas Carlyle, he inquired in the naivest way who he might be and what he had done. My surprise reached a climax, however, when I found incidentally that he was ignorant of the Copernican Theory and of the composition of the Solar System. That any civilized human being in this nineteenth century should not be aware that the earth travelled round the sun appeared to be to me such an extraordinary fact that I could hardly realize it.
“You appear to be astonished,” he said, smiling at my expression of surprise. “Now that I do know it I shall do my best to forget it.”
“To forget it!”
“You see,” he explained, “I consider that a man’s brain originally is like a little empty attic, and you have to stock it with such furniture as you choose. A fool takes in all the lumber of every sort that he comes across, so that the knowledge which might be useful to him gets crowded out, or at best is jumbled up with a lot of other things so that he has a difficulty in laying his hands upon it. Now the skilful workman is very careful indeed as to what he takes into his brain-attic. He will have nothing but the tools which may help him in doing his work, but of these he has a large assortment, and all in the most perfect order. It is a mistake to think that that little room has elastic walls and can distend to any extent. Depend upon it there comes a time when for every addition of knowledge you forget something that you knew before. It is of the highest importance, therefore, not to have useless facts elbowing out the useful ones.”
“But the Solar System!” I protested.
“What the deuce is it to me?” he interrupted impatiently; “you say that we go round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or to my work.”
I was on the point of asking him what that work might be, but something in his manner showed me that the question would be an unwelcome one. I pondered over our short conversation, however, and endeavoured to draw my deductions from it. He said that he would acquire no knowledge which did not bear upon his object. Therefore all the knowledge which he possessed was such as would be useful to him. I enumerated in my own mind all the various points upon which he had shown me that he was exceptionally well-informed. I even took a pencil and jotted them down. I could not help smiling at the document when I had completed it. It ran in this way—
SHERLOCK HOLMES—his limits.
1. Knowledge of Literature.—Nil. 2. Philosophy.—Nil. 3. Astronomy.—Nil. 4. Politics.—Feeble. 5. Botany.—Variable. Well up in belladonna, opium, and poisons generally. Knows nothing of practical gardening. 6. Geology.—Practical, but limited. Tells at a glance different soils from each other. After walks has shown me splashes upon his trousers, and told me by their colour and consistence in what part of London he had received them. 7. Chemistry.—Profound. 8. Anatomy.—Accurate, but unsystematic. 9. Sensational Literature.—Immense. He appears to know every detail of every horror perpetrated in the century. 10. Plays the violin well. 11. Is an expert singlestick player, boxer, and swordsman. 12. Has a good practical knowledge of British law.When I had got so far in my list I threw it into the fire in despair. “If I can only find what the fellow is driving at by reconciling all these accomplishments, and discovering a calling which needs them all,” I said to myself, “I may as well give up the attempt at once.”
I see that I have alluded above to his powers upon the violin. These were very remarkable, but as eccentric as all his other accomplishments. That he could play pieces, and difficult pieces, I knew well, because at my request he has played me some of Mendelssohn’s Lieder, and other favourites. When left to himself, however, he would seldom produce any music or attempt any recognized air. Leaning back in his arm-chair of an evening, he would close his eyes and scrape carelessly at the fiddle which was thrown across his knee. Sometimes the chords were sonorous and melancholy. Occasionally they were fantastic and cheerful. Clearly they reflected the thoughts which possessed him, but whether the music aided those thoughts, or whether the playing was simply the result of a whim or fancy was more than I could determine. I might have rebelled against these exasperating solos had it not been that he usually terminated them by playing in quick succession a whole series of my favourite airs as a slight compensation for the trial upon my patience.
Fascinating, but not a model for the aspiring modern polymath I don’t think. Many smart, well-educated people assume that only certain pieces of knowledge are useful to them in their occupation and daily interests, then block out all the rest. The problem is, you don’t know up front what the useful knowledge is going to be, so you miss out on a lot of potentially useful information and all the rich connections between pieces of information that could inform your daily life. Holmes actually cast a very wide net for information, although he excluded certain subjects, and could call upon a rich library of interconnections and associations that others could not see, within seconds. He seemed to further curate this connection in his brain with music, drugs, and seemed to be somewhat manic. I find it fascinating how Watson describes him as being accomplished on the violin, but not always playing actual pieces of music but just kind of noodling around while thinking.
where are the refugees from?
