Here’s a new entry in the genre of self-flying urban helicopters, brought to you by the military industrial complex.
Tag Archives: transportation
April 2018 in Review
Most frightening stories:
- According to a UN-affiliated study, “Conflict will remain a major driver of food insecurity in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, while drought is likely to worsen crop and livestock output, increasing food insecurity in countries such as Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya”
- BREAKING NEWS: Global warming is cause by increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Seriously.
- That big California earthquake is still coming.
Most hopeful stories:
- There was a slate of hopeful climate news this month (I couldn’t bring myself to pick just one, or even just three of these.) Long-promised smaller, safer, more modular nuclear reactors are starting to come to market. Maybe nuclear waste can be stored safely and cheaply in deep horizontal tunnels. There’s a new X-Prize for turning carbon emissions into useful products. Coal really is losing out to renewables. And Exxon may eventually pay for its climate crimes.
- It’s possible that your brain could be scanned at a high resolution so that your consciousness can be revived far in the future. The down side is that scientists would have to kill you first to do that with anything similar to current technology. Well, technology does have a tendency to improve.
- There are free online resources to teach general systems theory in middle school.
Most interesting stories, that were not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps were a mixture of both:
- There’s a phone app that can identify plants and animals in your back yard.
- A space hotel could open as soon as 2020.
- Dog food and people food made from synthetic meat are here.
Uber Air
March 2018 in Review
Most frightening stories:
- One reason the U.S. blunders into war repeatedly is that it does not do a good job of analyzing the motives of its adversaries.
- International investors may be losing confidence in the U.S. dollar. And a serious financial crisis in China is a possibility, although China is also trying to become a “cyber superpower“.
- One reason propaganda works is that even knowledgeable people are more likely to believe a statement the more often it is repeated.
Most hopeful stories:
- One large sprawling city could be roughly the economic equivalent of several small high-density cities. This could potentially be good news for the planet if you choose in favor of the latter, and preserve the spaces in between as some combination of natural land and farm land.
- The problems with free parking, and solutions to the problems, are well known. This could potentially be good news if anything were to be actually done about it. Self-parking cars could be really fantastic for cities.
- The coal industry continues to collapse, and even the other fossil fuels are saying they are a bunch of whining losers. And yes, I consider this positive. I hope there aren’t too many old ladies whose pensions depend on coal at this point.
Most interesting stories, that were not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps were a mixture of both:
- Some people really do win the lottery more than they should.
- You can buy a computerized chicken coop or cider maker.
- You can do network analysis or call Matlab in R.
subway construction cost
A New York Times article has some stats on the cost of subway construction in New York City compared to elsewhere:
- NYC: $2.5-3.5 billion per mile
- Paris: $0.45 billion per mile
- Madrid: $100 million per mile
- San Francisco: $1 billion per mile
- Seattle: $0.5 billion per mile
This particular article doesn’t cover costs in Asia. From my personal experience in Singapore, I know that low-cost “guest labor” is part of the equation there. And while environmental, health and safety regulations were relatively stringent there, that is certainly not the case everywhere. Still, nothing like that is going on in France or Spain to the best of my knowledge.
Dubai tests “autonomous mobility pods”
These things look more like horizontal elevators than cars.
January 2018 in Review
Most frightening stories:
- Larry Summers says we have a better than even chance of recession in the next three years. Sounds bad, but I wonder what that stat would look like for any randomly chosen three year period in modern history.
- The United States is involved in at least seven wars: Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya, Somalia, and Pakistan. Nuclear deterrence may not actually the work.
- Cape Town, South Africa is in imminent danger of running out of water. Longer term, there are serious concerns about snowpack-dependent water supplies serving large urban populations in Asia and western North America.
Most hopeful stories:
- There are some new ideas and practical examples of urban green infrastructure planning that take full advantage of ecological and social science to maximize benefits. Also, there are some advances in the idea of using gamification in urban planning. Biophilic Cities is a new (to me) group trying to create “cities of abundant nature in close proximity to large numbers of urbanites.
- There is new evidence that reading is really good for the developing brain.
- Practical wireless charging may finally be getting close. End the tyranny of the cord!
Most interesting stories, that were not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps were a mixture of both:
- Sales of electric vehicles may take off in 2018. Sales of autonomous vehicles will eventually take off, but 2018 may not be the year.
- Just when people on the street might have heard of CRISPR, there are already newer and more powerful gene editing techniques coming online, including the idea of gene circuits. There is some doubt about whether CRISPR will ultimately work in humans. And in other biotech news, brain scans have reached the point where they can reveal an image you are picturing in your mind.
- If you are a white supremacist, it’s okay to have an Asian girlfriend according to the New York Times. The unfortunate corollary would seem to be that if someone is accusing you of being a white supremacist, you can’t just get an Asian girlfriend and expect that to be a sufficient defense.
