domestic terrorism

Outgoing Philadelphia mayor Michael Nutter said

“Domestic terrorism is international terrorism,” Nutter said. “There is really no level of distinction between the violence that goes on, on the streets of America on a daily basis and the episodic acts of international terrorism that also take place — primarily in cities…”

“Citizens around the world feel unsafe because of international terrorists … those same feelings exist for many in (American) communities,” Nutter said. “These criminals are terrorizing our citizens and that same level of fear of violence, the death of citizens, the destruction of property, are the same. In many cities across the United States of America on a weekend, you very well could have six, eight, 10 people shot.”

He called for a stronger relationship between federal and local officials to address American violence with the same sense of urgency and priority given to global terrorism.

Well, let’s think about how this is and isn’t true. There seem to be two ingredients that lead to violence, whether on an American street or in the Middle East. One is young men with something to be angry about, and time on their hands to do something about it. The second is a culture of violence that makes it okay to act on those angry impulses. I think you need both of these things. So to de-escalate, you need to understand and address peoples’ real grievances, keep them busy by providing economic opportunity, and gradually work on changing cultures than glorify violence.

If you just go by body count, gun violence in American cities is much worse. As Nutter pointed out, a body count of 200-300 per year from gun crime is typical in cities like Philadelphia and Baltimore. Nationwide, the body count due to murder is 15,000 per year or so. But you can put that in the context of about 30,000 suicides and 30,000 deaths by motor vehicle. So that’s a lot of violent death. If you really wanted to prevent the most violent deaths, you would tackle some of these sources rather than international terrorism, or even the domestic crazies who occasionally gun down students, children, theater and church goers.

But there is the unexpected shock aspect to terrorism, whether international or just some nut in a theater. The gun violence and car crashes on our streets are so familiar they don’t shock us any more, even though they kill orders of magnitude more people every year even compared to 9/11. After 9/11 the United States started two wars of choice and spent over a trillion dollars. This seems to have escalated the violence rather than reducing it.

I’m not suggesting international terrorism doesn’t have to be dealt with. It has to be monitored and disrupted. There is the risk that an extremist group could get their hands on a nuclear or biological weapon, and then the body count would be shocking indeed and it could seriously disrupt nations and economies for a long time.

Watson vs. Shalmaneser

A class at Georgia Tech did an experiment where artificial intelligence (“Watson”) was used to “enhance human creativity”. It sounds like a cool class:

Following research on computational creativity in our Design & Intelligence Laboratory (http://dilab.gatech.edu), most readings and discussions in the class focused on six themes: (1) Design Thinking is thinking about illstructured, open-ended problems with ill-defined goals and evaluation criteria; (2) Analogical Thinking is thinking about novel situations in terms of similar, familiar situations; (3) Meta-Thinking is thinking about one’s own knowledge and thinking; (4) Abductive Thinking is thinking about potential explanations for a set of data; (5) Visual Thinking is thinking about images and in images; and (6) Systems Thinking is thinking about complex phenomena consisting of multiple interacting components and causal processes. Further, following the research in the Design & Intelligence Laboratory, the two major creative domains of discussion in the class were (i) Engineering design and invention, and (ii) Scientific modeling and discovery. The class website provides details about the course (http://www.cc.gatech.edu/classes/AY2015/cs8803_spring)

Here’s how they actually went about using the computer:

The general design process followed by the 6 design teams for using Watson to support biologically inspired design may be decomposed into two phases: an initial learning phase and a latter open-ended research phase. The initial learning phase proceeded roughly as follows. (1) The 6 teams selected a case study of biologically inspired design of their choice from a digital library called DSL (Goel et al. 2015). For each team, the selected case study became the use case. (2) The teams started seeding Watson with articles selected from a collection of around 200 biology articles derived from Biologue. Biologue is an interactive system for retrieving biology articles relevant to a design query (Vattam & Goel 2013). (3) The teams generated about 600 questions relevant to their use cases. (4) The teams identified the best answers in their 200 biology articles for the 600 questions. (5) The teams trained Watson on the 600 question-answer pairs. (6) The 6 teams evaluated Watson for answering design questions related to their respective use cases.