Here’s a pretty awesome data analysis on where (legal) refugees who enter the U.S. come from, and where they go. It’s great both for the information, and for the presentation of the information, which is simple yet highly effective. Click on the link, but here are a few facts to whet your appetite:
- The country of origin for the most refugees to the U.S. in 2014 was Iraq, at 19.651.
- Surprisingly (to me at least), next is Burma at 14,577.
- Rounding out the top five are Somalia (9,011), Bhutan (8,316), and D.R. Congo (4,502).
- After Cuba (4,063), the next highest country from Central or South America is Columbia at 243.
I might have guessed Iraq, but I don’t think I would have guessed anything else on this list. In a number of cases, there are groups of essentially stateless people living in various places (Bhutan and Burma, for example) that the U.S. has agreed to resettle in fairly large groups. In other cases, there are just a handful of people from a given country granted refugee status in a given year. It is a little hard to make sense of why one group is allowed and the next is not.
The Man in the High Castle
Amazon is making a series about The Man in the High Castle, a 1962 novel by Philip K. Dick.
The Man in the High Castle is Dick’s alternative history story, based on a chilling hypothetical: What if the Allies had lost World War II? The action takes place on American soil in 1962, almost a generation after the war. Back when the novel was written, that was the present day. Now it’s a period piece, but that somehow makes it even more evocative.
It’s not the country we remember from the ’60s. It has been divided up by its conquerors, with the Nazis ruling the East, the Japanese ruling the West, and a strip of desolate neutral zone around the Rocky Mountains.
Both sides of the Rockies are police states, but in different ways — and there’s a resistance, an underground, working to topple the oppressive governments in charge. One of the weapons used by the resistance is a psychological one. Film canisters contain what look to be vintage newsreels, but show an alternate history that we recognize as our own: the Nazis losing, the Japanese surrendering, and America and England emerging triumphantly.
Dick is a sort of master oblique story teller – the book is like a series of short stories about the lives of fairly ordinary people, with extraordinary events occurring in the background that you learn about only gradually. It forces you to fill in the details of the story yourself using your imagination. Or you can watch the TV show where someone else does it for you. Of course, this has been done before. We can Remember it for you Wholesale (aka “Total Recall”) and Minority Report were both short stories where all Hollywood writers had to do was fill in some details. It’s really worth reading through a collection of Dick short stories, such as Selected Stories of Philip K. Dick. A couple of my favorites are Autofac and Second Variety.
the Paris climate summit
Thomas Sterner at The Economist says that there really is a near-consensus among economists on how to reduce carbon emissions.
Economists keep on repeating: all you need is a price on carbon. This is true in one narrow sense: had there—by some (peak-oil or other) magic had there been a high price on carbon then the world economy would just adapt and we would hardly notice—just like we have “adapted” to expensive gold and titanium.
But the problems are practical and political.
The problem lies in how to design the institutions and instruments that create that high price when the market does not. Subsidies must be removed, fossil fuels taxed (or subjected to permit trade) and all countries need to agree on the details in a way that all find “fair”. In Copenhagen, people hoped for a treaty that kept warming below two degrees and an agreement that was generous in giving poor countries more of the remaining space.
One idea is for a decentralized system where individual countries each create carbon markets, then link them later.
The negative attitude to heavy UN negotiations is so strong that some welcome a more “decentralised architecture” of the climate negotiations and policymaking. Some claim we do not need an agreement. It is sufficient for each country to have an individual target and permit trading scheme and then all the permit schemes could be linked together. Linked permit markets would exhibit all the advantages to trade and circumvent the need for an international agreement.
It sounds like the strategy is to set relatively low, realistic expectations for this summit and then meet them. You can say that doing something is certainly better than doing nothing. You could also say that whatever we do will be too little, too late to solve the problem. Our deeply flawed species has failed this test and we are going to suffer the consequences.