November 2017 in Review
Most frightening stories:
- I thought about war and peace in November. Well, mostly war. War is frightening. The United States of America appears to be flailing about militarily all over the world guided by no foreign policy. Big wars of the past have sometimes been started by overconfident leaders thinking they could get a quick military victory, only to find themselves bogged down in something much larger and more intractable than they imagined. But enemies are good to have – the Nazis understood that a scared population will believe what you tell them.
- We should probably be sounding the alarm just as urgently, if not more urgently, on biodiversity as we are on global warming. But while the case against global warming is so simple most children can grasp it, the case against biodiversity loss is more difficult to articulate.
- A theory of mass extinctions of the past is that they have been caused by massive volcanic eruptions burning off underground fossil fuels on a massive scale. Only, not quite at the rate we are doing it now. Rapid collapse of ice cliffs is another thing that might get us.
Most hopeful stories:
- Donald Trump does not appear to be trying to destroy the Federal Reserve.
- You can get a good robot vacuum cleaner now for about $200.
- In discussions of urban green infrastructure, provisioning ecosystem services have been largely ignored, but the potential is there. Permaculture is still out there.
Most interesting stories, that were not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps were a mixture of both:
- You can get an actuarial estimate of your life span online. You can also search your local library catalog automatically whenever you consider buying a book online. Libraries in small, medium, and large towns all over the U.S. appear to be included.
- “Transportation as a service” may cause the collapse of the oil industry. Along similar but more mainstream lines, NACTO has released a “Blueprint for Autonomous Urbanism“, which is my most popular post at the moment I am writing this.
- It’s possible that the kind of ideal planned economy envisioned by early Soviet economists (which never came to pass) could be realized with the computing power and algorithms just beginning to be available now.
October 2017 in Review
Most frightening stories:
- Donald Trump’s proposed tax policies are based on numbers he just makes up. This is not a matter of differences of political opinion, it is a matter of made-up numbers that can be compared to actual measured numbers taken from reality. Large swaths of the public seem unaware or unconcerned about this difference. large enough swaths of the public are concerned enough, however, that we are accepting of a situation where the (very recently retired members of the) military appears to be taking a very active role in executive branch decision making.
- U.S. diplomats in Cuba are being subjected to some kind of directional noise weapon, and nobody knows who is doing it or why.
- It is possible that a catastrophic loss of insects is occurring and that it may lead to ecological collapse. Also, there is new evidence that pollution is harming human health and even the global economy more than previously thought.
Most hopeful stories:
- The U.S. Democratic party could consider embracing an anti-monopoly platform. Spun the right way, this would be a pro-business policy in the sense of creating a level playing field for businesses of all sizes to compete and innovate, rather than a system that is unfairly skewed in favor of big business at the expense of small business, workers, and consumers.
- Evaporation theoretically could be harnessed to produce enormous amounts of energy for human use.
- Supersonic (civilian) travel is almost back.
Most interesting stories, that were not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps were a mixture of both:
- A lot of the recyclables picked up at curbside in the U.S. are shipped to China for use as raw materials for manufactured goods that will be exported back to the U.S.
- Even if autonomous trucks are not ready for tricky urban situations, they could be autonomous on the highway with a small number of remote-control drivers guiding a large number of tricks through tricky urban maneuvers, not unlike the way ports or trainyards are run now. There is also new thinking on how to transition highways gradually through a mix of human and computer-controlled vehicles, and eventually to full computer control. New research shows that even a small number of autonomous vehicles mixed in with human drivers will be safer for everyone. While some reports predict autonomous taxis will be available in the 2020s, Google says that number is more like 2017.
- I mused about what it would take for a metropolitan area in the U.S. to achieve statehood. It seems like a tough uphill climb but I can imagine it having benefits not just for the metro area but for the economy and country as a whole.
I’ve been reading a little about Socrates lately. There was a debate in ancient Athens, during its radical experiments with direct democracy and free speech, that a smooth-talking rhetorical style could tend to carry the day over solidly argued logic and facts. So these concerns are not new, and there probably was no golden age when groups of Americans or other human beings were a lot better at logic-based decision making than we are now. Still, what is frustrating is that any individual human being clearly is capable of logic-based decision making, and yet we are repeatedly swayed and misled by faulty logic in groups.
The insect thing is really wild. I just spent three weeks in tropical Asia and was struck by how un-buggy it was compared to past trips. Which probably has absolutely nothing to do with the peer-reviewed journal article mentioned above. My garden in Philadelphia actually was quite buggy this summer, somewhat ironically with the striped mosquito varieties that have drained significant quantities of my blood on past trips to tropical Asia.