The value of the computer seems to be in helping the humans sort through and screen and enormous amount of literature in a short time that otherwise could take years to go through. This theoretically could accelerate progress by allowing us to make connections that otherwise could not be made. There are going to be some brilliant ideas out there that are stuck in a dead end where they never got to the people who can use them. And there are going to be many more brilliant ideas that emerge only when older ideas are connected.

These students seem to have restricted themselves to a research database in one field (biology). But I think it could be very valuable to cross disciplinary boundaries and look for analogous ideas – let’s say, in thermodynamics, ecology, and economics. Or sociology and animal behavior. These are boundaries that have been crossed by just a few visionary people, but are often ignored by everyone else. If making connections was more of a standard practice, many more brilliant ideas would escape the information cul-de-sacs.

This reminded me of the novel Stand on Zanzibar, where “synthesist” is a job. The world is not doing so well, and governments are seeking out unconventional thinkers to try to synthesize knowledge across multiple fields and try to come up with new problems. There is also an artificial intelligence in the book as I recall, but I don’t remember it being involved in the synthesis. I don’t have a copy of the book, and this particular piece of human knowledge and creativity is walled off from me by “intellectual property” law, so I can’t benefit from it or connect it to anything else right now.

protected bike lanes now!

Helmets don’t do anything. We want protected bike lanes now!

What the researchers failed to find was any connection between helmet laws and bike-related hospitalization rates. That held true whether they looked at all cycling injuries or just traffic-specific injuries. Surprisingly, it also held true when they narrowed in on body parts protected by a helmet: the brain, head, scalp, skull, face, even neck. Since helmet laws don’t necessarily mean compliance, they looked at helmet usage, too, and once again found nothing.

The point is not that helmets do nothing or that you shouldn’t wear them. If you fall off your bike and hit your head, it’s obviously much better to have a helmet on. At a personal level, if that’s what it takes to get you riding, by all means, helmet up. But at the local government level, it’s time to recognize that other safety measures have far greater public health benefits—in particular, well-designed infrastructure that separates riders from general traffic.

Richard Florida on where we live

Richard Florida has an interesting survey on why people in the UK choose to live where they live. Some results are not too surprising. People tend to stick close to where they grew up and close to friends and family when they are younger, then gradually disperse as they get older. Housing cost is a big driver in middle age, then people get a little more choosey about type of housing and proximity to nature in older age. A couple things were surprising though – being close to work, schools and public transportation were all relatively unimportant.

I am very different than these people. Being able to live car-free is an over-arching driver for me. For me this is the only ethical choice, but I also believe it is the obvious choice for mental and physical health. Practical car free living also means being within walking distance of my job, stores and restaurants, and ultimately a decent elementary school although that’s not a factor for my family quite yet. So I picked the closest neighborhood that meets these criteria and has a housing cost I could afford. A little bit of gardening space is important to me, but that is surprisingly easy to find. Great parks, playgrounds, public squares, and easy access to Amtrak and the airport are icing on the cake. I don’t get in a car more than once a month or so, but car share, taxis and Uber are all there when I need them. I think bicycling is a wonderful way to get around on streets that are designed to be safe for it, but our U.S. street designs are not safe so I don’t do it much.

Georgescu-Roegen

From Wikipedia:

Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, born Nicolae Georgescu (4 February 1906 – 30 October 1994) was a Romanian American mathematician, statistician and economist. He is best known today for his 1971 magnum opus The Entropy Law and the Economic Process, where he argued that all natural resources are irreversibly degraded when put to use in economic activity. A paradigm founder in economics, Georgescu-Roegen’s work was seminal in establishing ecological economics as an independent academic subdiscipline in economics

He was a protégé of the renowned economist Joseph Schumpeter. His own protégés included foundational ecological economist Herman E. Daly and Kozo Mayumi who further extended Georgescu-Roegen’s theories on entropy in the study of energy analysis…

