Tag Archives: U.S. politics

Trump and the next pandemic

Add to the stupidity of the Trump administration slashing funding to prepare for and respond to the next deadly pandemic outbreak. These are the unwanted border crossings we should actually be worried about, and by helping people in countries where diseases are breaking out we could also be protecting ourselves.

The investments made after the 2014 Ebola crisis have been slashed in recent proposed federal budgets from the Centers for Disease Control, the agency that works to stop deadly diseases in their tracks, and the U.S. Agency for International Development, which responds to international disasters, including the Ebola outbreak. Moreover, Timothy Ziemer, the top White House official in charge of pandemic preparedness, has left his job, and the biosecurity office he ran was summarily disbanded…

Perhaps most terrifying, difficult to treat and highly fatal strains of H7N9 avian influenza are spreading throughout China.

This strain of bird flu causes rapid respiratory illness with associated multiorgan dysfunction that’s easily spread by a small droplet. That’s why it’s so difficult to control and why recurrent epidemics continue to crop up: There have been five epidemics of H7N9 since 2013 in China alone, the most recent between the fall of 2016 and fall of 2017. Across these epidemics, among the 1,565 confirmed cases, about 40 percent of infected individuals died.

the next financial crisis

There seems to be increasing concern among economists, journalists and politicians that another severe financial crisis could be looming in the next few years. Of course, the next recession, war or disaster is inevitable and to be expected at some point. The question is how resilient or panic-prone our financial system is when something inevitably happens.

Axios suggests that as advanced economies raise interest rates, they could force debt-laden emerging markets into situations where they can’t afford interest payments. Turkey is of particular concern, and owes large amounts of money to European countries. A trade war is also a concern.

Nouriel Roubini gives ten reasons why a severe financial crisis may be coming, starting with interest rates being too low to give countries any chance to react to a crisis by lowering them (which is probably why they are trying to gradually raise them in the first place.) He also mentions poor (or no) U.S. policies towards trade, immigration, and infrastructure, and high-speed trading algorithms.

Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard, argues that U.S. policy is unnecessarily pro-cyclical in in terms of expanded government spending, lowered taxes, reduced capital requirements for banks, and political criticism of the Federal Reserve.

Let’s hope a consensus among the experts is actually a contrarian indicator.

July 2018 in Review

Most frightening stories:

  • The UN is warning as many as 10 million people in Yemen could face starvation by the end of 2018 due to the military action by Saudi Arabia and the U.S. The U.S. military is involved in combat in at least 8 African countries. And Trump apparently wants to invade Venezuela.
  • The Trump administration is attacking regulations that protect Americans from air pollution and that help ensure our fisheries are sustainable. Earth Overshoot Day is on August 1 this year, two days earlier than last year.
  • The U.S. has not managed a full year of 3% GDP growth since 2005, due to slowing growth and the working age population and slowing productivity growth, and these trends seem likely to continue even if the current dumb policies that make them worse were to be reversed. Some economists think a U.S. withdrawal from the World Trade Organization could trigger a recession (others do not).

Most hopeful stories:

  • Looking at basic economic and health data over about a 50-200 time frame reminds us that enormous progress has been made, even though the last 20 years or so seems like a reversal.
  • Simultaneous Policy is an idea where multiple legislatures around the world agree to a single policy on a fairly narrow issue (like climate change or arms reductions).
  • I was heartened by the compassion Americans showed for children trapped in a cave 10,000 miles away. The news coverage did a lot to humanize these children, and it would be nice to see more of that closer to home.

Most interesting stories, that were not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps were a mixture of both:

June 2018 in Review

Most frightening stories:

Most hopeful stories:

Most interesting stories, that were not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps were a mixture of both:

  • Explicit taxes to fund wars were the norm in the U.S. right up to the Vietnam war.
  • In technology news, Google and Airbus are considering teaming to build a space catapult. The Hyperloop might be a real thing between Chicago’s downtown and airport.
  • Just under 0.1% of migrants crossing the U.S. border are members of criminal gang such as MS-13. About half of border crossers are from Mexico while the other half are mostly from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some are fleeing violence or repression, while others are simply looking for economic opportunity.

The Moscow Midterms?

Back in April 2018, Clare Malone from Five Thirty Eight wrote a sort of speculative fiction piece about how Russian intelligence agents could attempt to hijack the November (2018) U.S. midterm elections. Now that we have just found out a lot more facts about how they did in fact successfully influence the 2016 election, this is no longer so speculative.

In my view, interfering with another country’s election is something more than an act of intelligence gathering but something less than an act of war. We can act all shocked and surprised that a hostile foreign intelligence agencies would dare to interfere with our elections. But the fact is, hostile foreign intelligence agencies do this, and the U.S. has done it to others, particularly during the Cold War and particularly in the developing world, a lot. So we don’t exactly have the moral high ground. Shame on the FBI and our other counter-intelligence agencies for letting the Russians get away with this. Then again, going back to the Cold War, we should remember this is the KGB and they have always had our number.

