Tag Archives: artificial intelligence

game-changing technologies from 2020

Here are a few from various places around the web:

Nabeel S. Qureshi: From what I gather, this guy works at the RAND corporation, and is not related to the author with a similar name who passed away a couple years ago. Anyway, he has a list on Twitter:

  • mRNA vaccine
  • Apple M1 chip – it’s a computer chip, I guess a bit faster or more efficient or whatever than others
  • SpaceX rocket launch
  • GPT-3 – this is a machine learning thing that has to do with computers generating text that sounds very realistic to humans. Or to put it another way, computers can write now? But they still can’t think, that we know of. This seems concerning.
  • various initial public offerings
  • “V-shaped recovery” – optimistic, I hope it turns out to be true in retrospect
  • electric cars
  • “Crypto going mainstream” – cryptocurrency? I’m not sure how/if this affected me directly in 2020, but I do know that for the first time I used almost no cash at all from March-December.

scrolling through the comments, some of which have additional suggestions from nice people, interspersed with some nasty and stupid ones of course.

  • Bt eggplant – this is a crop with a relatively harmless insecticide built in. It basically targets a particular type of caterpillar. Okay I guess as long as it doesn’t escape into the wild and kill beneficial insects or outcompete unmodified plants. I sprinkle Bt for mosquitoes on my garden and in my storm drains.
  • technology and widespread adoption of remote working – some of this will fade after Covid, I assume, but I also assume it will settle at a level significantly higher than before Covid.
  • Neuralink, Starlink – these are micro-satellites
  • Cerebras – this is another computer chip
  • “BCI” – brain-computer interfaces? There is also a company called Buckeye Corrugated Inc. that makes cardboard. come on people, enough with the undefined acronyms
  • “6dof video capture” – “six degrees of freedom”, which has something to do with more realistic virtual reality
  • mixed reality – is this different from “augmented reality”?
  • GAN – this might be a “generative adversarial network”, which sounds like two AIs duking it out and coming up with something new
  • disinformation

Tyler Cowan, an economist who wrote “The Great Stagnation”, says the Great Stagnation is not over but it might be getting close to over. He says “the vaccine-driven recovery will measure as a rise in labor inputs, but in reality it will be pure TFP.  In 2021 (but which quarter?), true TFP will be remarkably high, maybe the highest ever?” Ooh ooh, I know this one! TFP is total factor productivity, which is the rise in productivity that can’t be attributed to capital and labor inputs. So it can represent some combination of innovations, or intangibles, errors and unknowns.

New technologies can take some time to come to fruition, even decades. So maybe we are starting to see an AI/biotech/renewable energy acceleration that we got excited about a long time ago and then forgot about? There are also some dangers and unintended consequences lurking on this list, as always.

Covid and automation

Pew has an update on activities that might be automated in the near to medium term. Covid might be speeding this up – there’s not much hard evidence offered in this article, but one expert interviewed said he thinks it has been accelerated by five years. Sadly, the articles does not contain any videos of robots at work, which are always fun.

  • taking orders in restaurants – seems like a no-brainer, most of us have probably done this
  • flipping burgers – I haven’t seen this yet
  • delivering meals and towels in hotels and hospitals – The first place I saw this was a hospital in Singapore. I played a (very low speed) game of chicken with the robot. The robot won – or I won, if winning means walking away with all my limbs. It was a children’s hospital so if I lost a limb I would have had to go to a different hospital.
  • cleaning hospital rooms – I’d really like to see this one! If they can clean hospital rooms, can they clean my house?
  • welding in factories – I don’t spend much time in factories
  • meatpacking – no, I haven’t seen a robot rip a chicken open but it seems like the kind of thing that makes sense for robots, if we are all going to continue ripping open and eating animals (which I do myself, and would be a hypocrite if I said I didn’t think we should continue doing this)
  • “Jobs also could be automated for better-educated knowledge workers, including some computer programmers, medical assistants and sales professionals.” The logic here is a little tenuous – replacing travel and convention industry jobs with online meetings. I guess, but is that really the same job being automated, or is that just a job that went away? Did refrigerators “automate” the job of delivering blocks of ice to our homes? If you were the ice man (and now you no longer cometh – I couldn’t resist), I guess that distinction doesn’t matter much to you. Refrigerators do have to be designed, manufactured, delivered, maintained, repaired, and eventually recycled or disposed of, however.
  • customer service – I think this is true, although the computers aren’t necessarily doing a good job and our expectations may have just been lowered to the point where we accept this.
  • “low wage gigs in stores and restaurants” – When I was a teenager I checked out and bagged groceries. That job has been “automated” by making the customer do it themselves. So again, is eliminating customer service the equivalent of automating it, or do we just not remember what customer service was? Not that it was ever perfect.
  • “low skill jobs in mining or factories” – I don’t spend much time in mines
  • “department stores dropping off automated orders at the curb” – a couple years ago, I would have called the police if people were banging on my door and leaving things in front of my house at odd hours. Now it’s the norm.

You can see how all this could lead logically to the idea of a universal basic income. If automation is increasing the productivity of the economy as a whole, but displacing some workers, you can take a portion of new wealth created (this is called taxes) and redistribute it. Or you can set up a sovereign wealth fund and distribute dividends from it, while saving some of the money to redistribute on a future rainy day (you don’t need to do this if you can just print as much money as you want and people will accept it worldwide, but then again maybe you should be planning for a day when that will no longer be the case). Set the tax rate right and you can help everybody at least a little while maintaining the incentive to innovate. Or you can try to be more targeted and use the money for unemployment payments, education and training. This should all be a no-brainer, but the people making the profits don’t want to give up even a small share, and they have spent decades manufacturing a toxic anti-tax culture that makes this politically very hard to do.

if the universe is a simulation, can it crash?

Hopefully, if the universe is a simulation, it is a stable one. And if it crashes, whatever intelligent entity is out there can call his or her IT guy, spin it up again, fast forward to where it left off, and we won’t know the difference. If it is a simulation, do we really want to know? This article in Scientific American says that if we really want to know, one way to test whether it is a simulation is to try to crash it on purpose. So how would you do that? One way is to build our own simulated universes, then let them build their own simulated universes, and so on. At some point, the hardware of our universe should not be able to run all those universes. So to get to this point, we need to keep working on building way faster computers.

robotic fighter planes

Robotic fighter planes are here. I remember reading one article (which I can’t find at the moment) about a test where human pilots were unable to beat them in a simulation. The simulation is unimportant, because the robots were unconstrained and allowed to sacrifice themselves if that gave them the greatest chance of taking out the enemy fighter. And that is just what they did – play chicken with the human pilots, whose instinct was to try to preserve themselves and their expensive planes. Anyway, here is another article from Forbes about a “robotic wingman” called Skyborg. Beyond the apocalyptic name (Terminator bad guys meet Star Trek bad guys?), the article focuses on intricacies of Pentagon procurement. Suffice it to say, the companies involved (who probably issued a press release that led to this article) hope there will be lots of procurement.

AI and rural jobs

This Wired article is written by a Microsoft executive originally from the southwest corner of Virginia, which is where I happen to be originally from. He gives a few examples of how technology can transform old jobs and create new jobs in out of the way places.

  • Running “automated” farming equipment requires some combination of mechanical fix-it ability and IT help desk ability.
  • Keeping the books at a nursing home chain requires some fairly advanced database skills.
  • Precision plastic parts can be molded locally by technicians trained at community college, rather than ordered from abroad.

December 2019 in Review

Most frightening and/or depressing story:

Most hopeful story:

  • Deep inside me is a little boy who still likes bugs, and I spotted some cool bugs in my 2019 garden, including endangered Monarch butterflies. So at least I made that small difference for biodiversity in a small urban garden, and others can do the same.

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both:

  • Estonia is supposedly the most digitally advanced country in the world. Finland has posted a free AI literacy course.

October 2019 in Review

Most frightening and/or depressing story:

  • A third of all of North America’s birds may have disappeared since the 1970s. (Truth be told, it was hard to pick a single most depressing story line in a month when I covered propaganda, pandemic, new class divisions created by genetic engineering, and nuclear war. But while those are scary risks for the near future, it appears the world is right in the middle of an ongoing and obvious ecological collapse, and not talking much about it.)

Most hopeful story:

  • I’ll go with hard shell tacos. They are one of the good things in this life, whether they are authentic Mexican food or “trailer park cuisine” as I tagged the story!  

Most interesting story, that was not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps was a mixture of both:

  • A list of “jobs of the future” includes algorithms, automation, and AI; customer experience; environmental; fitness and wellness; health care; legal and financial services; transportation; and work culture. I’ll oversimplify this list as computer scientist, engineer, doctor, lawyer, banker, which don’t sound all that different than the jobs of the past. But it occurs to me that these are jobs where the actual tools people are using and day-to-day work tasks evolve with the times, even if the intended outcomes are basically the same. What might be new is that even in these jobs, you need to make an effort to keep learning every day throughout your career and life if you want to keep up.

There will still be openings for evil HR cats.

Cognizant Jobs of the Future Index

What kind of education and job skills should you recommend to young people today (assuming career/economic success is the goal. Yes, the world needs philosophers and musicians but sadly that is not a path to material success for many)? I figure biotech, materials science, robotics and computer science (deep theoretical understanding and/or engineering, not just code writing). Again, if material/economic success is the goal, I think you need knowledge and skills that are attractive to the private sector. (My own are mostly of interest to the public sector. I don’t regret my choices but this does put a ceiling on the potential size of my bank account.) There should be plenty of jobs in education and health care services, but not necessarily well paying ones at least in the U.S. I think there will always be plumbers and electricians.

Okay, now let’s see if I’m right. Here is the Cognizant Jobs of the Future Index. There are way too many jobs to list here, but their categories are:

  • algorithms, automation, and AI (okay, this is the computer science route, although someone could also try the math/statistics or even actuarial science path)
  • customer experience (this appears to cover what might be traditionally known as sales and marketing)
  • environmental (includes energy-related fields and environmental engineering – well, what do you know, maybe my choices aren’t so bad after all…)
  • fitness and wellness (home health care, physical therapy, etc. – things an aging population will need and hard to automate at least in the near term)
  • health care (includes the obvious, but also data science, genetic related, and medical device engineering related jobs)
  • legal and financial services (yes, lawyers will still be a necessary evil)
  • transportation (more on the engineering and planning side, not so much taxi and truck drivers…)
  • work culture (your human resources department will also continue to be a necessary evil)

So, I think a kid could do worse than a degree in chemical, mechanical or electrical engineering, then specialize from there. (Civil/environmental is nice…but again…the public sector thing). If you want to be a doctor or lawyer, go for it. The world will still need artists, philosophers, and in general people who can think, understand systems and solve problems, but it is still unclear when we will start valuing these things.