The Entropy Law and the Economic Process, described by the Library Journal as “…a great seminal work that challenges economic analysis”, is a wide-ranging technical and philosophical exposition which promotes the case that economic activity can not be adequately described without taking into account the implications of second law of thermodynamics. It notes that the discovery of the second law in the mid nineteenth century resulted in the downfall of the mechanistic dogmas of Classical Physics. Whereas the equations of Newton‘s Laws of Motion were symmetrical with respect to time, the new law introduced the concept of irreversibility. Although the processes of living organisms appear to violate the second law, Schroedinger demonstrated in What is Life? that there is no inconsistency – organisms feed on low-entropy sources of energy to build and preserve their complex structures, and dissipate the energy in a higher entropic state. It argues that social and economic endeavours are an extension of these biological processes and are governed by the same principles.

job posting

It appears I might be qualified for this job posting:

Astronaut candidates must have earned a bachelor’s degree from an accredited institution in engineering…

Check!

An advanced degree is desirable.

Check!

Candidates also must have at least three years of related, progressively responsible professional experience…

Check!

Astronaut candidates must pass the NASA long-duration spaceflight physical.

D’oh!

Larry David is Bernie Sanders

Larry David’s Bernie Sanders is perfect. In fact, all the Saturday Night Live political personalities are pretty funny right now. Which is a probably a bad sign for our country. It’s just not that easy to parodize boring responsible grownups without a lot of weird personality quirks – think Obama, Romney, Gore. Oh, and then there is Ben Carson

I’ve got a friend in Jesus…

on leadership…

It seems to be out of fashion, but I always find it interesting when people try to draw social parallels between people and animals. This reminds me of E.O. Wilson’s Sociobiology, which spends hundreds of pages on ants and termites, and after I worked my way through it I actually feel more of an affinity for these creatures and the complex mini-civilizations they have built.

Leadership in Mammalian Societies: Emergence, Distribution, Power, and Payoff

Leadership is an active area of research in both the biological and social sciences. This review provides a transdisciplinary synthesis of biological and social-science views of leadership from an evolutionary perspective, and examines patterns of leadership in a set of small-scale human and non-human mammalian societies. We review empirical and theoretical work on leadership in four domains: movement, food acquisition, within-group conflict mediation, and between-group interactions. We categorize patterns of variation in leadership in five dimensions: distribution (across individuals), emergence (achieved versus inherited), power, relative payoff to leadership, and generality (across domains). We find that human leadership exhibits commonalities with and differences from the broader mammalian pattern, raising interesting theoretical and empirical issues.

 

how to think about human capital

Here is a Morningstar study on how to think about your personal human capital in investment and retirement planning decisions.

Financial assets such as stocks and bonds are only one component of an investor’s total economic worth. Other assets, such as human capital, real estate, and pensions (e.g., Social Security retirement benefits) often represent a significant portion of an investor’s total wealth. These assets, however, are frequently ignored by practitioners when building portfolios, despite the fact that they share common risks with financial assets. This paper provides evidence that industry-specific human capital, region-specific housing wealth, and pensions have statistically significant exposures to different asset classes and risk factors. Through a series of portfolio optimizations we determine that the optimal allocation for an investor’s financial assets varies materially for different compositions of total wealth. These findings suggest that narrowly focused portfolio optimization routines that ignore human capital and outside wealth are insufficient, and that a holistic definition of wealth is necessary to build truly efficient portfolios.

Richard Thaler

Here’s a Vanguard interview with Richard Thaler on what behavioral economics is all about.

Losses have about twice the emotional impact of an equivalent gain. Fear of losses (and a tendency toward short-term thinking—I’m sneaking in a third one here) can inhibit appropriate risk-taking.

For example, investing in the stock market has historically provided much higher returns than investing in bonds or savings accounts, but stock prices fluctuate more, producing a greater risk of losses. Loss aversion can prevent investors from taking advantage of the long-term opportunities in stocks.

The second bias that causes a lot of trouble is overconfidence. Most people think they are above-average investors, and as a result they trade too much and diversify too little. Overconfidence can also lead people to invest during what appears to be a bubble, thinking they will just get out faster than others. Research shows that the more individuals trade, the lower their returns. Not surprisingly, men suffer from this problem more than women.