So we now know that Russian intelligence interfered in the 2016 U.S. election, and we know beyond a shadow of a doubt that they communicated with members of Trump’s campaign team. The evidence for these things is clear, disinformation and propaganda to the contrary. It remains to be seen whether there is clear evidence that people in the Trump campaign new they were talking to Russian agents and actively accepted their help or even helped them. If this can be shown, then the people involved are enemies of our country and need to be treated as such. And if Trump himself was involved or knew his campaign was involved, he is an enemy of the country and needs to be treated as such.

Now, if this evidence is produced, it seems unlikely that the immoral, cowardly farce that the Republican party has become will act on the evidence if they are in charge. At that point, I think the rule of law will truly be lost. Trump’s people might be convicted, he might pardon them, and Congress might stand by and let it happen. If the Democrats are in charge and this evidence is produced, I hope they have the courage to impeach. Impeachment would make sure the evidence sees the light of day in full public view, even if a cowardly Republican Senate ultimately refused to convict. So this midterm election really is important, and it really is critical that our government do a competent job of counterintelligence leading up to it.

Trump wants to invade Venezuela

According to the AP, Trump has repeatedly pressed his aides to consider invading Venezuela. Any claim that this could be about democracy or human rights simply is not credible. Regional stability? Venezuela’s neighbors seemed aghast at the suggestion. Oil? That must be it, although the former CEO of Exxon was Secretary of State at the time and was also aghast. We’re in year 2 and counting of the Trump presidency with no war – can we make it to the end?

Who’s really crossing the U.S. border?

This article is from Lawfare, and the answer is interesting.

First off, while the current administration has tried to tie Central American migrants to MS-13, government data reveals that gang members crossing irregularly are the rare exceptions. Since the Trump administration took office, the Border Patrol has detected fewer gang members crossing irregularly than during the Obama administration. In FY2017, these detections amounted to 0.075 percent of the total number of migrants (228 MS-13 members out of 303,916 total migrants). When combined with MS-13’s rival, the Barrio 18 gang, the number rises only slightly to 0.095 percent. This is far from the “infestation” of violent gang members described by the president…

The face of migration has also changed. Back in 2000, Mexican nationals made up 98 percent of the total migrants and Central Americans (referring to Honduran, Guatemalan, and Salvadoran migrants) only one percent. Today, Central Americans make up closer to 50 percent.

A declining Mexican birth rate, a stable economy, and the U.S. border buildup have all contributed to the decrease in migration from Mexico. But as Mexican irregular migration has plummeted, Central American migration has simultaneously picked up. Until 2011, Central Americans constituted less than ten percent of total U.S.-Mexico border apprehensions, but by 2012 they constituted 25 percent, and by 2014 they numbered half of all illicit border crossers. While migration from each country within the Northern Triangle (El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras) has fluctuated over time, each country has sent roughly similar numbers of people in the aggregate. From FY1995 to FY2016, the U.S. Border Patrol apprehended around 500,000 citizens from each country. In other words, it’s not a coincidence that most recent news stories about migrant parents separated from their children feature families from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

People from Honduras and El Salvador are often fleeing urban gang violence, while those from Guatemala are often fleeing rural poverty.

 

Trump may bail out obsolete coal-fired power plants

According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration is about to subsidize obsolete, inefficient, and polluting coal-fired power plants. Remember the Republican sound bite about “picking winners and losers”? Hypocrites.

The plan cuts to the heart of a debate over the reliability and resiliency of a rapidly evolving U.S. electricity grid. Nuclear and coal-fired power plants are struggling to compete against cheap natural gas and renewable electricity. As nuclear and coal plants are decommissioned, regulators have been grappling with how to ensure that the nation’s power system can withstand extreme weather events and cyber-attacks…

The Energy Department would be relying partly on the Federal Power Act — the so-called Section 202 authority — that lets the administration order guaranteed profits for power plants that can store large amounts of fuel on site. And the Energy Department would be tapping the 68-year-old Defense Production Act, a Cold War-era statute once invoked by President Harry Truman to help the steel industry…

The issue is a priority for some of the president’s top supporters, including coal moguls Robert E. Murray and Joseph Craft of Alliance Resource Partners, who donated a million dollars to the president’s inauguration. The move would be one of the most direct efforts by Trump to make good on campaign promises to revive the nation’s shrinking coal industry…

May 2018 in Review

Most frightening stories:

Most hopeful stories:

  • There are some new ideas for detecting the potential for rapid ecological change or collapse of ecosystems.
  • Psychedelics might produce similar benefits to meditation.
  • Microgrids, renewables combined with the latest generation of batteries, are being tested in Puerto Rico.

Most interesting stories, that were not particularly frightening or hopeful, or perhaps were a mixture of both: